Personally, I'm surprised that most bettors are favoring three movies, 1917, Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood above Joker. I think Joker is not just a good movie, it's a revolution in the world of cinema. To me it's an art-house film that grossed over $1 billion in the box office, which has never happened before. And officially it's the first R-rated film to do so. Such achievements deserve the highest awards imaginable (and Oscar for the Best Picture is one of them, of course).
I don't think its a revolution or anything, but it was a great movie which I thoroughly enjoyed thanks primarily due to Phoenix's acting. It rightfully deserves an Oscar, but it most probably won't win it since Oscars are not usually awarded to the most commercially successful movies which is why most bettors bet on the movies that you mentioned.
Don't get me wrong, I think Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are great movies, and before I saw Joker, I thought one of them will get the prize. But now I think that Joker is beyond competition.
If collections were a major criteria, Marvel movies like Endgame would decimate the competition. Not many including me care about these awards to be honest. It all comes down to subjective taste at the end of the day. For example, I loved Endgame way more than any of the movies in this list.
