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Topic: Starfish BCB - Loans and Deposits - page 4. (Read 60461 times)

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
October 25, 2012, 05:19:49 PM
There are still a few good people making their regular scheduled payments, but they remain the minority in BTCland

such as who? Tongue x
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
October 25, 2012, 05:06:01 PM
Updated list @ https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.981017

With GLBSE it's own little fiasco, and having stopped taking on productive loans a couple of months ago, it is no longer sensible or appropriate to accrue interest.  Everyone is on the same payout formula.

Found another borrower indirectly exposed to BS&T and have arranged for their repayment (300BTC) to be delayed another month.
jme621, despite his claim to the contrary, has not made any further contact in the last month
There are still a few good people making their regular scheduled payments, but they remain the minority in BTCland

newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
October 25, 2012, 03:50:01 PM
I don't agree that that's an obvious risk.

A big reason I deposited with Patrick is because he is assuming the risk of loans going bad. If I knew that his guaranteed deposits really meant "guaranteed unless loans go bad", then I never would have deposited with Patrick.  If I wanted to assume the risk of loss (and thus potentially higher profit), I could have made loans to other people myself.

You're saying I couldn't have foreseen the possibility of Patrick's loans going bad, and thus Patrick shouldn't have to pay me back. That's false. I did expect there was a possibility Patrick's loans could go bad. That's the whole point of depositing with Patrick: he guarantees his deposits against that scenario.
legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1026
Mining since 2010 & Hosting since 2012
October 25, 2012, 03:14:46 PM
It was a common mistaken belief that the loans were not correlated and that there did not exist a common event that would or could cause a significant fraction of loans to default at the same time. The question is whether the contract allocated this specific risk.


I believe they call that "fat tail" risk or a Black Swan event.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
October 25, 2012, 06:34:25 AM
Nothing specified what would happen in the event of a coordinated payback (everybody paid their loans back to Patrick, giving him more profit than he expected). Thus, in this hypothetical case, Patrick should equitably split all profits with his depositors (above and beyond the stated rate)?
I've never heard of equitable mistake being applied to an unforeseen boon. If you think equitable mistake should apply to a boon, then you could make this argument. Though I'm not sure how it would result in more profit than expected, but if you accept that for the sake of argument.

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Patrick guaranteed his deposits and did not place any conditions on that guarantee. Obviously one of the risks to Patrick is that many loans default at the same time, possibly because they are correlated. That is an obvious risk that a lender faces.
I don't agree that that's an obvious risk. In fact, I can show you places where many people (including people who invested with Patrick) denied that such a risk existed.

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Patrick is one of the few people trying to make good on his obligations. I respect Joel, but I don't see why he is now encouraging Patrick to turn into a scammer. Even Patrick hasn't suggested that he should renege on his guarantee.
I'm not sure what you're arguing here. Are you saying I should keep my mouth shut and not say what I honestly believe because it might cost people money? I'm not telling Patrick what to do.

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I think it's time for Patrick to respond. Patrick, are you going to stand by your guarantee and be the honest person most people believe you to be, or are you going to let Joel turn you into a scammer?
It's not scamming for Patrick to equitably allocate an unforeseen risk. I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate that you have some connection to someone Patrick owes money to.
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
October 25, 2012, 05:08:13 AM
That's true, but I don't see why that matters.

Nothing specified what would happen in the event of a coordinated payback (everybody paid their loans back to Patrick, giving him more profit than he expected). Thus, in this hypothetical case, Patrick should equitably split all profits with his depositors (above and beyond the stated rate)? You are saying no, and in the opposite case, he doesn't get to push losses to his depositors when he guaranteed their funds.

Patrick guaranteed his deposits and did not place any conditions on that guarantee. Obviously one of the risks to Patrick is that many loans default at the same time, possibly because they are correlated. That is an obvious risk that a lender faces.

Patrick is one of the few people trying to make good on his obligations. I respect Joel, but I don't see why he is now encouraging Patrick to turn into a scammer. Even Patrick hasn't suggested that he should renege on his guarantee. I think it's time for Patrick to respond. Patrick, are you going to stand by your guarantee and be the honest person most people believe you to be, or are you going to let Joel turn you into a scammer?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
October 24, 2012, 11:11:27 PM
If you believe the contract implicitly allocates that risk to Patrick, then equitable mistake wouldn't apply.

Patrick explicitly allocated the risk to himself. Thus, equitable mistake doesn't apply.
I read this as allocating the risk that individual loans will default, not the risk that of correlated default. He can't have explicitly allocated a risk he didn't know existed.

I know there are some risks involved and potential to lose serious money on some of the loans I have out in the wild.
This is talking again about the risk of individual loans defaulting, not coordinated default due to common risk.

I... carry the risk from bad loans and the timing of requests.
Again, in context, this referred to the risk that individual loans would default.

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As coinft points out, if the loans had done better than expected the excess profits wouldn't have been equitably split, they would have gone to Patrick.
That's true, but I don't see why that matters. The issue is whether and how they agreed to allocate the risk of coordinated default. I agree the contract allocates any "excess" profit to Patrick. But that says nothing about whether or how it allocates the risk of coordinated default.

It was a common mistaken belief that the loans were not correlated and that there did not exist a common event that would or could cause a significant fraction of loans to default at the same time. The question is whether the contract allocated this specific risk.
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
October 24, 2012, 05:31:12 PM
I do not quite agree with the contract being risk neutral. The contract implicitly allocates the risk on Patrick's side by promising only a fixed and capped rate. In the opposite event of this business going better than expected there'd be no doubt the excess goes to Patrick for the risk taken.

Now for Kraken, this argument might hold better.

The argument does not hold better for Kraken. Patrick also explicitly stated that any losses in Kraken would be covered by himself personally, and that he "insured" contributed deposits. Patrick caps the rate in Kraken too, and explicitly states that excess profits are kept by Patrick, and losses will be covered by Patrick.

Contributed capital is backed by my personal funds.
...
any losses will be funded personally.
...
Returns obtained over and above 2.5% are taken as my fee - that's how I can afford to support the minimum return and "insure" the capital.

In both Starfish BCB and Kraken, Patrick gets to keep any profits above the rate cap, and he has to cover any losses.

Edit: Here's another quote from Patrick stating that he guarantees the full 100BTC value of a 100BTC Kraken deposit unit and is responsible for losses:

I am guaranteeing a minimum 100BTC price so am exposed to losses.
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
October 24, 2012, 05:10:54 PM
If you believe the contract implicitly allocates that risk to Patrick, then equitable mistake wouldn't apply.

Patrick explicitly allocated the risk to himself. Thus, equitable mistake doesn't apply.

I know there are some risks involved and potential to lose serious money on some of the loans I have out in the wild.

I... carry the risk from bad loans and the timing of requests.

This is explained a few posts up:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1291861

As coinft points out, if the loans had done better than expected the excess profits wouldn't have been equitably split, they would have gone to Patrick.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
October 24, 2012, 04:10:14 PM
I do not quite agree with the contract being risk neutral. The contract implicitly allocates the risk on Patrick's side by promising only a fixed and capped rate. In the opposite event of this business going better than expected there'd be no doubt the excess goes to Patrick for the risk taken.
If you believe the contract implicitly allocates that risk to Patrick, then equitable mistake wouldn't apply. I don't think it allocates the risk that a large number of loans will fail at about the same time due to a hidden interdependency. I believe the contract was premised on a shared understanding that the loans were fundamentally sound.
full member
Activity: 187
Merit: 100
October 24, 2012, 03:08:31 PM
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
October 23, 2012, 04:31:29 PM
Yes, payments have been processed and sent.

You didn't update the balances like you usually do.  And it looks like last week you updated the balances, but not the date of the last update.

Correct - will update it again this week.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
October 23, 2012, 02:27:43 PM
Greetings, how can I deposit in Starfish BCB?  There is no info in the OP, does that mean that it's closed to new depositors?  Also, is there a minimum amount to deposit, or any other kind of limits?  Thanks!
Since it's in partial default and has no reasonable business model that would permit it to pay you interest, you probably don't want to deposit.
newbie
Activity: 31
Merit: 0
October 23, 2012, 01:47:53 PM
Greetings, how can I deposit in Starfish BCB?  There is no info in the OP, does that mean that it's closed to new depositors?  Also, is there a minimum amount to deposit, or any other kind of limits?  Thanks!
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
October 23, 2012, 05:27:59 AM
Both parties incorrectly (arguably, equally negligently) believed Starfish's high-interest loan model was sound. There's no evidence in the contract that the risk that the business model was fundamentally unsound was intended to be allocated to Patrick. So the contract cannot equitably be enforced as drafted because a situation not foreseen by the contract came to be. The risk of the unsound business model has to be allocated among the parties somehow, the contract doesn't specify how to allocate it, equity demands it be split.

Patrick described his deposits as guaranteed. He stated that he carries the risk from bad loans. That means that he takes the loss if his loans go bad.

Patrick knew that the loans were risky and had the "potential to lose serious money":

I know there are some risks involved and potential to lose serious money on some of the loans I have out in the wild.

I have a diversified portfolio of investments, a good mix of customers and carry the risk from bad loans and the timing of requests.

This isn’t a charity and there is real money at stake. For January 2012 I have done a dozen loans, have one bad and another was “impaired” for a while before being paid back. There are two others due in February that I've flagged as higher risk, that’s why the interest rates are high.

Lending and Seeking a Loan
I decide if you’re a good credit risk or not.

These quotes show that the risk that the business model was unsound was intended to be allocated to Patrick. Even though he knew he had the "potential to lose serious money" on his loans, Patrick guaranteed his deposits and explicitly stated that he carries the risk for bad loans. Thus, Patrick is on the hook for all of the losses and is responsible for paying pack his deposits. Simple.

Patrick is doing his best to live up to his promise, as he should, and I commend him for it.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
October 23, 2012, 12:16:40 AM
I would need to see an analogous case and then agree with it, I can't imagine one myself. Anything can be a common mistake. For instance, I don't believe that there is a "common mistake" in my example, the borrower is just being an asshole. A lender is not a partner. You're not at fault if I tricked you.
If both sides have a mutual misunderstanding that causes the contract to misallocate costs or risks, fairness requires that the misallocation be corrected unless the contract shows an intent to allocate the risk. Not all legal systems recognize a concept of "equitable mistake", but I don't think there's any serious disagreement that it's equitable.

A classic example would be two parties who each believe that a ship sunk in a particular place and negotiate a fixed-cost contract to retrieve the ship for a specified fee. If it turns out the ship was elsewhere and is therefore much more expensive to recover, fairness requires the fee be adjusted appropriately. This, of course, only applies if the party seeking the re-adjustment is not comparatively more at fault for the incorrect information. It also only applies if the contract doesn't show an intent to allocate the risk that the information was incorrect to the party being paid to recover the ship.

This situation is analogous. Both parties incorrectly (arguably, equally negligently) believed Starfish's high-interest loan model was sound. There's no evidence in the contract that the risk that the business model was fundamentally unsound was intended to be allocated to Patrick. So the contract cannot equitably be enforced as drafted because a situation not foreseen by the contract came to be. The risk of the unsound business model has to be allocated among the parties somehow, the contract doesn't specify how to allocate it, equity demands it be split.

Again, not all legal systems recognize a doctrine of equitable mistake. Some will insist a contract be enforced as written even if a risk that contract fails to allocate (due to a common mistake of fact shared by both partied to the contract and forming part of the basis of the actual "mental" agreement) materializes unless that makes complying with the contract impossible. But there are very few people who think this is actually fair.

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
October 22, 2012, 11:51:07 PM
Yes, payments have been processed and sent.

You didn't update the balances like you usually do.  And it looks like last week you updated the balances, but not the date of the last update.
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 1002
October 19, 2012, 07:00:35 AM
So a contract becomes something other than what it states, not because the risk is high, but the return is "insincere". So I don't have to pay what I borrowed from you and can just say "did you honestly believe that I was making that kind of profit?" and you're okay with this.
Yes, exactly. This is called "common mistake". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mistake_%28contract_law%29

I would need to see an analogous case and then agree with it, I can't imagine one myself. Anything can be a common mistake. For instance, I don't believe that there is a "common mistake" in my example, the borrower is just being an asshole. A lender is not a partner. You're not at fault if I tricked you.

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Also, even though GLBSE shutdown was a known risk, I don't think anyone had predicted such a mess. This was almost engineered in a way to cause as much trouble as possible.
That's practically the definition of force majeure. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure

These are all reasons a contract won't, and shouldn't, be enforced as agreed.

Then why do you pursue the hotel's assets after the earthquake and not the casino?

Everyone is responsible for honoring their contracts to the furthest extent possible. The only reason I wouldn't ask someone to honor their contract is if I see that other contracts they have is in conflict with it, and I have more regard for those contracts; like starving kids and whatnot.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
October 18, 2012, 06:40:26 PM
Yes, payments have been processed and sent.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
Drunk Posts
October 18, 2012, 06:23:23 PM
Received a small payment today. Keep it up Smiley
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