⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 62.

slaman29

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One of my freebets from the last round of prediction contests needs Sociedad to win today, but I made sure that's the only Spanish game on my ticket. Even seemed to do better adding basketball and South American football. Let's see if I regret.

Quote from: darxiaomi on January 16, 2023, 05:41:35 PM

But back to Spain lets see if what i say at the beggining its true or Barca finally find his form.

And to see if Real Madrid were just suffering like the Spanish were in Qatar or it's just a phase. By the way, it struck me actually that there are almost no Spanish spirit left starting in the final for Real... only Carvajal. Sign of the times?

darxiaomi

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I think we can apply the phrase "what happen in Las Vegas remains in Las Vegas", but like "what happen in Rihad remains in Rihad".

I don remember Barca playing that good since the MSN or before, it was a masterclass in all the pitch, and a unknow Real Madrid.

But back to Spain lets see if what i say at the beggining its true or Barca finally find his form.

minime0105

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The super cup match between Barca and Real Madrid in King Fahd International Stadium was an interesting game that saw Barca total domination of the game that make them to win the match, Barca is a good side anyday anytime, the current form of real madrid make them unfit to win match their present result has been either draw or the are been defeated, benzema scoring at 93rd minutes of the match helped them to atleast see a goal in this match despite that it was not what the expected in this match.

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Shame on you slaman, haha. I did a small ML on Barca, because they always seem extra motivated against Real under Xavi so I booked quite a tidy sum at almost 23/10. Absolutely no complaints from me, and from the match reports, seems like Real were just horrible. Of course, I expect them to improve by the time they come see us at Anfield... currently they are ranked favourites in that game a month away and that suits me.

In other pool news, Saint-loup has extended his lead...

slaman29

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Quote from: Trofo on January 15, 2023, 04:06:14 PM

Quote from: casperBGD on January 15, 2023, 02:47:28 PM

Barca did their part in El Classico, now it is up to Real to score theirs

Real played with my nerves to the maximum but good old Benzama came to the rescue in last seconds of the game. Will do good for my betting bank and help me forget pool results

Pedri was clinical today and Barca looks like they finally clicked properly.

Now it is time to reinvest that money into Australian Open and see if I will be happy or sad in the morning.

You have no idea how relieved I felt. I should have slept, and I tried to, no way I was going to go out at 4am to find a match but I kept my notification on and it was weird... to see us go 3-0 up and then the score stayed that way until dear old Benzema helped us both.

As I mentioned above, I totally ignored ML and of course this was the one time it would have won me big. But BTTS was not bad too. All in all a good weekend because I made back everything I lost on just 2 games.

LTU_btc

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Yeah, that Benzema goal saved my BTTS bet too. That moment when I don't mind Real scoring against us. Maybe Supercopa isn't most prestigous trophy, but it was very needed for Barca. We haven't won any trophy for a while and also struggled against Real in games that matters. Gavi delivered another brilliant performance and my brains just don't accept fact that this kid is still just 18 years old.
And f*ck you, Atletico!

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Quote from: casperBGD on January 15, 2023, 02:47:28 PM

Barca did their part in El Classico, now it is up to Real to score theirs

Real played with my nerves to the maximum but good old Benzama came to the rescue in last seconds of the game. Will do good for my betting bank and help me forget pool results

Pedri was clinical today and Barca looks like they finally clicked properly.

Now it is time to reinvest that money into Australian Open and see if I will be happy or sad in the morning.

casperBGD

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Quote from: Trofo on January 15, 2023, 01:01:57 PM

~snip
But what are you complaining, you at least have 1 point this game week in La Liga. I am on 0 and it all looked so logical when I was picking the results.

But I will live trough it if Barca and Real do me good and manage to score some goals. Waiting on both to score for a nice x6 multi ticket.

Sociedad did that for me, but probably worst week ever in La Liga pool, and looking at picks, would probably do the same in another try
Atletico is a real shit-show, and didn't expect from Espanyol to take all points from Getafe, but that is life, though weekend in pools

Barca did their part in El Classico, now it is up to Real to score theirs

Trofo

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Quote from: casperBGD on January 15, 2023, 07:40:21 AM

this was my, by far, worst week in pools generally
having missed all results till Brentford in the evening in EPL, and sitting at 0 points in this round in all pools was something different

Same here, worst week ever across all the pools and 0 points until Brentford

But what are you complaining, you at least have 1 point this game week in La Liga. I am on 0 and it all looked so logical when I was picking the results.

But I will live trough it if Barca and Real do me good and manage to score some goals. Waiting on both to score for a nice x6 multi ticket.

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 14, 2023, 08:15:41 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

Because of reasons Trofo outlined above, that out of the 12/16 La Liga games they won and 4/6 Champions League games, the odds are probably below 1.5 or around there. But the games they lost the opponent odds are usually quite high, right?

I personally bet on Barca on low odds (below 1.5x) on games I am certain, usually to just boost other odds on multibets.

If we talk about money bets, then yes (I already clarified this above).
By the way, how do you like the odds for today's Clasico? Real Madrid is listed as 3+ and Barcelona as 2+ meaning Barcelona are pretty serious favorites against Real Madrid. LOL what? I see no reason not to bet on Real Madrid with such quotes.

slaman29

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Quote from: Trofo on January 15, 2023, 07:15:31 AM

Barca and Real are both great teams to play both to score, due to the way they are attacking they will often concede goals and odds are always good.

For once I agree with you and am not taking Barca ML or to qualify today. In fact, I might go for a Betbuilder option plus cards on BTTS but only provided Arsenal don't win (if they do then I take safer BTTS only). It's a dumb move as I'll go way beyond my allowed loss if I end up with nothing but they say if you don't go big you don't get to win lol

Quote from: casperBGD on January 15, 2023, 07:40:21 AM

not sure about El Classico, but since it is 50:50 chances for me, and Barca is favored by bookies, my call will be Real, better value

After losing on both teams in regular time semis, I'm skipping MLs. Expecting another 1-1 or 2-2 penalty call.

casperBGD

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Quote from: LTU_btc on January 14, 2023, 05:20:09 PM

My prediction that Basque derby will be not high scoring game didn't aged well. Very solid Sociedad and that red card in 2nd half killed all chances for Athletic to make an comeback.
-snip

this was my, by far, worst week in pools generally
having missed all results till Brentford in the evening in EPL, and sitting at 0 points in this round in all pools was something different

hopefully it would be a glitch, and not trend reversal

and team results were not going my way either

not sure about El Classico, but since it is 50:50 chances for me, and Barca is favored by bookies, my call will be Real, better value

Trofo

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 14, 2023, 08:15:41 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

Because of reasons Trofo outlined above, that out of the 12/16 La Liga games they won and 4/6 Champions League games, the odds are probably below 1.5 or around there. But the games they lost the opponent odds are usually quite high, right?

I personally bet on Barca on low odds (below 1.5x) on games I am certain, usually to just boost other odds on multibets.

Low odds in football are a big avoid for me, there is just no way to make profit from them. Much weaker team will often manage to take at least a draw and ruin your streak. If I need low odds to boost the multi I am taking sports like Tennis or handball or when that is not available I will much rather take modest favorite to not loose than big favorite to win in football.

Barca and Real are both great teams to play both to score, due to the way they are attacking they will often concede goals and odds are always good.

slaman29

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Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

Because of reasons Trofo outlined above, that out of the 12/16 La Liga games they won and 4/6 Champions League games, the odds are probably below 1.5 or around there. But the games they lost the opponent odds are usually quite high, right?

I personally bet on Barca on low odds (below 1.5x) on games I am certain, usually to just boost other odds on multibets.

LTU_btc

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My prediction that Basque derby will be not high scoring game didn't aged well. Very solid Sociedad and that red card in 2nd half killed all chances for Athletic to make an comeback.

El Clasico in Supercopa final tomorrow. There is no favorite and nobody will be surprised if it will be typical not most beautiful final which will lead to extra time and penalties. Barca don't have good results against Real in recent seasons, but I hope that time fianlly come to end trophy drought, even if Supercopa isn't most prestigious trophy. It's so good that Lewandowski ban doesn't count in this tournament and he is able to play there.

Quote from: KTChampions on January 14, 2023, 04:07:29 PM

You're right, but my reasoning was about predicting by the rules of the pool. It doesn't matter whether you guessed the victory of the favorite (which is statistically easy to do) or the victory of the outsider (which is a much rarer occurrence), you get the same 1-1.5-3 points. Therefore, if we are not talking about money bets, where the odds allow you to make profitable bets on outsiders, but about the pool, then the choice of the favorite is basically obvious.

Yeah, when it comes to pools, going against favorites isn't beneficial in long term. You can get 1.5-3 points few times, but more likely that you will lose only. You can gain most in 50/50 games where people have different predictions of outcome and not 95% of pool backing favorite.

KTChampions

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Quote from: LTU_btc on January 14, 2023, 02:35:22 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

And most of their games had odds like 1.10. So, to get significant profit you have to put big stakes. And every their loss will cost you big part of your bankroll. It's more painful to lose one big bet with 1.10 odds than few smaller ones with odds something like 1.60-1.70. But some people manage to make profits with such strategy.

You're right, but my reasoning was about predicting by the rules of the pool. It doesn't matter whether you guessed the victory of the favorite (which is statistically easy to do) or the victory of the outsider (which is a much rarer occurrence), you get the same 1-1.5-3 points. Therefore, if we are not talking about money bets, where the odds allow you to make profitable bets on outsiders, but about the pool, then the choice of the favorite is basically obvious.

LTU_btc

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Sevilla showed signs of recovery last round, but today they lost to Girona and it doesn't even comes as surprise. Had BTTS on this game. Yesterday I managed to spend my free bet from yellow cap well - made bet on BTTS in Celta - Villarreal game @1.89.
Next we have Basque derby between Real Sociedad - Athletic. Looking at results of both teams and their defense, probably we can't expect many goals. So, I'm going with over 1.5 goals @1.55. Nothing special. In superbru my prediction is 1:1.
BTW, Saint-loup is running away. He already got 10 points from all 4 games played so far and now his lead is already 8.5 points

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

And most of their games had odds like 1.10. So, to get significant profit you have to put big stakes. And every their loss will cost you big part of your bankroll. It's more painful to lose one big bet with 1.10 odds than few smaller ones with odds something like 1.60-1.70. But some people manage to make profits with such strategy.

KTChampions

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 02:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

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Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Damn Barca. Lost big money as qualification odds was less than 1.2x when I checked so I decided to go for regular ML. Lewandowski could have won it for me but urgh.

And worst, I put in x2 at HT which was almost 2x but I made it part of multibet which lost with guess who? Chelsea!!

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 02:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

You can't finish in profit by betting on favorites, odds are just too low to make it worthwhile and every loss costs you so much. That is why I prefer both to score market in matches like this, good odds and passed quite often. Watched parts of the match yesterday and Betis was quite good, did not have any chance when it came to penalties though. Barca was much more composed and Ter Stegen looked close to save most of them.

slaman29

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Damn Barca. Lost big money as qualification odds was less than 1.2x when I checked so I decided to go for regular ML. Lewandowski could have won it for me but urgh.

And worst, I put in x2 at HT which was almost 2x but I made it part of multibet which lost with guess who? Chelsea!!

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 02:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

Topic: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 62. (Read 32618 times)