Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 5.

Wary

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 23, 2014, 09:58:46 PM

I do not believe that there is a chance SR btc will be sold above the market (unless market suddenly crashes after the bids were made).

I've no opinion about this.

Quote

I also think many /most of the bidders will be opportunistic buyers: for likes of SecondMarket, Bitpay or Coinbase, it always makes sense to buy btc at considerable discount.

If they are even moderately bullish, they would believe the current price is probably very good discount comparing with half-year from now. So if they won't be able to win on the auction, they would took the second-best option, i.e. buy for market prices.

Quote

I do not understand why many people think that buying these btc from US government should be such "once in a lifetime" opportunity for institutional investors Huh

Agree, that is not a big deal. But a lot of them are now hesitating - to buy or not to buy. The auction adds couple of small weights to the "buy" scale: a bit safer, a bit cheaper.

Quote

There are many other options for them to buy substantial amounts of btc perfectly legally and safely. The second condition likely excludes exchanges Wink

, but they can still buy from big miners, SecondMarket, early adopters, btc processors (e.g. Bitpay) etc

Agree. But a bitcoin, purchased off-exchange would affects prices in exactly the same way as a bitcoin, purchased on-exchange. It would just take a bit more time for the price change information to propagate.

EDIT: About the last point. The information would propagate quite fast if somebody is doing an arbitrage between on and off-exchange. If nobody does it now yet, somebody would be doing it pretty soon. I imagine, it would be quite a big business in China and other BTC-hostile countries.

EDIT2: To oda.krell Sorry for hijacking your thread. Grin

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 06:02:00 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 23, 2014, 05:40:09 PM

So who is going to buy btc on the way up when everybody seem long already

If the auction bidders, after losing the auction, will stick to their decision to buy BTC... Super-optimistic scenario: If competition at the auction is 10:1, it would mean 180M$ of fresh money. If almost nobody sells after the auction, like in rally stage, 1$ of fresh money pushes BTC capitalisation to 20$. Which increases the price on 180M$*20*(600/13000000000)=$166, i.e. to $770. Then media attention, hype, ATH, 5K$.

I do not believe that there is a chance SR btc will be sold above the market (unless market suddenly crashes after the bids were made). I also think many /most of the bidders will be opportunistic buyers: for likes of SecondMarket, Bitpay or Coinbase, it always makes sense to buy btc at considerable discount.

I do not understand why many people think that buying these btc from US government should be such "once in a lifetime" opportunity for institutional investors Huh

. There are many other options for them to buy substantial amounts of btc perfectly legally and safely. The second condition likely excludes exchanges Wink

, but they can still buy from big miners, SecondMarket, early adopters, btc processors (e.g. Bitpay) etc

cbeast

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Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 08:23:13 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 07:29:21 PM

Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 05:14:58 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 02:56:35 PM

I am saying that kinematics can be used to predict the future with certainty, but TA cannot. TA therefore is pseudoscience.

Then you should use kinematics to predict future BTC prices. With certainty. Grin

But seriously, you've made 4 posts, but I still cannot understand which my statement, exactly, you are trying to refute?

I didn't say you made a statement in my first post. My interpretation was that you were implying that TA is analogous to math and physics when clearly it is analogous to astrology. You then went on to state that you only meant to imply that TA is "descriptive" to markets analogously as kinematics is to physics. You really should have said that to begin with. However, it's still a bad analogy since kinematics is used to make predictions in astrophysics. TA on the other hand is only used to make historical observations and has no demonstrable predictive value.

My refutation is that you made a bad analogy and followed it up with another bad analogy. If however, you compared TA to say "Transactional Analysis" or some other school of psychology, you might have a better analogy. I'm not implying that it would be of lesser value, just less empirical.

I highlighted the parts of your text that are, IMO, are partly(brown) or completely(red) false. However, I wouldn't like to keep polluting this thread. If you really wish to discuss it further, it would be better to open a separate thread for it, although I cannot promise participation, because we, it seems, cannot agree on anything at all. Sad

Thank you, no hard feelings.

EDIT: As an illustration of one of brown points: Astrophysics Astrophysics (from Greek astron, ἄστρoν "star", and physis, φύσις "nature") is the branch of astronomy that deals with the physics of the universe, especially with "the nature of the heavenly bodies, rather than their positions or motions in space

lol

Wary

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Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 07:29:21 PM

Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 05:14:58 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 02:56:35 PM

I am saying that kinematics can be used to predict the future with certainty, but TA cannot. TA therefore is pseudoscience.

Then you should use kinematics to predict future BTC prices. With certainty. Grin

But seriously, you've made 4 posts, but I still cannot understand which my statement, exactly, you are trying to refute?

I didn't say you made a statement in my first post. My interpretation was that you were implying that TA is analogous to math and physics when clearly it is analogous to astrology. You then went on to state that you only meant to imply that TA is "descriptive" to markets analogously as kinematics is to physics. You really should have said that to begin with. However, it's still a bad analogy since kinematics is used to make predictions in astrophysics. TA on the other hand is only used to make historical observations and has no demonstrable predictive value.

My refutation is that you made a bad analogy and followed it up with another bad analogy. If however, you compared TA to say "Transactional Analysis" or some other school of psychology, you might have a better analogy. I'm not implying that it would be of lesser value, just less empirical.

I highlighted the parts of your text that are, IMO, are partly(brown) or completely(red) false. However, I wouldn't like to keep polluting this thread. If you really wish to discuss it further, it would be better to open a separate thread for it, although I cannot promise participation, because we, it seems, cannot agree on anything at all. Sad

Thank you, no hard feelings.

EDIT: As an illustration of one of brown points: Astrophysics Astrophysics (from Greek astron, ἄστρoν "star", and physis, φύσις "nature") is the branch of astronomy that deals with the physics of the universe, especially with "the nature of the heavenly bodies, rather than their positions or motions in space

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 05:14:58 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 02:56:35 PM

I am saying that kinematics can be used to predict the future with certainty, but TA cannot. TA therefore is pseudoscience.

Then you should use kinematics to predict future BTC prices. With certainty. Grin

But seriously, you've made 4 posts, but I still cannot understand which my statement, exactly, you are trying to refute?

I didn't say you made a statement in my first post. My interpretation was that you were implying that TA is analogous to math and physics when clearly it is analogous to astrology. You then went on to state that you only meant to imply that TA is "descriptive" to markets analogously as kinematics is to physics. You really should have said that to begin with. However, it's still a bad analogy since kinematics is used to make predictions in astrophysics. TA on the other hand is only used to make historical observations and has no demonstrable predictive value.

My refutation is that you made a bad analogy and followed it up with another bad analogy. If however, you compared TA to say "Transactional Analysis" or some other school of psychology, you might have a better analogy. I'm not implying that it would be of lesser value, just less empirical.

Wary

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Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Who's there?

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 23, 2014, 05:40:09 PM

So who is going to buy btc on the way up when everybody seem long already

If the auction bidders, after losing the auction, will stick to their decision to buy BTC... Super-optimistic scenario: If competition at the auction is 10:1, it would mean 180M$ of fresh money. If almost nobody sells after the auction, like in rally stage, 1$ of fresh money pushes BTC capitalisation to 20$. Which increases the price on 180M$*20*(600/13000000000)=$166, i.e. to $770. Then media attention, hype, ATH, 5K$.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 23, 2014, 05:40:09 PM

I was thinking of even smaller triangle, restricted from the top at $600-$613 and at the bottom by a rising support that stopped the falls at $540 and later $550. I use to be pretty sure we will break up out of it, but now I am more and more concerned that almost everybody turned bullish - even DanV is near term bullish Wink

. So who is going to buy btc on the way up when everybody seem long already, even leveraged long (I am referring to record high Bitfinex USD swaps and raising rates). Looks like even couple weeks or 2 months of flat price action can force some of these leveraged longs to liquidate ... It is more meta-TA than TA, but still concerning.

Any of these leveraged longs that got into Bitcoin anywhere above $540-ish last month, and who are still holding their positions, will be already underwater due to the compound interest rates of around 0.2% per day, or worse. I would tend to believe that maxed out state of the USD swaps is more like some whale (or the exchange itself) buying out the USD swap rate supply in order to decrease the supply and raise the USD swap rate price, into which he can then lend?

I dunno. But I find it hard to believe that all of those maxxed out USD swaps are sitting in leveraged long trades with 0.2% per day interest, whilst this market grinds along for the past two weeks going knowhere fast, yet pointing increasingly down. Or if I am wrong and there is a heap of leveraged longs feeling the creeping strain of those extortionate interest rates, then perhaps there will be some serious downside fireworks to come.

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 05:10:42 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 23, 2014, 04:57:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 04:48:36 PM

Daily RSI, Williams %R and MFI closed below 50, and don't seem to move for now. I can see us break out downwards, but I'd expect we find support at $533/$534 (3d BB, 23% fib $1160 to $340)

As someone who is long Bitcoin, would it not concern you a bit that a break downwards, would mean breaking that trendline which dates back to Jan 2013, the very beginnings of the massive bull run that peaked in November 2013. When looking at charts through the lens of EW analysis, the breach of such a trendline would generally be seen as confirmation that the market was in a correction phase.

Said it before, but that particular trendline isn't really on my radar, if for no other reason that I never considered it sustainable in the first place. If we break out downwards, and we don't find support at 560, and we don't find support at ~530, then I'll have to reconsider my bullish outlook. Until then, I consider 'stretched out upwards consolidation' still more likely than 'mother of all bull traps'.

Yeah, I would also be very surprised if it turned out to be a bull trap - and agree that long term exponentially growing support has to be breached soon, we do not seem to be ready for such quickly raising prices. Perhaps than sentiment will turn more bearish, so I will be more comfortable buying

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 04:48:36 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 23, 2014, 03:30:44 PM

What about going back to more prosaic discussion of the current price movement? Where do you think is support and resistance? What chance the triangle will resolve up or down?

Not sure what you have in mind.

This one?

Daily RSI, Williams %R and MFI closed below 50, and don't seem to move for now. I can see us break out downwards, but I'd expect we find support at $533/$534 (3d BB, 23% fib $1160 to $340)

I was thinking of even smaller triangle, restricted from the top at $600-$613 and at the bottom by a rising support that stopped the falls at $540 and later $550. I use to be pretty sure we will break up out of it, but now I am more and more concerned that almost everybody turned bullish - even DanV is near term bullish Wink

. So who is going to buy btc on the way up when everybody seem long already, even leveraged long (I am referring to record high Bitfinex USD swaps and raising rates). Looks like even couple weeks or 2 months of flat price action can force some of these leveraged longs to liquidate ... It is more meta-TA than TA, but still concerning.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 05:10:42 PM

Said it before, but that particular trendline isn't really on my radar, if for no other reason that I never considered it sustainable in the first place. If we break out downwards, and we don't find support at 560, and we don't find support at ~530, then I'll have to reconsider my bullish outlook. Until then, I consider 'stretched out upwards consolidation' still more likely than 'mother of all bull traps'.

I suspect that you are right. I think the trendline will be breached, but it won't prove nearly as significant as many traders believe it will be. Try as I might, I just can't seem to rekindle the same bearish spirit that I had during the first part of 2014. Although, I would suggest that a correction right down to around $520 wouldn't be out of the question. $520 is the 61.8% Fib retracement from $420. The sort of retracement level where large money becomes very interesting in taking positions.

Wary

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Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 02:56:35 PM

I am saying that kinematics can be used to predict the future with certainty, but TA cannot. TA therefore is pseudoscience.

Then you should use kinematics to predict future BTC prices. With certainty. Grin

But seriously, you've made 4 posts, but I still cannot understand which my statement, exactly, you are trying to refute?

oda.krell

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Quote from: MatTheCat on June 23, 2014, 04:57:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 04:48:36 PM

Daily RSI, Williams %R and MFI closed below 50, and don't seem to move for now. I can see us break out downwards, but I'd expect we find support at $533/$534 (3d BB, 23% fib $1160 to $340)

As someone who is long Bitcoin, would it not concern you a bit that a break downwards, would mean breaking that trendline which dates back to Jan 2013, the very beginnings of the massive bull run that peaked in November 2013. When looking at charts through the lens of EW analysis, the breach of such a trendline would generally be seen as confirmation that the market was in a correction phase.

Said it before, but that particular trendline isn't really on my radar, if for no other reason that I never considered it sustainable in the first place. If we break out downwards, and we don't find support at 560, and we don't find support at ~530, then I'll have to reconsider my bullish outlook. Until then, I consider 'stretched out upwards consolidation' still more likely than 'mother of all bull traps'.

windjc

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Quote from: MatTheCat on June 23, 2014, 04:57:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 04:48:36 PM

Daily RSI, Williams %R and MFI closed below 50, and don't seem to move for now. I can see us break out downwards, but I'd expect we find support at $533/$534 (3d BB, 23% fib $1160 to $340)

As someone who is long Bitcoin, would it not concern you a bit that a break downwards, would mean breaking that trendline which dates back to Jan 2013, the very beginnings of the massive bull run that peaked in November 2013. When looking at charts through the lens of EW analysis, the breach of such a trendline would generally be seen as confirmation that the market was in a correction phase.

No.

Why is breaking a long term trendline like that important? Trendlines are only important when they effect the mood of traders. If people are not going to sell their coins, as we saw in the low 400s, then trendlines will come and go until we go up again.

Since 2009 we are up and up. You really think this is as high as it goes?

Its not going lower than what people are willing to sell for.

But it IS going up because there are still 6 billion+ people that don't know what it is.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 04:48:36 PM

Daily RSI, Williams %R and MFI closed below 50, and don't seem to move for now. I can see us break out downwards, but I'd expect we find support at $533/$534 (3d BB, 23% fib $1160 to $340)

As someone who is long Bitcoin, would it not concern you a bit that a break downwards, would mean breaking that trendline which dates back to Jan 2013, the very beginnings of the massive bull run that peaked in November 2013. When looking at charts through the lens of EW analysis, the breach of such a trendline would generally be seen as confirmation that the market was in a correction phase.

oda.krell

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on June 23, 2014, 03:30:44 PM

What about going back to more prosaic discussion of the current price movement? Where do you think is support and resistance? What chance the triangle will resolve up or down?

Not sure what you have in mind.

This one?

Daily RSI, Williams %R and MFI closed below 50, and don't seem to move for now. I can see us break out downwards, but I'd expect we find support at $533/$534 (3d BB, 23% fib $1160 to $340)

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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What about going back to more prosaic discussion of the current price movement? Where do you think is support and resistance? What chance the triangle will resolve up or down?

MaxwellsDemon

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Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 09:18:17 AM

And yes, in order to call it any science at all, you must be able to make some sorts of predictions. Otherwise, you have just another pseudoscience like astrology.

You might want to leave Popper back in the 50's, where he belongs

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 02:09:57 PM

Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 09:18:17 AM

Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 01:22:14 AM

Quote from: cbeast on June 22, 2014, 10:14:42 PM

Quote from: Wary on June 22, 2014, 09:16:58 PM

To Tzupy, MaxwellsDemon, zimmah -thanks for the appreciation. I wish I was good it TA, but I've just started learning it.
To cbeast - special thanks. The sign of real popularity is people parodying you Grin

You made an analogy that TA is like math and physics. Math and physics make 100% accurate predictions. You imply that TA makes 100% accurate predictions. Please demonstrate your predictive science.

No such implications was made. The table is only about ways of processing raw data. The way we calculate MACD from price and histogram from MACD is similar to way we calculate speed from coordinates and acceleration from speed. The part of physics that deals with it is called kinematics and, being pure descriptional one, makes no predictions. To make a prediction we have to introduce idea of force. (Which would convert kinematics to dynamics. Dynamics does make predictions. To make TA a predictional science we have to introduce idea of "market forces". Which I didn't do, because it would be an analogy rather than science.

If you are describing objective data using science, then the data must be corroborated by multiple disciplines of science, else it is observational bias. And yes, in order to call it any science at all, you must be able to make some sorts of predictions. Otherwise, you have just another pseudoscience like astrology.

If you are saying that kinematics is a pseudoscience, like astrology, so be it. Who am I to argue with Hero member? Grin

I am saying that kinematics can be used to predict the future with certainty, but TA cannot. TA therefore is pseudoscience.

Wary

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Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Who's there?

Quote from: cbeast on June 23, 2014, 09:18:17 AM

Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 01:22:14 AM

Quote from: cbeast on June 22, 2014, 10:14:42 PM

Quote from: Wary on June 22, 2014, 09:16:58 PM

To Tzupy, MaxwellsDemon, zimmah -thanks for the appreciation. I wish I was good it TA, but I've just started learning it.
To cbeast - special thanks. The sign of real popularity is people parodying you Grin

You made an analogy that TA is like math and physics. Math and physics make 100% accurate predictions. You imply that TA makes 100% accurate predictions. Please demonstrate your predictive science.

No such implications was made. The table is only about ways of processing raw data. The way we calculate MACD from price and histogram from MACD is similar to way we calculate speed from coordinates and acceleration from speed. The part of physics that deals with it is called kinematics and, being pure descriptional one, makes no predictions. To make a prediction we have to introduce idea of force. (Which would convert kinematics to dynamics. Dynamics does make predictions. To make TA a predictional science we have to introduce idea of "market forces". Which I didn't do, because it would be an analogy rather than science.

If you are describing objective data using science, then the data must be corroborated by multiple disciplines of science, else it is observational bias. And yes, in order to call it any science at all, you must be able to make some sorts of predictions. Otherwise, you have just another pseudoscience like astrology.

If you are saying that kinematics is a pseudoscience, like astrology, so be it. Who am I to argue with Hero member? Grin

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: Wary on June 23, 2014, 01:22:14 AM

Quote from: cbeast on June 22, 2014, 10:14:42 PM

Quote from: Wary on June 22, 2014, 09:16:58 PM

To Tzupy, MaxwellsDemon, zimmah -thanks for the appreciation. I wish I was good it TA, but I've just started learning it.
To cbeast - special thanks. The sign of real popularity is people parodying you Grin

You made an analogy that TA is like math and physics. Math and physics make 100% accurate predictions. You imply that TA makes 100% accurate predictions. Please demonstrate your predictive science.

No such implications was made. The table is only about ways of processing raw data. The way we calculate MACD from price and histogram from MACD is similar to way we calculate speed from coordinates and acceleration from speed. The part of physics that deals with it is called kinematics and, being pure descriptional one, makes no predictions. To make a prediction we have to introduce idea of force. (Which would convert kinematics to dynamics. Dynamics does make predictions. To make TA a predictional science we have to introduce idea of "market forces". Which I didn't do, because it would be an analogy rather than science.

If you are describing objective data using science, then the data must be corroborated by multiple disciplines of science, else it is observational bias. And yes, in order to call it any science at all, you must be able to make some sorts of predictions. Otherwise, you have just another pseudoscience like astrology.

Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 5. (Read 31170 times)