Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 16. (Read 31170 times)
This rally somehow felt very fake to me, more like a pump effort. True, there is more volume now (last day or two), but it spiked when we were falling from the new lows. Right now all big three exchanges (stamp, huobi, btce) are below $500. Not that $1 or $2 will matter in terms of TA, but I think psychologically it is a bad sign. But I am not an expert and not felt like "catching a falling knife" last week, even though it would be extremely profitable
Welcome to another installment of our series "conversations with myself".
Looks like we're at a critical juncture during our little rally. We're fighting for the first retracement level (23%) again, just like in March. This time, it's at ~499.
Right now, we're resting slightly below it, but it's too early to declare it lost in my opinion. The following days will tell if the market feels comfortable trading above 500 or not.
re: volume. Others pointed this out already, but the volume during the recent rise from 340 to 548 didn't look so good (slightly falling volume as we went up), but at least we're currently, in the first few bars after the 548 top, seeing a bit more volume overall than during the anemic March period.
Looks like we're at a critical juncture during our little rally. We're fighting for the first retracement level (23%) again, just like in March. This time, it's at ~499.
Right now, we're resting slightly below it, but it's too early to declare it lost in my opinion. The following days will tell if the market feels comfortable trading above 500 or not.
re: volume. Others pointed this out already, but the volume during the recent rise from 340 to 548 didn't look so good (slightly falling volume as we went up), but at least we're currently, in the first few bars after the 548 top, seeing a bit more volume overall than during the anemic March period.
Not that I want to take a piss into your beloved bowl of cryptocereals, but considering that I was sceptical during last month's breakout-slash-reversal attempt (even though I ultimately thought it had a real chance for a while), I don't see how this one gets even close to the previous one.
In case you wonder what I mean: orange rectangle is the time frame of reaching and leaving the bottom, red one the aftermath. Currently, it looks like we fail to get anywhere near the March breakout in terms of momentum, and CMF isn't picking up either, hovering in the barely positive region.
The best thing I can say is that some of my favorite short-to-mid term indicators are about to turn bullish unless there's a sharp downturn (daily MACD, Fisher), so for the coming week(s) that spells some upwards potential, but the short term view makes me think this reversal is dead before it even got started.
Opinions?
UPDATE just 3 days later, and the situation looks a lot more pleasing. 6h CMF pulled up with a bit of a delay, to somewhere between 0.4 and 0.5, the highest spike since December, and well above the CMF peak of the March false breakout. A/D also shows a bullish divergence (not pictured below).
The real test for a sustained reversal will be whether we can hold this level, and do so with a bit of volume, but in any case, it looks like this rally might have legs after all.
In case you wonder what I mean: orange rectangle is the time frame of reaching and leaving the bottom, red one the aftermath. Currently, it looks like we fail to get anywhere near the March breakout in terms of momentum, and CMF isn't picking up either, hovering in the barely positive region.
The best thing I can say is that some of my favorite short-to-mid term indicators are about to turn bullish unless there's a sharp downturn (daily MACD, Fisher), so for the coming week(s) that spells some upwards potential, but the short term view makes me think this reversal is dead before it even got started.
Opinions?
UPDATE just 3 days later, and the situation looks a lot more pleasing. 6h CMF pulled up with a bit of a delay, to somewhere between 0.4 and 0.5, the highest spike since December, and well above the CMF peak of the March false breakout. A/D also shows a bullish divergence (not pictured below).
The real test for a sustained reversal will be whether we can hold this level, and do so with a bit of volume, but in any case, it looks like this rally might have legs after all.
Well, if there was any doubt how bearish one should be right now, today gave the answer.
I've been looking for possible low price targets for the past week or so, but I don't really see myself buying in right now at any of them. Almost scary how, with a 4-5 month delay, I start getting the feeling lucif had at the beginning of this downtrend.
Haha yeah, I know how you feel. Looks like the ol' clown prophet was right all along I've been looking for possible low price targets for the past week or so, but I don't really see myself buying in right now at any of them. Almost scary how, with a 4-5 month delay, I start getting the feeling lucif had at the beginning of this downtrend.
I've been experimenting with arbitrarily shoehorning in the fibonacci retracement tool to predict points of resistance or reversal, based on the observed tendency for price to "subconsciously" adhere to/ping at various fib levels before the 0 level has even been reached, implying that tops and bottoms may be predetermined by some mystical magic market forces, either from the very start of a crash/rally or as a result of price movements while getting to the end point. I call it the "Fibhorn".
You may call this method extremely shoddy, inconclusive and/or laughable, but so far it's given me pretty accurate results, although it's hard to distinguish which prediction will be resistance and which will indicate floor, so I'll obviously have to refine it further for it to be more useful.
Anyway, applying the fibhorn to the current price, 250-266 has come up as a solid result, which is in line with your previous post. Again, I'm not entirely sure if this is going to be the floor or just a point of resistance, but I highly expect it to be either one at any rate.
Oh absolutely, that method makes a lot of sense. But I guess it also has lot to do with how often you're willing to trade, and how much you value your night's sleep. What i mean is, there are two ways to go about it:
You can define "weakly" the points of possible resistance, and trade them, but then you can't be shy and must be prepared to sell again if it turns out they won't hold. I.e. you determine the bottom as you trade along. Probably the most profitable way.
Thing is, I'm kind of exhausted of this. I don't want to set price alarms at night, or to interrupt whatever I'm doing to watch the price, and since I can't predict the bottom in a "hard" way, I'll wait it out til the dust settled. Might mean I will miss the absolute bottom by some, and miss out on profit for the in between swings, but as long as I see the larger downtrend still in full swing, I think I'll simply wait... although I admit that once we get near the old ATH, I'll seriously consider buying.
Well, if there was any doubt how bearish one should be right now, today gave the answer.
I've been looking for possible low price targets for the past week or so, but I don't really see myself buying in right now at any of them. Almost scary how, with a 4-5 month delay, I start getting the feeling lucif had at the beginning of this downtrend.
Haha yeah, I know how you feel. Looks like the ol' clown prophet was right all along I've been looking for possible low price targets for the past week or so, but I don't really see myself buying in right now at any of them. Almost scary how, with a 4-5 month delay, I start getting the feeling lucif had at the beginning of this downtrend.
I've been experimenting with arbitrarily shoehorning in the fibonacci retracement tool to predict points of resistance or reversal, based on the observed tendency for price to "subconsciously" adhere to/ping at various fib levels before the 0 level has even been reached, implying that tops and bottoms may be predetermined by some mystical magic market forces, either from the very start of a crash/rally or as a result of price movements while getting to the end point. I call it the "Fibhorn".
You may call this method extremely shoddy, inconclusive and/or laughable, but so far it's given me pretty accurate results, although it's hard to distinguish which prediction will be resistance and which will indicate floor, so I'll obviously have to refine it further for it to be more useful.
Anyway, applying the fibhorn to the current price, 250-266 has come up as a solid result, which is in line with your previous post. Again, I'm not entirely sure if this is going to be the floor or just a point of resistance, but I highly expect it to be either one at any rate.
Thank you for excellent analysis work.
Looks like the bear triangle (as well as inverted cup and handle?) has finally been validated. Something, something, something.. complete? 
Well, if there was any doubt how bearish one should be right now, today gave the answer.
I've been looking for possible low price targets for the past week or so, but I don't really see myself buying in right now at any of them. Almost scary how, with a 4-5 month delay, I start getting the feeling lucif had at the beginning of this downtrend.
Looks like the bear triangle (as well as inverted cup and handle?) has finally been validated. Something, something, something.. complete?
Money flow: 2013 vs 2014
To some (most?), the following will be stating the obvious: we are very clearly not going through a trend reversal period that could mark the end of the bear market we've seen since December 2013. Others already pointed out the large bearish triangle we're still in, but here's confirmation of the claim above by eyeballing price rate of change and money flow. It seems pretty obvious that the period we're in right now (blue ellipse in the second graph) looks nothing like the reversal period of 2013 (green ellipse), while it shares some similarities with the last leg of the 2013 bear market (red circle).
There's of course an optimistic twist to it, if you wish to see it like that: We're not quite there yet perhaps, but the current "leaking of money" the market is seeing (the deeply negative CMF) is similar to the end of the 2013 bear period, so it's possible we're going through the last leg of the downtrend right now.
To paraphrase: We can pretty conclusively say now that all signs of a trend reversal, that we maybe saw in early March 2014, are thoroughly disproven right now. Of course, if your personal risk profile allows it, and you want to make absolutely sure to not miss the bottom, you might be tempted to buy in now, but if your strategy is to wait for confirmation that the trend turned around, then now is most certainly not the time.
Volume/price ratio: 2013 vs. 2014
Here's the same calculation I did a few posts above, relating $volume and price. The idea is to compare volume and price during the 2013 reversal month compared to volume/price during the most recent 30 days.
07.07.-07.08. (32 days)
$Volume Mtgox: 80M USD
$Volume Bitstamp: 31M USD
$Volume Btce: 12M USD
$Volume Sum: 123M USD
Price range, daily median: 70-98 USD
28.02.-31.03. (32 days)
$Volume Bitstamp: 298M USD
$Volume Btce: 142M USD
$Volume Sum: 440M USD
Price range,30d EMAdaily median: 460-670 USD
$Volume Ratio now:previous = 3.6:1
Price Ratio now:previous = 6.6:1-6.8:1
Volume ratio applied 1:1 to previous price = 252-353 USD (in contrast: current 30d EMA = 580 USD, current intraday median = 462 USD)
Conclusions: $volume on the big Western exchanges is about 3.6 times higher than it was in July 2013 (the "reversal month"), the value didn't change much since I last calculated it. Price is dropping however (duh), and is now only 6.6 to 6.8 times higher than back then.
Applying the volume ratio 1:1 to the 2013 period price, we get a target price for our current period between 252 and 353 USD.
Keep in mind what I already wrote the previous time when I made this calculation: I'm skeptical that the relation between $volume and (stable) price is as simple as 1:1, so the target value is a very crude approximation of what could be a price supported by current volume.
In addition, I completely ignore Chinese volume. I continue to believe that there's good reason to do so: zero fee exchange volume cannot be directly compared to volume on the Western exchanges with non-zero fees, and more importantly I believe Western market participants don't fully "trust" the signals from China anymore, given that there is real doubt whether China will continue to be able to trade BTC as they did so far in the future.
Here's another way to think of my decision to leave out Chinese volume: It's the price that I expect to be supported by $volume if China would drop out entirely.
Practically, I'd say there's a good chance the trend will reverse before going that low, but I do think that at those target prices I would no longer hesitate to buy in, since they should in principle be supported by current volume while maintaining a stable upwards trend (like they were in 2013).
To some (most?), the following will be stating the obvious: we are very clearly not going through a trend reversal period that could mark the end of the bear market we've seen since December 2013. Others already pointed out the large bearish triangle we're still in, but here's confirmation of the claim above by eyeballing price rate of change and money flow. It seems pretty obvious that the period we're in right now (blue ellipse in the second graph) looks nothing like the reversal period of 2013 (green ellipse), while it shares some similarities with the last leg of the 2013 bear market (red circle).
There's of course an optimistic twist to it, if you wish to see it like that: We're not quite there yet perhaps, but the current "leaking of money" the market is seeing (the deeply negative CMF) is similar to the end of the 2013 bear period, so it's possible we're going through the last leg of the downtrend right now.
To paraphrase: We can pretty conclusively say now that all signs of a trend reversal, that we maybe saw in early March 2014, are thoroughly disproven right now. Of course, if your personal risk profile allows it, and you want to make absolutely sure to not miss the bottom, you might be tempted to buy in now, but if your strategy is to wait for confirmation that the trend turned around, then now is most certainly not the time.
Volume/price ratio: 2013 vs. 2014
Here's the same calculation I did a few posts above, relating $volume and price. The idea is to compare volume and price during the 2013 reversal month compared to volume/price during the most recent 30 days.
07.07.-07.08. (32 days)
$Volume Mtgox: 80M USD
$Volume Bitstamp: 31M USD
$Volume Btce: 12M USD
$Volume Sum: 123M USD
Price range, daily median: 70-98 USD
28.02.-31.03. (32 days)
$Volume Bitstamp: 298M USD
$Volume Btce: 142M USD
$Volume Sum: 440M USD
Price range,
$Volume Ratio now:previous = 3.6:1
Price Ratio now:previous = 6.6:1-6.8:1
Volume ratio applied 1:1 to previous price = 252-353 USD (in contrast: current 30d EMA = 580 USD, current intraday median = 462 USD)
Conclusions: $volume on the big Western exchanges is about 3.6 times higher than it was in July 2013 (the "reversal month"), the value didn't change much since I last calculated it. Price is dropping however (duh), and is now only 6.6 to 6.8 times higher than back then.
Applying the volume ratio 1:1 to the 2013 period price, we get a target price for our current period between 252 and 353 USD.
Keep in mind what I already wrote the previous time when I made this calculation: I'm skeptical that the relation between $volume and (stable) price is as simple as 1:1, so the target value is a very crude approximation of what could be a price supported by current volume.
In addition, I completely ignore Chinese volume. I continue to believe that there's good reason to do so: zero fee exchange volume cannot be directly compared to volume on the Western exchanges with non-zero fees, and more importantly I believe Western market participants don't fully "trust" the signals from China anymore, given that there is real doubt whether China will continue to be able to trade BTC as they did so far in the future.
Here's another way to think of my decision to leave out Chinese volume: It's the price that I expect to be supported by $volume if China would drop out entirely.
Practically, I'd say there's a good chance the trend will reverse before going that low, but I do think that at those target prices I would no longer hesitate to buy in, since they should in principle be supported by current volume while maintaining a stable upwards trend (like they were in 2013).
We will most likely hover between 500-700 during March.
A note on volume
Seems to be a common complaint right now: "volume is just too low", "back in 2013 the reversal had much better volume". I'm not so sure about that. Let's see...
Excluding the day of the bottom itself (I'm leaving it out because I am interested in the "post bottom" volume), we have 20 days to look at. So I'm looking at 26.02.-17.03 for the current period. Same (post bottom) period in 2013 is 06.07.-25.07. Here's a visual of the time period I'm talking about:
Now, volume data (via btccharts). I'm summing over Mtgox, Bitstamp and btc-e in 2013, and Bitstamp and btc-e in 2014. Note that I'm ignoring Chinese exchanges entirely, which contribute a lot more volume today than back then, which works against my own case. (but tbh, I simply don't trust their volume can be taken at face value).
06.07.-25.07.2013
Mtgox: 57.3M USD
Stamp: 21.3M USD
btce: 8.4M
= 87M USD
26.02.-17.03.2014
203.5M USD
114.2M USD
= 318M USD
That's volume in USD, alright. Has to be, as that's the only meaningful way to compare volume across eras with vastly difference prices.
Volume in dollar:
318M:87M = 3.7:1
So, $volume is 3.7 times higher now than it was in the same "reversal" period in 2013.
Now, to mention this as well, price now is ~640 USD, back then it was ~90:
640:90 = 7.1:1
Summary: we trade at a price around 7 times higher per coin right now than back then, and are seeing about 3.7 times as much volume in USD compared to 2013. Keep in mind that expecting the relation between volume and price to be1:1 a constant is most likely wrong, so based on volume alone I don't see a reason to question the trend reversal.
Seems to be a common complaint right now: "volume is just too low", "back in 2013 the reversal had much better volume". I'm not so sure about that. Let's see...
Excluding the day of the bottom itself (I'm leaving it out because I am interested in the "post bottom" volume), we have 20 days to look at. So I'm looking at 26.02.-17.03 for the current period. Same (post bottom) period in 2013 is 06.07.-25.07. Here's a visual of the time period I'm talking about:
Now, volume data (via btccharts). I'm summing over Mtgox, Bitstamp and btc-e in 2013, and Bitstamp and btc-e in 2014. Note that I'm ignoring Chinese exchanges entirely, which contribute a lot more volume today than back then, which works against my own case. (but tbh, I simply don't trust their volume can be taken at face value).
06.07.-25.07.2013
Mtgox: 57.3M USD
Stamp: 21.3M USD
btce: 8.4M
= 87M USD
26.02.-17.03.2014
203.5M USD
114.2M USD
= 318M USD
That's volume in USD, alright. Has to be, as that's the only meaningful way to compare volume across eras with vastly difference prices.
Volume in dollar:
318M:87M = 3.7:1
So, $volume is 3.7 times higher now than it was in the same "reversal" period in 2013.
Now, to mention this as well, price now is ~640 USD, back then it was ~90:
640:90 = 7.1:1
Summary: we trade at a price around 7 times higher per coin right now than back then, and are seeing about 3.7 times as much volume in USD compared to 2013. Keep in mind that expecting the relation between volume and price to be
Because there's nothing he could say in English to convince me that we're just suddenly going to break out right now and have a single rally all the way to ATH and beyond in less than a month. "godmode trader" has spoken.
But godmode trader said that we might break out above $760, in which case prices upwards of $1100 etc were possible.......but if we broke below $490, then we could go down as far as $200s.
This isn't god mode trading. This is drawing lines on a fucking graph and saying the points where major trendlines hit.
But he is sure an expert on TA.
TERA wrote on March 6.:
Quote
that we're just suddenly going to break out right now and have a single rally all the way to ATH and beyond in less than a month.
Well ,I mark the date and will see the ATH as predicted in a fortnight.Up to now it doesn`t seem to become true though.
But when experts are saying this..I will Close my mouth. But this does`nt prevent me from ROTFLOL
You love changing thread title, don't you?
Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline
My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign
Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline
My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign
Damn you for calling out my clever ruse to trick people into thinking something new (and of value) has been posted. *shakes fist*
Haha, you do trick me for a second, then I check who is OP and figure it out
You love changing thread title, don't you?
Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline
My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign
Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline
My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign
Damn you for calling out my clever ruse to trick people into thinking something new (and of value) has been posted. *shakes fist*
You love changing thread title, don't you?
Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline
My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign
Anyway, I'm due for some bubble really, I need some adrenaline
My little daughter asked me some questions about our new house today, her plans for ner new rooms etc., I hope that is a sign
What if I told you...
(Morpheus meme)
... we already broke the December downtrend, but nobody noticed it.
Yes, that's median price, not candles. Deal with it. Also, don't read too much into it, I know I don't. Just the byproduct of my fumbling attempts to see the similarities and differences between this bubble cycle and the ones before. For example, I noticed that the idea that at the end of the initial post peak downtrend we must immediately see signs for a clear uptrend became somewhat fixated in my mind. Perhaps a mistake.
(Morpheus meme)
... we already broke the December downtrend, but nobody noticed it.
Yes, that's median price, not candles. Deal with it. Also, don't read too much into it, I know I don't. Just the byproduct of my fumbling attempts to see the similarities and differences between this bubble cycle and the ones before. For example, I noticed that the idea that at the end of the initial post peak downtrend we must immediately see signs for a clear uptrend became somewhat fixated in my mind. Perhaps a mistake.
EDIT: I just re-read my post. you're right, since I didn't mention it is the December downtrend, it was misleading. My mistake.
no worries. i realized shortly after that post that on the 1-week scale this figure does indeed look like its own triangle consolidation pattern, and mentioned the model in an update in the newsletter thread, as it does agree with the other data
--arepo
The plot thickens. Triangle closing, or maybe broken already to the downside. I don't think we're going to break through the December downtrend this weekend, but if whatever dip we might see over the weekend doesn't take us below ~600 I can see a continuation like shown below for the next week to 10 days, where we finally break through the LT downtrend and have a retest of 700. CMF, order book, even bitfinex stats all look pretty good, there's just not enough momentum, and we're a bit too overbought, to go through it *right* now.
by my figure, this isn't a proper triangle consolidation pattern because the drawn resistance doesn't have enough points of contact. this looks much more like a micro-bubble started by the large movement up to $710. i expect a relatively sharp movement down to mirror the movement up, retracing at least 61.8% of the way back down to the $530 support, which confirms your target at the $600 support.
we shall see...
--arepo
That's the December downtrend I (and many others) have been going on about forever... I didn't zoom out far enough to show the (3 to 4) points of contact because I assumed by now everyone agrees that it is a valid trend (even though it might be undecided how much staying power it has).
EDIT: I just re-read my post. you're right, since I didn't mention it is the December downtrend, it was misleading. My mistake.
The plot thickens. Triangle closing, or maybe broken already to the downside. I don't think we're going to break through the December downtrend this weekend, but if whatever dip we might see over the weekend doesn't take us below ~600 I can see a continuation like shown below for the next week to 10 days, where we finally break through the LT downtrend and have a retest of 700. CMF, order book, even bitfinex stats all look pretty good, there's just not enough momentum, and we're a bit too overbought, to go through it *right* now.
by my figure, this isn't a proper triangle consolidation pattern because the drawn resistance doesn't have enough points of contact. this looks much more like a micro-bubble started by the large movement up to $710. i expect a relatively sharp movement down to mirror the movement up, retracing at least 61.8% of the way back down to the $530 support, which confirms your target at the $600 support.
we shall see...
--arepo
The plot thickens. Triangle closing, or maybe broken already to the downside. I don't think we're going to break through the December downtrend this weekend, but if whatever dip we might see over the weekend doesn't take us below ~600 I can see a continuation like shown below for the next week to 10 days, where we finally break through the LT downtrend and have a retest of 700. CMF, order book, even bitfinex stats all look pretty good, there's just not enough momentum, and we're a bit too overbought, to go through it *right* now.
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