Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 137.

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Quote from: cryptofrka on July 16, 2023, 07:15:55 AM

Quote from: casperBGD on July 15, 2023, 03:53:19 PM

back to EPL, there are rumors (maybe just hopium) that Vardy will join Everton, talks are months long already, but could end-up successful

What will they do with a 37-year old striker who scored 3 goals in 37 league appearances last season?

Vardy's time has passed, Everton would be crazy to even consider him at this point.

Vardy's loyalty to Leicester City is undeniable; he did not turn down every team in Europe to end up at Everton at the age of 37, when he is only one season away from retiring as a Leicester City legend (his dream)

He's staying at Leicester City because he adores the club. Everton's business strategy is the worst in the Premier League, which is why they struggle season after season.

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Quote from: casperBGD on July 15, 2023, 03:53:19 PM

back to EPL, there are rumors (maybe just hopium) that Vardy will join Everton, talks are months long already, but could end-up successful

What will they do with a 37-year old striker who scored 3 goals in 37 league appearances last season?

Vardy's time has passed, Everton would be crazy to even consider him at this point.

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Quote from: Harkorede on July 08, 2023, 05:33:33 PM

~snip

75% - 100% profit on any investment in 8 months is a very profitable business, but gambling isn't a business so why wait 8 months for odds that goes by almost every hour in different sports on a daily basis.

outrights odds are closer to business than to betting
one game can go wrong, but you can't have wrong season, if you are seen to catch the title (just look at Bayern and City last season)

two months before end, when Dortmund and Bayern were on one-two point difference, odds on Dortmund were @9 to win the league, and we all know how that finished in the end

and when you have good outright, you can hedge it throughout the season (I am not putting money on City, odds are too low, trying to catch good starters)

back to EPL, there are rumors (maybe just hopium) that Vardy will join Everton, talks are months long already, but could end-up successful

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 13, 2023, 09:28:03 AM

I don't think that anyone when odds were 3.0 believed in Arsenal in the sense of "was sure", its illogical. If I'm not mistaken the lowest odds for Arsenal were 1.6 - and even then (seemed to me) most didn't believe that Arsenal would be able to finish the job. The odds on the City at that time were in the region of 2 and those who took the risk made 100% profit (and by the way it took much less than 8 months).
There is risk everywhere, especially in betting, but I still don’t understand why the odds are so generous here - I can’t even explain it with the mood of the crowd and cash flow - everyone praises City and expects another title from them.

A 5 point lead in the league, a game in hand, and less than 10 games to play looked like the Arsenal trophy, and everyone began putting a lot of faith in them to win the title. Except for me and a few others who know arsenal to be bottlers, everyone "was sure" it was coming home at that time.

Why would I wait a calendar year for something that I do for enjoyment every day? Lol

Henderson has accepted the proposed contract from Saudi Arabia who's next for the money bag? @buwatress

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Quote from: Igebotz on July 12, 2023, 03:52:15 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on July 12, 2023, 01:25:53 PM

Yep. I meant big bets exactly, and it’s not necessarily about whales, because if a person bets $ 5,000 and this is a large amount for him, then + 75% to it will also be a big win for him.
Yes, business and bets are different things, but betting has its advantages - for example, you can fully hedge your position if you think that the profit received is already sufficient.

$5k bet for $3750 profit over 8 months for something that could go the other way is not worth it. I knew someone who went big on Arsenal @3.0 odd just when everyone believed the league was theirs and then boom City took it away from them. Outright betting on the EPL title is extremely risky.
~

I don't think that anyone when odds were 3.0 believed in Arsenal in the sense of "was sure", its illogical. If I'm not mistaken the lowest odds for Arsenal were 1.6 - and even then (seemed to me) most didn't believe that Arsenal would be able to finish the job. The odds on the City at that time were in the region of 2 and those who took the risk made 100% profit (and by the way it took much less than 8 months).
There is risk everywhere, especially in betting, but I still don’t understand why the odds are so generous here - I can’t even explain it with the mood of the crowd and cash flow - everyone praises City and expects another title from them.

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 12, 2023, 01:25:53 PM

So, anyone have any opinions on the upcoming season? I think City will be champion again with a probability of around 70-80%. I give this assessment considering that I am their hater (so this is not the result of excessive optimism for the "favorite" team) Grin

In truth, it is difficult to predict who will be the champion in the upcoming season before the start of the tournament. We first need to assess the clubs, as well as the transfers and new faces coming to the EPL.
I believe Newcastle United will have a strong presence this season. We all witnessed how they performed last season! However, I am not sure if the rumor about Ronaldo joining the club this season is true or not.

Quote from: Igebotz on July 12, 2023, 03:52:15 PM

$5k bet for $3750 profit over 8 months for something that could go the other way is not worth it. I knew someone who went big on Arsenal @3.0 odd just when everyone believed the league was theirs and then boom City took it away from them. Outright betting on the EPL title is extremely risky.

Honestly, last year I placed a bet of this magnitude and ended up losing in the semi-final match of the World Cup between Morocco and France.

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 12, 2023, 01:25:53 PM

Yep. I meant big bets exactly, and it’s not necessarily about whales, because if a person bets $ 5,000 and this is a large amount for him, then + 75% to it will also be a big win for him.
Yes, business and bets are different things, but betting has its advantages - for example, you can fully hedge your position if you think that the profit received is already sufficient.

$5k bet for $3750 profit over 8 months for something that could go the other way is not worth it. I knew someone who went big on Arsenal @3.0 odd just when everyone believed the league was theirs and then boom City took it away from them. Outright betting on the EPL title is extremely risky.

Quote from: KTChampions on July 12, 2023, 01:25:53 PM

So, anyone have any opinions on the upcoming season? I think City will be champion again with a probability of around 70-80%. I give this assessment considering that I am their hater (so this is not the result of excessive optimism for the "favorite" team) Grin

Same Manchester city others are chasers........

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Quote from: Harkorede on July 08, 2023, 05:33:33 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on July 07, 2023, 01:28:55 PM

Too low?

+75% for a team that looks like a skating rink going through all the competitors? To be honest, I expected City quotes to be around 1.35-1.45 no more. Now I have a heavy feeling that I missed some important news and was generally mistaken.

I occasionally bet on outright odds, but that would in case of not so long events like the NBA Playoffs Series, Finals, World Cup and Euro, Copa America or any other ~1 month competition, Not leagues winner which last 8 months or thereabout and I strongly agree with Igebotz here that "The Juice isn't worth the squeeze" except for those whale fanatics that are putting in hundred thousands or millions of dollars on such odds, but it's still not worth it imo opinion having to wait for as long as 8 months for a bet you could eventually lose.

75% - 100% profit on any investment in 8 months is a very profitable business, but gambling isn't a business so why wait 8 months for odds that goes by almost every hour in different sports on a daily basis.

Yep. I meant big bets exactly, and it’s not necessarily about whales, because if a person bets $ 5,000 and this is a large amount for him, then + 75% to it will also be a big win for him.
Yes, business and bets are different things, but betting has its advantages - for example, you can fully hedge your position if you think that the profit received is already sufficient.

So, anyone have any opinions on the upcoming season? I think City will be champion again with a probability of around 70-80%. I give this assessment considering that I am their hater (so this is not the result of excessive optimism for the "favorite" team) Grin

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 07, 2023, 01:28:55 PM

Quote from: Igebotz on July 07, 2023, 05:56:16 AM

~
I don't bet on outright odds; why would I wait a whole year for a 1.70 odd profit? It's not worth it and never will be. Outright odds are good for a 1-2 month tournament. BTW, 1.75 for Manchester City to win the Premier League? That is far too low for the risk.

Too low?

+75% for a team that looks like a skating rink going through all the competitors? To be honest, I expected City quotes to be around 1.35-1.45 no more. Now I have a heavy feeling that I missed some important news and was generally mistaken.

I occasionally bet on outright odds, but that would in case of not so long events like the NBA Playoffs Series, Finals, World Cup and Euro, Copa America or any other ~1 month competition, Not leagues winner which last 8 months or thereabout and I strongly agree with Igebotz here that "The Juice isn't worth the squeeze" except for those whale fanatics that are putting in hundred thousands or millions of dollars on such odds, but it's still not worth it imo opinion having to wait for as long as 8 months for a bet you could eventually lose.

75% - 100% profit on any investment in 8 months is a very profitable business, but gambling isn't a business so why wait 8 months for odds that goes by almost every hour in different sports on a daily basis.

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on July 08, 2023, 01:45:28 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on July 08, 2023, 08:40:23 AM

^ Yup, they had to sell more than 10 of them to get the number down to around 25 and have some in the bank to spend. Brings down the wage budget too. I think Chelsea had 43 players including the guys that went up from their youth academy? Crazy...

But yeah, I'm excited the most for them in the EPL with Burnley a close second.

Let's see what Poch can do for the club. And how Kompany fares at the highest level.

Chelsea are a mess, Poch has a huge job on his hands. I don’t see what will be any different this season. Tgeir scattergun approach to transfers is really weird, there doesn’t seem to be any method to what they’re doing. It just seems to be spend a tonne of money on absolute mediocrity.

Here’s hoping Liverpool are much, much better this season. Finishing 5th is not good enough, we have made a couple of signings but need another couple more to really try & push City for the title. Having a functioning midfield again will help though, not having to rely on Henderson, Jones & Elliot.

The problem is that both Liverpool and Chelsea are in the same boat; you spend €100m to €70m on a single player every summer, and none of those players have lived up to expectations so far; the only difference is that Liverpool has a better coach than Chelsea.

Last season, we were both a joke; don't let Liverpool finishing fifth distract you from that; you guys were lucky to get up there. Grin

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Quote from: tokeweed on July 08, 2023, 08:40:23 AM

^ Yup, they had to sell more than 10 of them to get the number down to around 25 and have some in the bank to spend. Brings down the wage budget too. I think Chelsea had 43 players including the guys that went up from their youth academy? Crazy...

But yeah, I'm excited the most for them in the EPL with Burnley a close second.

Let's see what Poch can do for the club. And how Kompany fares at the highest level.

Chelsea are a mess, Poch has a huge job on his hands. I don’t see what will be any different this season. Tgeir scattergun approach to transfers is really weird, there doesn’t seem to be any method to what they’re doing. It just seems to be spend a tonne of money on absolute mediocrity.

Here’s hoping Liverpool are much, much better this season. Finishing 5th is not good enough, we have made a couple of signings but need another couple more to really try & push City for the title. Having a functioning midfield again will help though, not having to rely on Henderson, Jones & Elliot.

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Quote from: Igebotz on July 08, 2023, 06:40:26 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on July 07, 2023, 01:28:55 PM

Too low?

+75% for a team that looks like a skating rink going through all the competitors? To be honest, I expected City quotes to be around 1.35-1.45 no more. Now I have a heavy feeling that I missed some important news and was generally mistaken.

Yes, I'm greedy, but I'd rather receive +75% of my stake on a basketball first half overs bet than have to wait a full calendar year for it. It's still not worth it.

Quote from: LTU_btc on July 07, 2023, 02:53:46 PM

It's not bad odds, but maybe for more short term than whole season. Actually, I don't believe that we have outright odds in EPL below 2.00

I consider myself greedy, but it seems that against the background of you colleagues, I'm not so greedy as i think Grin

I myself like bets with large odds (3-6), but if we are talking about reliable bets, then this is 1.3-1.5. In this case, 1.75 seems to be the most reliable, so when I think about this bet, I think of a significant amount, and + 75% to a serious amount seems very generous to me.

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Quote from: Trofo on July 08, 2023, 08:21:21 AM

Quote from: swogerino on July 08, 2023, 08:15:45 AM

Last year I don't think it was Boehly fault by the way,it was exactly incompetent managers who could not put the right mentality and the right harmony between such good players,a thing I am sure will be corrected during Poch kingdom at Chelsea.

Chelsea had 35 world class turbo expensive players at the end of last season. No manager in the world can make them happy and no club in the world can pay those wages in the long run.

Whoever was in charge of transfers did terrible job. And I believe that was Boelhy. I am almost sure that without single transfer they would have finished the season better. And money spent in that transfer window set them back for years.

I wouldn't blame Todd Boehly; he was simply doing his job following the takeover, and after we lost the A transfer list (De ligt, Halaand, Raphinna, and Kounde) last summer following the takeover, the supporters were all over him, and he wanted to prove he was the guy for the club. He brought together some of the greatest scouts from various teams before the January transfer craze, and don't you think we're assessing these guys too soon? Give them at least one preseason with the team. There were a lot of deadwoods, and I'm delighted we've already gotten rid of eight of them. What made you believe we would do better without those new recruits?

Quote from: Harkorede on July 08, 2023, 09:37:00 AM

I can still say Boehly is likely laying the wrong foundation for Poch to fail, Kante, Kovacic and Jorginho are players that should be very valuable to the I understand the need to cut their salary budget, a situation Boehly himself put them in by purchase almost every available in the market. Look at Real Madrid purchasing very expensive midfielders but still kept Modric and Kroos for a years more, so that the new young prospect also learn a lot from them, I still think Poch can make his own decision and not just have a replica tenure with that he had with PSG.

No man! Kante was already out of his depth; he only played less than 10 games for us last season and his time was up; Kovacic, too, spent much of his time in the hospital the last two seasons while earning a large salary; and Jorginho is no longer missed. Mount was the one player Poch suggested the team consider keeping, but there was little the club could do for someone looking for a big payday.

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Quote from: casperBGD on July 07, 2023, 05:44:15 AM

but, my pick will probably go to Brighton finishing 11 and below, @3.75

I really don't know man, but the odd isn't worth it in my candid opinion, because Leeds, Leicester, and Southampton are not in the league, and these are the teams you can expect to fight for a spot in the top 10 positions and without them, I believe increases their chances of finishing top 10, I might understand that they've made some sales that could affect their performance, but average point to finish top 10 in the EPL over these years is what you need to consider, how many wins would be needed of Brighton to reach that threshold.

Quote from: Trofo on July 08, 2023, 07:07:58 AM

Quote from: Igebotz on July 08, 2023, 06:40:26 AM

We won't be playing many games next season, so I expect Poch to take advantage of this and make the top4, and if he doesn't, with the quality of players we have at the club, it will be a failure, putting even more pressure on him, as you mentioned.

I think biggest problem for Chelsea is Boehly. He does not understand football, the kind we play in Europe, and that was the main reason for that atrocious transfer window. I still remember you were happy with the signings but if you ask me his transfer policy is the worst I have seen in a long time. You pay 70M for Mudryk, 120 for Fernandez and let Kante, Jorginho and Kovačić for almost nothing. Then you buy Fofana for 80M and let go of Mount. I know they aren't same position but they are connected since they are both English and PL clubs must have them.

Poch is a good manager, I just hope Boehly will listen to him and not do stuff his way.

I can still say Boehly is likely laying the wrong foundation for Poch to fail, Kante, Kovacic and Jorginho are players that should be very valuable to the I understand the need to cut their salary budget, a situation Boehly himself put them in by purchase almost every available in the market. Look at Real Madrid purchasing very expensive midfielders but still kept Modric and Kroos for a years more, so that the new young prospect also learn a lot from them, I still think Poch can make his own decision and not just have a replica tenure with that he had with PSG.

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 07, 2023, 01:28:55 PM

Quote from: hilariousandco on July 06, 2023, 06:17:36 AM

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^ Yup, they had to sell more than 10 of them to get the number down to around 25 and have some in the bank to spend. Brings down the wage budget too. I think Chelsea had 43 players including the guys that went up from their youth academy? Crazy...

But yeah, I'm excited the most for them in the EPL with Burnley a close second.

Let's see what Poch can do for the club. And how Kompany fares at the highest level.

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Quote from: swogerino on July 08, 2023, 08:15:45 AM

Last year I don't think it was Boehly fault by the way,it was exactly incompetent managers who could not put the right mentality and the right harmony between such good players,a thing I am sure will be corrected during Poch kingdom at Chelsea.

Chelsea had 35 world class turbo expensive players at the end of last season. No manager in the world can make them happy and no club in the world can pay those wages in the long run.

Whoever was in charge of transfers did terrible job. And I believe that was Boelhy. I am almost sure that without single transfer they would have finished the season better. And money spent in that transfer window set them back for years.

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Quote from: Trofo on July 08, 2023, 07:07:58 AM

Quote from: Igebotz on July 08, 2023, 06:40:26 AM

Quote from: Harkorede on July 07, 2023, 04:39:33 PM

I guess we can both agree he doesn't have a title winning mentality, and I don't that's what Chelsea is looking but we'll see, I guess. There is not going to be too much pressure on him, but if he's playing for the just the league and just the league cups, it'll will an utter failure to not make the top 4, wouldn't you think ? and that might be the every pressure he's going to face would stem from.

We won't be playing many games next season, so I expect Poch to take advantage of this and make the top4, and if he doesn't, with the quality of players we have at the club, it will be a failure, putting even more pressure on him, as you mentioned.

I think biggest problem for Chelsea is Boehly. He does not understand football, the kind we play in Europe, and that was the main reason for that atrocious transfer window. I still remember you were happy with the signings but if you ask me his transfer policy is the worst I have seen in a long time. You pay 70M for Mudryk, 120 for Fernandez and let Kante, Jorginho and Kovačić for almost nothing. Then you buy Fofana for 80M and let go of Mount. I know they aren't same position but they are connected since they are both English and PL clubs must have them.

Poch is a good manager, I just hope Boehly will listen to him and not do stuff his way.

I think Poch has already the full trust of Boehly and he will let Poch choose what players see fit,I have not seen any interference so far from him and Poch has been able to conduct his coaching normally.Poch also said that he has a clear idea which players he needs and with such statement I believe he leave no room to Boehly to spend in "vain" again.

Last year I don't think it was Boehly fault by the way,it was exactly incompetent managers who could not put the right mentality and the right harmony between such good players,a thing I am sure will be corrected during Poch kingdom at Chelsea.

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Quote from: Igebotz on July 08, 2023, 06:40:26 AM

Quote from: Harkorede on July 07, 2023, 04:39:33 PM

I guess we can both agree he doesn't have a title winning mentality, and I don't that's what Chelsea is looking but we'll see, I guess. There is not going to be too much pressure on him, but if he's playing for the just the league and just the league cups, it'll will an utter failure to not make the top 4, wouldn't you think ? and that might be the every pressure he's going to face would stem from.

We won't be playing many games next season, so I expect Poch to take advantage of this and make the top4, and if he doesn't, with the quality of players we have at the club, it will be a failure, putting even more pressure on him, as you mentioned.

I think biggest problem for Chelsea is Boehly. He does not understand football, the kind we play in Europe, and that was the main reason for that atrocious transfer window. I still remember you were happy with the signings but if you ask me his transfer policy is the worst I have seen in a long time. You pay 70M for Mudryk, 120 for Fernandez and let Kante, Jorginho and Kovačić for almost nothing. Then you buy Fofana for 80M and let go of Mount. I know they aren't same position but they are connected since they are both English and PL clubs must have them.

Poch is a good manager, I just hope Boehly will listen to him and not do stuff his way.

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 07, 2023, 01:28:55 PM

Too low?

+75% for a team that looks like a skating rink going through all the competitors? To be honest, I expected City quotes to be around 1.35-1.45 no more. Now I have a heavy feeling that I missed some important news and was generally mistaken.

Yes, I'm greedy, but I'd rather receive +75% of my stake on a basketball first half overs bet than have to wait a full calendar year for it. It's still not worth it.

Quote from: Harkorede on July 07, 2023, 04:39:33 PM

I'm not putting the Chelsea's failure during Lampard's tenure on the management, but the board needs to take some responsibility for hiring him the first place too, he was never qualified enough to coach Chelsea, at least not yet, what happened to David Moyes after his brilliant tenure at Everton he became an awful coach at Man Utd, and then his spell at was it Real Sociedad ? wasn't any different, but he's been not so terrible being back at West Ham, and you can say that the expectation are incomparable to what was expected of him at Real Sociedad or Man United.

If you're blaming out poor run on the management for hiring him then you're right, this is exactly what I wanted to hear.

Quote from: Harkorede on July 07, 2023, 04:39:33 PM

I guess we can both agree he doesn't have a title winning mentality, and I don't that's what Chelsea is looking but we'll see, I guess. There is not going to be too much pressure on him, but if he's playing for the just the league and just the league cups, it'll will an utter failure to not make the top 4, wouldn't you think ? and that might be the every pressure he's going to face would stem from.

We won't be playing many games next season, so I expect Poch to take advantage of this and make the top4, and if he doesn't, with the quality of players we have at the club, it will be a failure, putting even more pressure on him, as you mentioned.

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