Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 9. (Read 24795 times)
And for comparison with the recent drop from $145 is this analogous chart from August 2011. Note that the price dropped over 50% from the failed attempt at a resistance point, and then proceeded to recover nearly all the losses.
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Buy as much <100 as you can.
Agreed, but patience I believe will be rewarded.
I don't believe the mid-term bear is over, before we visit $95 in the following max 48 hours. Buy as much <100 as you can.
(If we don't do it in that timeframe, I would go shopping again)
(If we don't do it in that timeframe, I would go shopping again)
Alert - Perhaps the first, and largest, capitulation is at hand
The technical support at $120 is relatively strong, both as a numerical point for building bid walls and as a historically stable price point. Consequently, I believe the first and greatest capitulation of this bubble will occur as the price drops below this support. To the degree that this bubble follows the pattern set by the June 2011 bubble, expect this capitulation to be the largest, and to go deeper than most expect.
This expected capitulation is not the bottom.
The technical support at $120 is relatively strong, both as a numerical point for building bid walls and as a historically stable price point. Consequently, I believe the first and greatest capitulation of this bubble will occur as the price drops below this support. To the degree that this bubble follows the pattern set by the June 2011 bubble, expect this capitulation to be the largest, and to go deeper than most expect.
This expected capitulation is not the bottom.
It is possible. However I see $200 by month's end a near certainty.
Still seems to be a lot of selling pressure. Looking at the orders, every time the price climbs up a little, a a few big sells take place causing the price to lose the ground it just made. I noticed a lot of people saying that if the price breaks $120, there could be a sharp downward trend caused by panic sellers.
21 days after the April 10 peak
The last 24 hours have witnessed relentless selling pressure. After the failure to buy through resistance at $146, the bitcoin price has dropped to $128 while making two attempts to sell through support at $127. A third attempt is underway as of this writing.
Based upon the decline back to underlying trend predicted by speculative financial bubble theory, and comparison with the June, 2011 bubble, I continue to expect the trading emphasis to shift to defending the support at $120, rather than pushing above $160 to new highs.
The last 24 hours have witnessed relentless selling pressure. After the failure to buy through resistance at $146, the bitcoin price has dropped to $128 while making two attempts to sell through support at $127. A third attempt is underway as of this writing.
Based upon the decline back to underlying trend predicted by speculative financial bubble theory, and comparison with the June, 2011 bubble, I continue to expect the trading emphasis to shift to defending the support at $120, rather than pushing above $160 to new highs.
need 520 000$ by day for absorbe just the new bitcoin at this price ^^
+ the seller ^^
+ the seller ^^
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Explain this 'motivation to sell'.
Commonly, stop loss orders are used by traders to limit losses without regard to duration after purchase. Therefore, as prices drop below $135 - that I have labelled as the start of this bubble's Sucker's Rally - those dropping prices are increasingly likely to trigger stop-loss sell orders.
The most recent wave of big money buyers now has a strong motivation to sell.
Explain this 'motivation to sell'. I don't mean to be cliche but, buy low sell high?? How are the recent wave of big money buyers motivated to sell low two days after they purchased?
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
$133 is half the all time high of $266 and thus could be an expected point of resistance for the price to retrace back upwards.
Interesting, thanks for sharing.
$133 is half the all time high of $266 and thus could be an expected point of resistance for the price to retrace back upwards.
The most recent wave of big money buyers now has a strong motivation to sell.
Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?
I do not. I'm all fiat on MtGox and I'll be all fiat until we reach the medium term bottom, which we haven't done yet.
While the bid sum is high, it's not growing. It is going to decrease eventually.
SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.
rpietila, reading your posts I wonder... Can I smoke some of what you are smoking?
Sure I'll show you what I have ... if you just come and see me
Do you have MARIHUANA ? (was the question "what you are smoking")
I think you need something stronger than that to have his high.
Just trying to recognize where we are ;-)
SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.
rpietila, reading your posts I wonder... Can I smoke some of what you are smoking?
Sure I'll show you what I have ... if you just come and see me
Do you have MARIHUANA ? (was the question "what you are smoking")
I think you need something stronger than that to have his high.
SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.
rpietila, reading your posts I wonder... Can I smoke some of what you are smoking?
Sure I'll show you what I have ... if you just come and see me
Do you have MARIHUANA ? (was the question "what you are smoking")
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In 2005 gold became affordable for mainstream. Look at the chart what happened to its price in the subsequent years.
Wonderful chart that would support your point except that well known gold bubbles have different time frames than yours.
Considering gold as long term investment, there were actually only one bubble in the winter of 1979-1980 followed panic caused by the invasion in Afghanistan. June 2011 bitcoin bubble is comparable to that.
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But the fact that so many sellers are hoping to rebuy lower leads me to believe they may not have the opportunity.
That's exactly what happened back in the summer of 2011. After the first bubble peak, much of the commentary around here was 'was that the bottom?'. The bubble decline takes so long to play out because the most reluctant buyer gets the best price - and there will be a lot of buyers as you say.
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