Why? I'm pretty sure some were still hoping to get it cheaper at $10.
And they did.
Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 10. (Read 24795 times)
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Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.
But is your belief weakened by the likelihood that a great many of those bids below $120 are simply waiting to spend the cash raised when they sold earlier? My sleep-at-night bids are already there. Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?
Maybe new money is waning and their lack of bids is obscured by the new bids from recent sellers. And note those new bids are relatively larger in amount due to profit taken.
No... that strengthens my bullishness. If the money was moved off exchange that would be bearish. But the fact that so many sellers are hoping to rebuy lower leads me to believe they may not have the opportunity.
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Perhaps we just continue on the adaptation curve set on January: On average, every week sees a 15% price appreciation. When we go to uncharted territory, and go to 50%-100% per week, that is bubblish and due for a correction.
Or maybe the 4-5x annual bitcoin price increase 2010 to Dec 2012 is enough to persuade your customers to buy and hold. No need to include the Jan-Feb rate which I argue is part, maybe the most important part, of the bubble.
For the average Joe "cashing out" from Gox is even more difficult that buying its firts Bitcoins...
Everything needs to improve A LOT - BTC need to be widely available and easy to buy and to sell for it to be really huge. Now its very difficult for a newbie, the learning curve is sharp.
Everything needs to improve A LOT - BTC need to be widely available and easy to buy and to sell for it to be really huge. Now its very difficult for a newbie, the learning curve is sharp.
Everything you describe is happening.
Besides buying goxmoney is a neverending source of both profits and lulz for the otc dealers like me.
Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.
Inconvenient Truth(TM).
Ask sum is easy to manipulate when the price is rather stable. You just send gazillion coins to gox and list them for sale.
When it is rocky, you can't do it without risk of your coins getting eaten. That's why the ask sum was very low during the last top of 266 - only the ones actually in the business of selling dared to "ask" anything.
Bid sum is now higher than back then. Hmm...
Perhaps we just continue on the adaptation curve set on January: On average, every week sees a 15% price appreciation. When we go to uncharted territory, and go to 50%-100% per week, that is bubblish and due for a correction.
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In 2005 gold became affordable for mainstream. Look at the chart what happened to its price in the subsequent years.
Wonderful chart that would support your point except that well known gold bubbles have different time frames than yours.
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Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.
But is your belief weakened by the likelihood that a great many of those bids below $120 are simply waiting to spend the cash raised when they sold earlier? My sleep-at-night bids are already there. Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?
Maybe new money is waning and their lack of bids is obscured by the new bids from recent sellers.
Yeah, the truth is that taking out the money from the system is much more difficult that sending it in. Fuck, the apostille thing is crazy, the Gox guys take FOREVER to go through the docs, then you program a withdraw and it takes WEEKS to be processed... For the average Joe "cashing out" from Gox is even more difficult that buying its firts Bitcoins...
Everything needs to improve A LOT - BTC need to be widely available and easy to buy and to sell for it to be really huge. Now its very difficult for a newbie, the learning curve is sharp.
In 2005 gold became affordable to mainstream. Look at the chart what happened to its price in the subsequent years.
Bitcoin goes the same way but it takes much less time. Good look, bears, waiting for $30/btc.
Bitcoin goes the same way but it takes much less time. Good look, bears, waiting for $30/btc.
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Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.
But is your belief weakened by the likelihood that a great many of those bids below $120 are simply waiting to spend the cash raised when they sold earlier? My sleep-at-night bids are already there. Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?
Maybe new money is waning and their lack of bids is obscured by the new bids from recent sellers. And note those new bids are relatively larger in amount due to profit taken.
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All of the recent developments warrants this price we are at.
Ah yes.
But back in January, the price was warranted too - at $13.50. We all can see what has changed in those months, but the flood of new money that was the biggest change - appears to be waning.
I don't agree it is waning:
Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.
Sure, we can expect a decline in the price discovery phase, but still Bitcoin feels stronger than ever. Short term bear case? Good opportunity to buy more BTC.
I don't know how you bears can pretend that you believe any of the FUD..
Reality is, bitcoin's usage is growing at a 10-30% weekly rate. Hard time believing that it would not be the price trend also.
When I went to a certain grade at school back in 1998, two people in the class had a mobile phone. When we graduated 9 months later, everyone except two had it.
Bitcoin will be the same, and year will be 2013. Only difference is that with mobiles, you always pay. With bitcoin, everyone who buys below the long term fair value of $300k/BTC, gets rich. This will only aid adoption, not hinder it.
Well, there are different indicators that point on opposite directions.
From one side, a long term bear market is a reasonable outcome of this correction: price declines so new money interested in riding the bubble stops flowing in, holders start to get nervous and want to secure some profits, price declines even more and there you have the downwards spiral...
But, this time the feeling is much different compared to 2011. News are still positive (in 2011 we had only FUD in all media), a lot of people is working to support BTC economy, infrastructure its on the way to improvement... And I would like to remark that news are still positive because more people is really understanding what is Bitcoin and how it works. This is really important. Yes, it's true that most of people is only interested in the get-rich-quick scheme, and that's why rise in price is directly proportional to new money flowing in. BUT, we still have a lot of both influential and normal people embracing Bitcoin.
Sure, we can expect a decline in the price discovery phase, but still Bitcoin feels stronger than ever. Short term bear case? Good opportunity to buy more BTC.
From one side, a long term bear market is a reasonable outcome of this correction: price declines so new money interested in riding the bubble stops flowing in, holders start to get nervous and want to secure some profits, price declines even more and there you have the downwards spiral...
But, this time the feeling is much different compared to 2011. News are still positive (in 2011 we had only FUD in all media), a lot of people is working to support BTC economy, infrastructure its on the way to improvement... And I would like to remark that news are still positive because more people is really understanding what is Bitcoin and how it works. This is really important. Yes, it's true that most of people is only interested in the get-rich-quick scheme, and that's why rise in price is directly proportional to new money flowing in. BUT, we still have a lot of both influential and normal people embracing Bitcoin.
Sure, we can expect a decline in the price discovery phase, but still Bitcoin feels stronger than ever. Short term bear case? Good opportunity to buy more BTC.
I dunno why people want to sell to me for 5% less but that's what they do. They also pay me 10% over.
Yes, I bought from rpietila paying 10% over gox's price. However, I got those bitcoins immediately without the need of waiting until my wire comes to the Gox. A week after the deal I gained 40% profit from that amount. That's why I preferred to deal with rpietila rather than with gox.
Gox is a big tape-painting club. The real bitcoin flows are moving to OTC as we speak. Most of the trade in gox is trading, not legit movements of bitcoins to new owners.
I'm not sure I understand the difference.
Also, by OTC are you referring to the IRC channel? Why is someone selling you btc for 5% less than they would get on mtgox? Volume? Privacy?
Trading = buying and selling your own position, to make a profit/loss depending if you're right
Dealing/brokering = buying and selling to the client, to make a commission regardless of the price
I do both. The IRC channel I don't know. "OTC" is a general term for all trade that happens outside of the real-time exchange.
I dunno why people want to sell to me for 5% less but that's what they do. They also pay me 10% over.
SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.
rpietila, reading your posts I wonder... Can I smoke some of what you are smoking?
Sure I'll show you what I have ... if you just come and see me
SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.
rpietila, reading your posts I wonder... Can I smoke some of what you are smoking?
Gox is a big tape-painting club. The real bitcoin flows are moving to OTC as we speak. Most of the trade in gox is trading, not legit movements of bitcoins to new owners.
I'm not sure I understand the difference.
Also, by OTC are you referring to the IRC channel? Why is someone selling you btc for 5% less than they would get on mtgox? Volume? Privacy?
And on which price are those OTC based?
In the future, they will be based on Dealer Network Fix (3 times per day). Today they are based on gox, with a 6-15% margin on top.
I also buy bitcoins for 5% below gox.
And on which price are those OTC based?
Gox is a big tape-painting club. The real bitcoin flows are moving to OTC as we speak. Most of the trade in gox is trading, not legit movements of bitcoins to new owners.
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