⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 60.

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2562

Merit: 1978

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: slaman29 on January 14, 2023, 08:15:41 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

Because of reasons Trofo outlined above, that out of the 12/16 La Liga games they won and 4/6 Champions League games, the odds are probably below 1.5 or around there. But the games they lost the opponent odds are usually quite high, right?

I personally bet on Barca on low odds (below 1.5x) on games I am certain, usually to just boost other odds on multibets.

If we talk about money bets, then yes (I already clarified this above).
By the way, how do you like the odds for today's Clasico? Real Madrid is listed as 3+ and Barcelona as 2+ meaning Barcelona are pretty serious favorites against Real Madrid. LOL what? I see no reason not to bet on Real Madrid with such quotes.

slaman29

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1226

Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.

Quote from: Trofo on January 15, 2023, 07:15:31 AM

Barca and Real are both great teams to play both to score, due to the way they are attacking they will often concede goals and odds are always good.

For once I agree with you and am not taking Barca ML or to qualify today. In fact, I might go for a Betbuilder option plus cards on BTTS but only provided Arsenal don't win (if they do then I take safer BTTS only). It's a dumb move as I'll go way beyond my allowed loss if I end up with nothing but they say if you don't go big you don't get to win lol

Quote from: casperBGD on January 15, 2023, 07:40:21 AM

not sure about El Classico, but since it is 50:50 chances for me, and Barca is favored by bookies, my call will be Real, better value

After losing on both teams in regular time semis, I'm skipping MLs. Expecting another 1-1 or 2-2 penalty call.

casperBGD

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1151

Nil Satis Nisi Optimum

Quote from: LTU_btc on January 14, 2023, 05:20:09 PM

My prediction that Basque derby will be not high scoring game didn't aged well. Very solid Sociedad and that red card in 2nd half killed all chances for Athletic to make an comeback.
-snip

this was my, by far, worst week in pools generally
having missed all results till Brentford in the evening in EPL, and sitting at 0 points in this round in all pools was something different

hopefully it would be a glitch, and not trend reversal

and team results were not going my way either

not sure about El Classico, but since it is 50:50 chances for me, and Barca is favored by bookies, my call will be Real, better value

Trofo

legendary

Activity: 2646

Merit: 2691

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: slaman29 on January 14, 2023, 08:15:41 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

Because of reasons Trofo outlined above, that out of the 12/16 La Liga games they won and 4/6 Champions League games, the odds are probably below 1.5 or around there. But the games they lost the opponent odds are usually quite high, right?

I personally bet on Barca on low odds (below 1.5x) on games I am certain, usually to just boost other odds on multibets.

Low odds in football are a big avoid for me, there is just no way to make profit from them. Much weaker team will often manage to take at least a draw and ruin your streak. If I need low odds to boost the multi I am taking sports like Tennis or handball or when that is not available I will much rather take modest favorite to not loose than big favorite to win in football.

Barca and Real are both great teams to play both to score, due to the way they are attacking they will often concede goals and odds are always good.

slaman29

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1226

Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

Because of reasons Trofo outlined above, that out of the 12/16 La Liga games they won and 4/6 Champions League games, the odds are probably below 1.5 or around there. But the games they lost the opponent odds are usually quite high, right?

I personally bet on Barca on low odds (below 1.5x) on games I am certain, usually to just boost other odds on multibets.

LTU_btc

legendary

Activity: 3262

Merit: 1376

Slava Ukraini!

My prediction that Basque derby will be not high scoring game didn't aged well. Very solid Sociedad and that red card in 2nd half killed all chances for Athletic to make an comeback.

El Clasico in Supercopa final tomorrow. There is no favorite and nobody will be surprised if it will be typical not most beautiful final which will lead to extra time and penalties. Barca don't have good results against Real in recent seasons, but I hope that time fianlly come to end trophy drought, even if Supercopa isn't most prestigious trophy. It's so good that Lewandowski ban doesn't count in this tournament and he is able to play there.

Quote from: KTChampions on January 14, 2023, 04:07:29 PM

You're right, but my reasoning was about predicting by the rules of the pool. It doesn't matter whether you guessed the victory of the favorite (which is statistically easy to do) or the victory of the outsider (which is a much rarer occurrence), you get the same 1-1.5-3 points. Therefore, if we are not talking about money bets, where the odds allow you to make profitable bets on outsiders, but about the pool, then the choice of the favorite is basically obvious.

Yeah, when it comes to pools, going against favorites isn't beneficial in long term. You can get 1.5-3 points few times, but more likely that you will lose only. You can gain most in 50/50 games where people have different predictions of outcome and not 95% of pool backing favorite.

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2562

Merit: 1978

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: LTU_btc on January 14, 2023, 02:35:22 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

And most of their games had odds like 1.10. So, to get significant profit you have to put big stakes. And every their loss will cost you big part of your bankroll. It's more painful to lose one big bet with 1.10 odds than few smaller ones with odds something like 1.60-1.70. But some people manage to make profits with such strategy.

You're right, but my reasoning was about predicting by the rules of the pool. It doesn't matter whether you guessed the victory of the favorite (which is statistically easy to do) or the victory of the outsider (which is a much rarer occurrence), you get the same 1-1.5-3 points. Therefore, if we are not talking about money bets, where the odds allow you to make profitable bets on outsiders, but about the pool, then the choice of the favorite is basically obvious.

LTU_btc

legendary

Activity: 3262

Merit: 1376

Slava Ukraini!

Sevilla showed signs of recovery last round, but today they lost to Girona and it doesn't even comes as surprise. Had BTTS on this game. Yesterday I managed to spend my free bet from yellow cap well - made bet on BTTS in Celta - Villarreal game @1.89.
Next we have Basque derby between Real Sociedad - Athletic. Looking at results of both teams and their defense, probably we can't expect many goals. So, I'm going with over 1.5 goals @1.55. Nothing special. In superbru my prediction is 1:1.
BTW, Saint-loup is running away. He already got 10 points from all 4 games played so far and now his lead is already 8.5 points

Quote from: KTChampions on January 13, 2023, 04:46:07 PM

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

And most of their games had odds like 1.10. So, to get significant profit you have to put big stakes. And every their loss will cost you big part of your bankroll. It's more painful to lose one big bet with 1.10 odds than few smaller ones with odds something like 1.60-1.70. But some people manage to make profits with such strategy.

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2562

Merit: 1978

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 02:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

Hm... Why?

Real Madrid have won 12 out of 16 games in La Liga and 4 out of 6 in the Champions League - in any case, it is beneficial to choose Real as the winner. If we are talking about betting on money, then of course, from time to time there are situations when it is more profitable to bet against Real Madrid, but in this format of the competition there are simply no options other than betting on Real Madrid.

Trofo

legendary

Activity: 2646

Merit: 2691

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: slaman29 on January 13, 2023, 06:18:47 AM

Damn Barca. Lost big money as qualification odds was less than 1.2x when I checked so I decided to go for regular ML. Lewandowski could have won it for me but urgh.

And worst, I put in x2 at HT which was almost 2x but I made it part of multibet which lost with guess who? Chelsea!!

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 02:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

You can't finish in profit by betting on favorites, odds are just too low to make it worthwhile and every loss costs you so much. That is why I prefer both to score market in matches like this, good odds and passed quite often. Watched parts of the match yesterday and Betis was quite good, did not have any chance when it came to penalties though. Barca was much more composed and Ter Stegen looked close to save most of them.

slaman29

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1226

Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.

Damn Barca. Lost big money as qualification odds was less than 1.2x when I checked so I decided to go for regular ML. Lewandowski could have won it for me but urgh.

And worst, I put in x2 at HT which was almost 2x but I made it part of multibet which lost with guess who? Chelsea!!

Quote from: KTChampions on January 12, 2023, 02:36:04 PM

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

Agree here, and maybe the opposite with Real, bet against them in normal competition and on them in big games?

LTU_btc

legendary

Activity: 3262

Merit: 1376

Slava Ukraini!

If yesterday I said that Real - Valencia was great game, I probably used wrong word. Because today's semifinal was great game, Real - Valencia was just good.
Both teams played high level football and even in last minutes and in extra time they didn't tried to save score and tried to win game without going to penalties. And in penalty shootout Ter Stegen was just great. Pedri goal was disallowed after minimal offside. Without VAR it would be impossible to notice it. Maybe sometimes such offsides looks ridiculous, but rules are rules.
So, we will have El Clasico in the final on Sunday.

Quote from: casperBGD on January 12, 2023, 02:19:08 PM

not a fan of Spanish teams playing abroad, but money is there to push it through, and there is nothing one can do about it

not sure if there is interest from other league to play their matches abroad, but La Liga teams are in financial meltdown, and they have to do anything to put their financials in better position, VCF as well, being down more than 400 million EUR atm

I'm not big fan too, but it's all about the money and probably it's difficult to deny such generous offers. IIRC, Italy and maybe France also played their Supercups abroad.
There was plans to play some La Liga games in USA, but after they got lot of hate from Spanish fans, they refused to do it.

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2562

Merit: 1978

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: slaman29 on January 12, 2023, 05:22:02 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 11, 2023, 08:50:42 AM

This is random. To evaluate the effectiveness of your efforts, you need to try different options over a long distance. For example, in this round, I predicted a draw (if I remember correctly) between Atlético and Barcelona, and it seems to me that Barcelona's victory can hardly be called natural. I also predicted draws in Serie A - between Spezia and Lecce and between Milan and Roma with the same score 1-1. As a result, the first pair played 0-0, and the second 2-2. On the one hand, I guessed right, on the other hand, luck was against me.

I feel like I did the same "strategy" last season and did slightly better, so that's the long term enough proof for me that consistency is better than just trying something different all the time. But let's see, maybe the recent results really are unnatural (Barca winning was truly a surprise).
~

In games with outsiders, I think it's more profitable to always predict Barcelona to win - even if they reduce the percentage of points scored, in any case, the percentage of wins will be higher than the percentage of losses and draws. In the big games I will bet against Barcelona - according to the statistics this season they have 4 losses, 1 draw (with Inter which equaled in result to defeat) and one sluggish win against Atlético. It is obvious that in big games it is more profitable to predict the failure of Barcelona.

casperBGD

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1151

Nil Satis Nisi Optimum

Quote from: LTU_btc on January 11, 2023, 05:19:20 PM

So, Valencia lost in semifinal to Real after penalties. It was great game and it's good that we got maximum from it. But when it comes to penalties, when you see players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos going to take it, it's so difficult to expect that they will miss, unless goalkeeper will do miracles. They have so much experience in such games that's just another day in office for them. While Valencia players didn't looked confident there. Sorry for a loss, casperBGD
2nd semifinal Barca - Betis tomorrow, it should be great game and similar scenario like today wouldn't be surprise. Though, I obviously would prefer Barca win in 90 minutes Cheesy

.

it is what it is, I was not able to watch the match, and VCF obviously played better than when I am watching, maybe it is a sign

not a fan of Spanish teams playing abroad, but money is there to push it through, and there is nothing one can do about it

not sure if there is interest from other league to play their matches abroad, but La Liga teams are in financial meltdown, and they have to do anything to put their financials in better position, VCF as well, being down more than 400 million EUR atm

slaman29

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1226

Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.

Quote from: KTChampions on January 11, 2023, 08:50:42 AM

Quote from: slaman29 on January 11, 2023, 07:45:03 AM

And maybe I should pay less attention the league then in that case because I seem to be doing worse by trying to follow the news and how teams line up and expected odds etc it would seem that bookie odds on the day itself seems a more accurate way to adjust predictions. I am trying to be very consistent, not to predict too many upsets but it's not working anyway!

This is random. To evaluate the effectiveness of your efforts, you need to try different options over a long distance. For example, in this round, I predicted a draw (if I remember correctly) between Atlético and Barcelona, and it seems to me that Barcelona's victory can hardly be called natural. I also predicted draws in Serie A - between Spezia and Lecce and between Milan and Roma with the same score 1-1. As a result, the first pair played 0-0, and the second 2-2. On the one hand, I guessed right, on the other hand, luck was against me.

I feel like I did the same "strategy" last season and did slightly better, so that's the long term enough proof for me that consistency is better than just trying something different all the time. But let's see, maybe the recent results really are unnatural (Barca winning was truly a surprise).

Quote from: Trofo on January 12, 2023, 03:47:35 AM

Quote from: Harkorede on January 11, 2023, 08:12:30 PM

It was an intense game between Valencia and Real Madrid and hopefully we'll get an equally or even more interesting game between Barcelona and Betis, for what it's worth, I literally would have preferred Valencia going through because it would have meant a less tougher opponent should Barcelona win their tie as well. I really don't if Lewandowski's ban would be carried over to the super cup, but if that's the case it might be just another fixture for Barcelona to struggle with, I'll regardless have my bet on Barcelona to win at 90 minutes.

My bet is on both to score today, Barcelona should score for sure and I expect Betis to do some problems for Barca defense as well. Really don't like that these matches are played in Saudi Arabia but money can get you anything these days. If I were a supporter from one of these clubs I would send complaining letters every year to make Spanish football associations or whatever their governing body is called aware that not everybody is happy about it.

I prefer to bet on Barca to qualify but I haven't made up my mind yet, although the odds aren't so great but I feel terrible if we end the game to penalties. So I might split my bets, one multibet with Barca inside and one bigger one on them to qualify.

Spain playing their games abroad is a tragedy. Doesn't matter where, even if in next country, it should never happen. If I'm a fan, I'd be protesting and burning down the club HQ!!

Trofo

legendary

Activity: 2646

Merit: 2691

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: Harkorede on January 11, 2023, 08:12:30 PM

Quote from: LTU_btc on January 11, 2023, 05:19:20 PM

So, Valencia lost in semifinal to Real after penalties. It was great game and it's good that we got maximum from it. But when it comes to penalties, when you see players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos going to take it, it's so difficult to expect that they will miss, unless goalkeeper will do miracles. They have so much experience in such games that's just another day in office for them. While Valencia players didn't looked confident there. Sorry for a loss, casperBGD
2nd semifinal Barca - Betis tomorrow, it should be great game and similar scenario like today wouldn't be surprise. Though, I obviously would prefer Barca win in 90 minutes Cheesy

.

It was an intense game between Valencia and Real Madrid and hopefully we'll get an equally or even more interesting game between Barcelona and Betis, for what it's worth, I literally would have preferred Valencia going through because it would have meant a less tougher opponent should Barcelona win their tie as well. I really don't if Lewandowski's ban would be carried over to the super cup, but if that's the case it might be just another fixture for Barcelona to struggle with, I'll regardless have my bet on Barcelona to win at 90 minutes.

My bet is on both to score today, Barcelona should score for sure and I expect Betis to do some problems for Barca defense as well. Really don't like that these matches are played in Saudi Arabia but money can get you anything these days. If I were a supporter from one of these clubs I would send complaining letters every year to make Spanish football associations or whatever their governing body is called aware that not everybody is happy about it.

Harkorede

copper member

Activity: 2044

Merit: 793

Quote from: LTU_btc on January 11, 2023, 05:19:20 PM

So, Valencia lost in semifinal to Real after penalties. It was great game and it's good that we got maximum from it. But when it comes to penalties, when you see players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos going to take it, it's so difficult to expect that they will miss, unless goalkeeper will do miracles. They have so much experience in such games that's just another day in office for them. While Valencia players didn't looked confident there. Sorry for a loss, casperBGD
2nd semifinal Barca - Betis tomorrow, it should be great game and similar scenario like today wouldn't be surprise. Though, I obviously would prefer Barca win in 90 minutes Cheesy

.

It was an intense game between Valencia and Real Madrid and hopefully we'll get an equally or even more interesting game between Barcelona and Betis, for what it's worth, I literally would have preferred Valencia going through because it would have meant a less tougher opponent should Barcelona win their tie as well. I really don't if Lewandowski's ban would be carried over to the super cup, but if that's the case it might be just another fixture for Barcelona to struggle with, I'll regardless have my bet on Barcelona to win at 90 minutes.

LTU_btc

legendary

Activity: 3262

Merit: 1376

Slava Ukraini!

So, Valencia lost in semifinal to Real after penalties. It was great game and it's good that we got maximum from it. But when it comes to penalties, when you see players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos going to take it, it's so difficult to expect that they will miss, unless goalkeeper will do miracles. They have so much experience in such games that's just another day in office for them. While Valencia players didn't looked confident there. Sorry for a loss, casperBGD
2nd semifinal Barca - Betis tomorrow, it should be great game and similar scenario like today wouldn't be surprise. Though, I obviously would prefer Barca win in 90 minutes Cheesy

.

KTChampions

legendary

Activity: 2562

Merit: 1978

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: slaman29 on January 11, 2023, 07:45:03 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on January 10, 2023, 03:44:57 PM

I scored 7.5 points in this round, haha, we are close (including in the final standings - I am in 2nd place). There are good days, there are bad days, that's okay. There is a long distance ahead and sooner or later there will be a good result with forecasts "at random". For example, I don't have much time for analysis right now and I make simple predictions, but the last round in the Serie A pool was unusually good for me.

And maybe I should pay less attention the league then in that case because I seem to be doing worse by trying to follow the news and how teams line up and expected odds etc it would seem that bookie odds on the day itself seems a more accurate way to adjust predictions. I am trying to be very consistent, not to predict too many upsets but it's not working anyway!

This is random. To evaluate the effectiveness of your efforts, you need to try different options over a long distance. For example, in this round, I predicted a draw (if I remember correctly) between Atlético and Barcelona, and it seems to me that Barcelona's victory can hardly be called natural. I also predicted draws in Serie A - between Spezia and Lecce and between Milan and Roma with the same score 1-1. As a result, the first pair played 0-0, and the second 2-2. On the one hand, I guessed right, on the other hand, luck was against me.

slaman29

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1226

Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.

Quote from: KTChampions on January 10, 2023, 03:44:57 PM

Quote from: Harkorede on January 10, 2023, 03:17:37 PM

I'm currently in fourth position, because I had a terrible week, I score just 6 points, If only I had done better, I might have move up a bit better, but I slowly losing my knowledge of the league, maybe it's high time I start watch their matches again because asides Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, I really don't watch any other matches from the league with occasional exception if we have fixtures like Athletic Bilbao playing teams like Sevilla or Villarreal.

I know 4th position might not be so bad, but If I don't keep up the pace, I'll surely drop only further down the pecking order.

I scored 7.5 points in this round, haha, we are close (including in the final standings - I am in 2nd place). There are good days, there are bad days, that's okay. There is a long distance ahead and sooner or later there will be a good result with forecasts "at random". For example, I don't have much time for analysis right now and I make simple predictions, but the last round in the Serie A pool was unusually good for me.

And maybe I should pay less attention the league then in that case because I seem to be doing worse by trying to follow the news and how teams line up and expected odds etc it would seem that bookie odds on the day itself seems a more accurate way to adjust predictions. I am trying to be very consistent, not to predict too many upsets but it's not working anyway!

Topic: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 60. (Read 31882 times)