Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 139.

BitcoinGirl.Club

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Quote from: KTChampions on April 24, 2023, 11:12:16 AM

Quote from: BitcoinGirl.Club on April 24, 2023, 09:45:03 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on April 23, 2023, 04:58:14 PM

Bad/good streaks don't last long (bad streaks for good clubs, good streaks for bad ones). And here, to be an optimist, one can argue like this: Arsenal has already gone through a decline in results, it will be better in the future - after all, 3 points in 3 games is the most obvious deviation from the average. Now look at City: 16 games unbeaten in all competitions. Hmm... I think we should expect some good news here.

Everything is good news for me if City lose their point. I don't mind any team to get the season title except City LOL
I am taking some risks in the City vs Arsenal match. We will see what happen.

Same here. In the Premier League I support United first of all, but if United can't take the title then I don't see any problem for Arsenal, Liverpool or any other team other than City to take the title. In the Champions League, the task is a little more difficult - there are two teams that I hate at once: City and PSG.
By the way, even before that round, when Dortmund overtook Bavaria, I wrote that there were many points losses ahead (about 25%) and nothing was decided. A similar situation here - everyone expects City to win endlessly, but this should not happen, so we continue to hope for the best.

I have different level of corner for PSG and mainly it's because of Massi. But I think PSG is an overrated team. They are rich that's only the reason.

In premier league City is a team who are way ahead than anyone else. The records speak for them the same as Real Madrid in Champions league The play offs between City and Madrid will be interesting even if City somehow manage to pass against Arsenal in the next PL match.

KTChampions

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Quote from: BitcoinGirl.Club on April 24, 2023, 09:45:03 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on April 23, 2023, 04:58:14 PM

Bad/good streaks don't last long (bad streaks for good clubs, good streaks for bad ones). And here, to be an optimist, one can argue like this: Arsenal has already gone through a decline in results, it will be better in the future - after all, 3 points in 3 games is the most obvious deviation from the average. Now look at City: 16 games unbeaten in all competitions. Hmm... I think we should expect some good news here.

Everything is good news for me if City lose their point. I don't mind any team to get the season title except City LOL
I am taking some risks in the City vs Arsenal match. We will see what happen.

Same here. In the Premier League I support United first of all, but if United can't take the title then I don't see any problem for Arsenal, Liverpool or any other team other than City to take the title. In the Champions League, the task is a little more difficult - there are two teams that I hate at once: City and PSG.
By the way, even before that round, when Dortmund overtook Bavaria, I wrote that there were many points losses ahead (about 25%) and nothing was decided. A similar situation here - everyone expects City to win endlessly, but this should not happen, so we continue to hope for the best.

BitcoinGirl.Club

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Quote from: KTChampions on April 23, 2023, 04:58:14 PM

Quote from: BitcoinGirl.Club on April 23, 2023, 02:48:38 PM

I thought Arsenal had a good chance to win the title but three draw in the last three matches is ruining their chances. I believe they will have more of these type of results. Eventually City is going to win it at least that's where we are heading now.

My round was not a good one. Below average with only 5.5 points but it's good to see one step up though.

Bad/good streaks don't last long (bad streaks for good clubs, good streaks for bad ones). And here, to be an optimist, one can argue like this: Arsenal has already gone through a decline in results, it will be better in the future - after all, 3 points in 3 games is the most obvious deviation from the average. Now look at City: 16 games unbeaten in all competitions. Hmm... I think we should expect some good news here.

Everything is good news for me if City lose their point. I don't mind any team to get the season title except City LOL
I am taking some risks in the City vs Arsenal match. We will see what happen.

Quote from: buwaytress on April 24, 2023, 08:10:45 AM

Quote from: hilariousandco on April 24, 2023, 03:45:08 AM

Crazy scores this weekend. Barely got any points at all and zero from yesterday. I've more chance of winning the wooden spoon than the yellow cap this season haha. I'm pretty much bottom of the table if you take away the people who have just stopped playing for whatever reasons.

Hear, hear. I was actually 4th from bottom at one stage, and that's bottom in reality with at least 3 players no longer putting in picks. I'm hanging on to a spot in La Liga, but it's a big mess everywhere else. Makes you question how much you really know about football, huh?

I remember once you were in the leading position on the pool. That's a shame.
But the season is so far exciting. I was once not even in top 40. Then somewhere in 10th to 15th before kicked out from top 30. Now it seems I am again in TOP 15th. The points are close to each others. One bad round will take anyone you away from top 10.

darxiaomi

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For the only thing i want to see Newcastle in Champions League next season, its because i really want to know who megastar are they gonna buy to his team.

And also to see if it was real the rumour we heard about Cristiano Ronaldo, coming back to England if Newcastle takes part in the next UCL.

CLS63

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Quote from: ILuckyGuyI on April 24, 2023, 03:13:56 AM

I'm really happy for taking the yellow cap this week and it is nice to do this on a week with a very special merch bundle.

I would like to thank Sportsbet.io and jeremypwr for this special week and gifts.

All of these gifts look really great.

Congratulations. I really wanted to win the yellow cap a lot this week. However I showed a very bad performance and I was quite left behind in the general table.

Quote from: buwaytress on April 24, 2023, 08:10:45 AM

I'm with LFC_Bitcoin. We don't deserve Champions League, so if we somehow steal it, it better not be from Newcastle... Spurs was a deeper humiliation than United's 7-0 I think.

I'm accepting that Newcastle have deserved the Champions League more than Liverpool for this season. However I'm siding with Liverpool because Liverpool can be one of the favourites of the Champions League by making two midfielder transfers next year.

Quote from: buwaytress on April 24, 2023, 08:10:45 AM

Hear, hear. I was actually 4th from bottom at one stage, and that's bottom in reality with at least 3 players no longer putting in picks. I'm hanging on to a spot in La Liga, but it's a big mess everywhere else. Makes you question how much you really know about football, huh?

It made me quite happy to see that I bet with the right person at the beginning of the year. Cheesy

buwaytress

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I'm with LFC_Bitcoin. We don't deserve Champions League, so if we somehow steal it, it better not be from Newcastle... Spurs was a deeper humiliation than United's 7-0 I think.

Quote from: hilariousandco on April 24, 2023, 03:45:08 AM

Crazy scores this weekend. Barely got any points at all and zero from yesterday. I've more chance of winning the wooden spoon than the yellow cap this season haha. I'm pretty much bottom of the table if you take away the people who have just stopped playing for whatever reasons.

Hear, hear. I was actually 4th from bottom at one stage, and that's bottom in reality with at least 3 players no longer putting in picks. I'm hanging on to a spot in La Liga, but it's a big mess everywhere else. Makes you question how much you really know about football, huh?

KTChampions

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Quote from: Betwrong on April 24, 2023, 03:01:45 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on April 18, 2023, 10:36:25 AM

By betting on a coefficient of 1.68, on average, you will win (1/1.68-0.045) * 0.68 = 0.374 mbtc
If you bet on at least 2.5 odds, then your average win will be (1/2.5 - 0.045) * 1.5 = 0.532 mbtc
The most profitable is to bet with odds in the range of 5-6 - so your average win will be in the region of 0.6 (almost twice as much as your choice gave on average).

I don't get this part, mate. Please, clarify it for me. I mean, this time in particular, my profit was 0.68 mBTC. That's higher than the average win from your example, 0.532 mbtc, for betting with 2.5 odds, and even higher than an average win for betting with odds in the range of 5-6. So, I should be happy, right?

But still it's interesting to me, what did you mean to say? What does 0.045 in your formula stand for?

This time you won, but this is not the average profit, but the maximum that you can get by making such a bet. When you place a bet, you must remember not only the best option, but above all the average value, because sometimes you are lucky, sometimes you are not.
My formula shows what the average result of a bet will be. 0.045 is the bookmaker's margin. In fact, it floats in the range from 4 to 6 percent, but I took about the average option (for top games, the margin is lower on average).
To find out how much you win on average (mathematical expectation), you must multiply the probability of winning by the winning itself.
(1/1.68-0.045) - this expression shows the probability of winning calculated with the bookmaker's margin. That is, the bookmaker gives a coefficient of 1.68 knowing that the real probability is not 1/1.68 (59.5%) but 55% and the fair coefficient should be 1.81
0.68 is obviously your winnings - the free bet is non-returnable.
Thus, on average, making such a bet you will receive only 0.374 mbtc. This is very small compared to the optimal options.
You should be happy that this time you got the maximum win, but in the future you should bet more optimally.

casperBGD

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Quote from: swogerino on April 24, 2023, 05:18:19 AM

~snip
Even the top guys with the yellow cap got very little points for a normal round of Premier League prediction,usually we see from 12.5 and up in normal rounds while here,it was 11 or 10.5 don't remember well now.

bear in mind that this was a smaller round, with just eight matches
however, getting 11.5 points is not great achievement, but isn't a worse either

Sunday was almost certain for no exact or close scores, due to results, Bournemouth burned down at home, and Tottenham cooked in Newcastle (win is not unexpected, but 5 goals in 21 minutes was a blast)
Kane scored just to shit out clean sheet for Newcastle

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Quote from: hilariousandco on April 24, 2023, 03:45:08 AM

Crazy scores this weekend. Barely got any points at all and zero from yesterday. I've more chance of winning the wooden spoon than the yellow cap this season haha. I'm pretty much bottom of the table if you take away the people who have just stopped playing for whatever reasons.

Even the top guys with the yellow cap got very little points for a normal round of Premier League prediction,usually we see from 12.5 and up in normal rounds while here,it was 11 or 10.5 don't remember well now.Just 6 weeks to go plus some games that have been postponed and I see myself in a prize spot,I hope to not go down further than 15th spot as I would love an extra weekly signature payment of 0.005 Bitcoin as a reward for that spot,the prize is good,is double compared to the entry fee but chances are for me to even go up to 6-7 place as a maximum as they are not that far away,it will all depend on these midweek games,can't wait for it,either for the bad either for the good I am happy with my performance so far in the pool this year.

hilariousandco

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Crazy scores this weekend. Barely got any points at all and zero from yesterday. I've more chance of winning the wooden spoon than the yellow cap this season haha. I'm pretty much bottom of the table if you take away the people who have just stopped playing for whatever reasons.

ILuckyGuyI

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Quote from: jeremypwr on April 18, 2023, 01:36:57 PM

How about we give away another Sportsbet.io merch bundle Cool

The winner(s) of the Round 32 Yellow Cap will also win:
Choice of Arsenal or Southampton Shirt AND Sportsbet.io Hoodie + Hat combo

*Limit one Sportsbet.io Hoodie + Hat combo per person*

I'm really happy for taking the yellow cap this week and it is nice to do this on a week with a very special merch bundle.

I would like to thank Sportsbet.io and jeremypwr for this special week and gifts.

All of these gifts look really great.

It was a really tough competition especially with @KTChampions and @Joca97 on this week. Grin

I totally enjoyed this competition and I'm happy for taking a yellow cap finally. I really love that black Arsenal shirt so it was a lucky time for me to get this chance to have one.

By the way West Ham and Newcastle both surprised me by getting really solid wins. I thought they would win but I wasn't expecting this kind of results at all. Especially Newcastle shocked me by scoring 5 goals in 20 minutes already.

Betwrong

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Quote from: KTChampions on April 18, 2023, 10:36:25 AM

~

Quote from: Betwrong on April 18, 2023, 05:17:09 AM

~
My only consolation is that yesterday, closer to the game, I made the right choice:

~

Congratulations, but I must say that it was really bet wrong. It seems to me that you should choose much higher odds in order to maximize the profitability of your freebets.

Normally I bet with much higher odds, but my bets are very small then. Betting with 1 mBTC at once, I'm afraid betting with 100.00+ odds, like I'm betting most of the time.

Quote from: KTChampions on April 18, 2023, 10:36:25 AM

By betting on a coefficient of 1.68, on average, you will win (1/1.68-0.045) * 0.68 = 0.374 mbtc
If you bet on at least 2.5 odds, then your average win will be (1/2.5 - 0.045) * 1.5 = 0.532 mbtc
The most profitable is to bet with odds in the range of 5-6 - so your average win will be in the region of 0.6 (almost twice as much as your choice gave on average).

I don't get this part, mate. Please, clarify it for me. I mean, this time in particular, my profit was 0.68 mBTC. That's higher than the average win from your example, 0.532 mbtc, for betting with 2.5 odds, and even higher than an average win for betting with odds in the range of 5-6. So, I should be happy, right?

But still it's interesting to me, what did you mean to say? What does 0.045 in your formula stand for?

famososMuertos

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Quote from: darxiaomi on April 23, 2023, 06:07:03 PM

...//..::

I think that the final stretch has become complicated, Arsenal depended on himself to be champion, but this last draw, I think they the only one who had it in his plans was SOU,

in fact that it did more damage to Arsenal than benefit for their interests of not fall to the descent

On the other hand, those results like New6 Vs. TOT 1 or BOU 1 Vs. WHU 4 are detrimental to the Top (pool), as in your case, it is not the same at the moment to receive 1point than 1.5, anyway, you know more about it than me, so my friend, good luck in this final stretch.

On the other hand the kit... Cry

darxiaomi

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Well as always i cant win the merch.

About the games, i was sleep the whole morning, and when i wake up and checked the results, wohhh man, Newcastle demolished 6-1 Totenham, i expected the win of Newcastle but damn..... that was so much.

And in West Ham Bournemont, i dont expect such fall in the home team, 4-0 was unpredictable also.

Now Liverpool its again in the race to clib some positions , and Brighton needs to play the remaining games they have to really know his table position.

About Arsenal game , im not going to make any commentary. Pure fear in them.

KTChampions

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Quote from: BitcoinGirl.Club on April 23, 2023, 02:48:38 PM

I thought Arsenal had a good chance to win the title but three draw in the last three matches is ruining their chances. I believe they will have more of these type of results. Eventually City is going to win it at least that's where we are heading now.

My round was not a good one. Below average with only 5.5 points but it's good to see one step up though.

Bad/good streaks don't last long (bad streaks for good clubs, good streaks for bad ones). And here, to be an optimist, one can argue like this: Arsenal has already gone through a decline in results, it will be better in the future - after all, 3 points in 3 games is the most obvious deviation from the average. Now look at City: 16 games unbeaten in all competitions. Hmm... I think we should expect some good news here.

BitcoinGirl.Club

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Quote from: swogerino on April 22, 2023, 01:30:16 AM

Quote from: Harkorede on April 21, 2023, 09:50:26 PM

Quote from: swogerino on April 21, 2023, 02:33:17 PM

Arsenal looks like really does not want to win the Premier League this year,I thought that they were going to have an easy win tonight but so far they are suffering to get past Southampton which until now is leading 1-2 and is having difficulties to get back on level term already in the first half.Maybe they took it a bit easy in the beginning as they got 0-2 in less than 15 minutes of the game and that was shocking for them but if they are not able to turn things around here it means their fight for becoming Premier League Champions this year is already over,of course I believe they will turn things around though.

I really don't know if I should say Arsenal deserved more than a point which they got, because they put themselves under enormous unnecessary situation that early into the game, and couldn't still find their rhythm until they conceded the 2nd goals, so that makes it some 6 points they've thrown away in the last 3 games, is there anyway to actually stop Man City from making the most of this situation, the only form of redemption for Arsenal now is the toughest compared to the last 3 they had and couldn't handle properly, facing Man City at the Etihad with Arsenal literally needing to get all 3 points from that game, I don't fancy their chances there to be very honest.

I don't fancy their chances there either,they could not keep up from 0-2 to Liverpool a couple of weeks ago while Manchester City is on fire both in the Premier League and the Champions League where they eliminated very easily Bayern Munchen who had not lost a single game until the clash against Manchester City and this to me says a lot about their performance right now.Arsenal is forced to all in there if they want to have a chance still at winning the Premier League but going all in against Manchester City is something extremely dangerous to do,no other way for Arsenal though.

I thought Arsenal had a good chance to win the title but three draw in the last three matches is ruining their chances. I believe they will have more of these type of results. Eventually City is going to win it at least that's where we are heading now.

My round was not a good one. Below average with only 5.5 points but it's good to see one step up though.

LFC_Bitcoin

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Just watching Brighton vs Man Utd, quite an intense game, not too many big chances but it’s a pulsating, fiercely competitive game so far. I think Brighton are probably playing the better football but Man Utd defending and battling well.

This one is going to be very close, could even go into extra time. There isn’t much between the two teams. Alexis Mac Allister and Calceido are top class, I’d take them both at Liverpool.

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on April 23, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

We don’t deserve it any way, good luck to Newcastle they totally deserve it.

Fun fact this is the highest number of goals scored by Newcastle this season across all cups and league. I guess they are intending of going hard on these last couple of remaining fixtures huh

Quote from: Woodie on April 23, 2023, 09:43:53 AM

At this point its safe to say the current top four contenders will be qualifying for the champions league, the rest can try to fight for a europa spot and good luck to them!

Well not really I'd say Manchester United is in terrible shape right now to keep their spot as there are tons of injuries on their reliable defenders. Yeah I used the word 'reliable' as I wouldnt lump Maguire into that category so yeah things could get south for United though on some remaining games

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on April 23, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

I was hoping for a Spurs win or even a draw to keep Liverpool’s very slim chances of getting top 4 alive. We don’t deserve it any way, good luck to Newcastle they totally deserve it. That was one hell of a capitulation by Spurs, embarrassing lack of balls. I guess the old saying Spursy rings true again, losing courses through the veins of that club.

If Tottenham had won it wouldn't have improved Liverpool's chances - I don't think it's easier to beat two teams that have a 6 point lead both than one team that has a 9 point lead. The only good option for Liverpool was a draw, but Newcastle are showing that they are really strong and ready for the Champions League.

I did not expect that after a terrible result in Arsenal's game, this tour will bring positive emotions, but in the end I got a yellow cap. As is ILuckyGuyI. Congratulations!

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Quote from: Woodie on April 23, 2023, 09:43:53 AM

There goes another point in the drain,how does Tottenham go down 6 goal to 1 and match has 7 minutes plus added time to go...very disappointing result from Spurs tbh.

At this point its safe to say the current top four contenders will be qualifying for the champions league, the rest can try to fight for a europa spot and good luck to them!

I was hoping for a Spurs win or even a draw to keep Liverpool’s very slim chances of getting top 4 alive. We don’t deserve it any way, good luck to Newcastle they totally deserve it. That was one hell of a capitulation by Spurs, embarrassing lack of balls. I guess the old saying Spursy rings true again, losing courses through the veins of that club.

Topic: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 139. (Read 140643 times)