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Topic: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on[Havelock] - page 121. (Read 300686 times)

full member
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What will be the GH/share when BFL delivers?
legendary
Activity: 938
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What's a GPU?
Dividend accidentally not get put in again?

Yes, and I really apologize for paying dividends late two weeks in a row! In my mind that is unacceptable, so don't get used to it.

I was in St. Louis for the World FRC Robotics Championship where we took 14th place of 400 teams. We didn't get in the top 5 because we dropped our 120 lb bot from a 10 foot tall pyramid! So we were dysfunctional for two of our eight qualification matches which set us back substantially. We had a few super long and stressful days, so although it isn't a good excuse, that is mine for neglecting to pay dividends on time.

Because of this, I'm going to build a script that will use the BTC-TC API and transfer bitcoins to the account and schedule dividends automatically. Hopefully after that is in place this will be a non-issue.

Awaiting delivery of our ASICs,
Garrett
hero member
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It was 0.00057694 per share today.
member
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Dividend accidentally not get put in again?
member
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above post means: NEWS: BFL jalapenos have been shipped to special developers

Unboxing of one is in the vid.
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legendary
Activity: 938
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What's a GPU?
Dividends today?  Did I miss some news about this?

Last night I moved the coins to the BTC-TC and forgot to schedule the dividend. In an attempt to make up for any potential losses caused by this delay of a few hours, I've added an additional 1btc to the dividend.

I apologize for any inconveniances that this might have caused.

Have a good weekend,
Garrett
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Dividends today?  Did I miss some news about this?

hero member
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March 29 2013
Quote from: Josh
I want to clarify the above post, as there is some potential confusion. We are not shipping yet. We plan on shipping possibly by the end of next week, but I will update on a shipping schedule as soon as I have more definitive information with regards to that.

Two weeks later...

Quote
15 April 2013 Update

Short update today, more to come in the next day or two, hopefully.

We've been working on getting the software and firmware nailed down. Things are mostly stabilized at this point and with our current boards (we do not have the redesigned boards in house yet), power usage exceeds the 1w/GH, unfortunately, but it's much better than anything out by 40 - 50%, at the wall. We are gearing up to start shipping out some dev boards and a few Jalapeno's most likely this week (at least a few dev boards) and then as more chips roll in we'll be shipping out the Jalapeno's. When the new boards land in KC, we'll start shipping Little Singles and Singles at that time. I don't currently have a time frame for those, but I should have something later this week in regards to that.

Obviously, the minirig can't fit 1.5 TH/s in a case the size of what we were planning, but we have some interesting solutions with regards to that. Expect and update on there as well, but I did want to let everyone know we have several solutions to solve the minirig issue and we are moving forward on that front.

I did want to quash any rumors that there was something wrong with the chips; there isn't. The chips themselves are fine (other than using more power than we expected), the delay is strictly due to having to re-engineer the power system on the boards (which requires a larger PCB redesign to a degree) and refine/streamline our processes for getting chips from silicon to mounted on boards. Things will be rolling along soon, albeit a bit slow at first, and then picking up speed as the whole process is optimized and finalized.
hero member
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Also, to only price Cognitive in BTC is a mistake.  I have been pricing everything in my local currency as can be seen in my earlier posts.  As an article today better explains than I could ever:

You maybe misunderstand how I value it.  As with all mining securities I'm effectively valuing them in USD then converting it into BTC at the current exchange-rate.

Put simply I value them at the answer to the question:

"If I were to purchase hardware with hashing power equal to what the company has, then split that across the number of outstanding shares they have, what would the result be?"

Then adjust it up (or down) if there's factors that tend to make the company a better (or worse) investment than most - which, in my view, would be upwards for Cognitive.

The answer to that question varies massively with the exchange-rate - i.e. it falls a ton when BTC rises a lot vs USD.   Which is, of course, a large part of the reason why historically few mining companies have ended up making a profit (for investors).

With pre-orders then the base for valuation is what it would cost now to pre-order the same (or equivalent).  Adjusted upward to compensate for the earlier delivery existing pre-orders can expect and adjusted down in line with whatever your view is of the likelihood of delivery never happening (or happening so late as make them near worthless).

Pretty sure most "investors" don't so anything like that - their means of valuing a company is to see what range it's trading in and (if they're smarter than average - which doesn't actually mean a lot) buy towards the bottom of that range.
full member
Activity: 251
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Du hast
Im a significant holder now due to what i think is undervalued stock. So im looking forward to bfl shipping.

How are you valuing COGNITIVE?  If I do very quick back of the napkin math, and divide the 7d avg of ASICMINER-PT by the 7d avg of COGNITIVE and multiply by COGNITIVE's most recent dividend, it comes up short almost 40%
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Actually I think you'll find part of the reason for the discount on Cognitive shares IS the existence of COG.F.  Cognitive shares will tend to fall until they're slightly above COG.F.  They've likely fallen too far - but in the recent bull market for BTC nearly all share prices have been taking a kicking (ASICMINER being the notable exception).  Certainly, at a MINIMUM, Cognitive should be trading at .125 + the expected dividends to be paid out until COG.F hardware arrives.

That's unless someone has done the math and determined that even with the COG.F hardware it's still overpriced at .125.  I haven't actually done the math for Cognitive on that - but it's not impossible.  The approximate value of Cognitive ignoring COG.F is the cost of 7 Singles equivalent at the new prices + the 2nd-hand value of the existing mining gear converted into BTC and divided by the outstanding shares.  As that's what it would cost to order that hardware now.  That would then need to be marked up because it's an already running company with infrastructure in place and a solid reputation.  And further marked up because pre-orders already in place are worth more than new orders.  But that's how I value mining companies - haven't actually done it for Cognitive yet though (I've been lazy and been trading it based on a floor price of around .12).

Until the BFL's ASIC are confirmed being shipped and not some April Fool's prank, those 7 BFLs are vaporware and should not be priced in Cognitive.  Also, to only price Cognitive in BTC is a mistake.  I have been pricing everything in my local currency as can be seen in my earlier posts.  As an article today better explains than I could ever:

To put things simply: every good in Bitcoinia is an import and every job must be offshored. In that kind of economy, exchange-rate volatility matters a very great deal indeed.

Any new person just getting into bitcoin and then using their bitcoins to purchase shares of Cognitive would be paying a price of the BTCUSD * COGNITIVE.  For example, at the peak, if someone wanted to purchase Cognitive they would have paid $260 * 0.1 = $26.00/share.  This is in contrast to the IPO in which Cognitive was about $2.50/share.

Is that overpriced?  I am not sure as the BFLs are a mystery.  At some point after all the missed deadlines by BFL they should be written off.
hero member
Activity: 532
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will COG.F be converted to cognitive shares upon delivery of the 7 BFL singles or is it some other conditions?

My understanding (garrett can correct this) is that COG.F will remain a separate fund until the funds have been spent and until the equipment purchased with those funds is hashing.

That is correct. The 7 SC Singles are unrelated to COG.F.

Davos, the intent of COG.F was to provide investors incentive to make substantial investments, while maintaining a competitive price. A split would defeat those purposes (or at least one of them).

I believe when the Bitcoin exchange rate stabilizes a bit, the cognitive price will rise as well. Because after all we're generating roughly the same amount of btc regardless what the exchange rate is Smiley Also when BFL delivers I believe Cognitive price will rise.

Best,
Garrett

I think I'm glad to hear it Re: no-split. The only concern I have is that when the IPO was issued it was a very nice discount against the main-fund shares (even including the potential hit from the dilution), but at the moment there's almost zero liquidity in the fund shares and the discount doesn't really exist.

I hold a fair bit of COG.F (relative to the 31 shares sold so far) and balance future purchases against the main-issue price and ASICMINER. ASICMINER has a lot of future hashing power already priced in (although I think it's still cheap), whereas it seems to me that COGNITIVE is being discounted heavily, perhaps based on the lack of certainty in the BFL timeline.

Actually I think you'll find part of the reason for the discount on Cognitive shares IS the existence of COG.F.  Cognitive shares will tend to fall until they're slightly above COG.F.  They've likely fallen too far - but in the recent bull market for BTC nearly all share prices have been taking a kicking (ASICMINER being the notable exception).  Certainly, at a MINIMUM, Cognitive should be trading at .125 + the expected dividends to be paid out until COG.F hardware arrives.

That's unless someone has done the math and determined that even with the COG.F hardware it's still overpriced at .125.  I haven't actually done the math for Cognitive on that - but it's not impossible.  The approximate value of Cognitive ignoring COG.F is the cost of 7 Singles equivalent at the new prices + the 2nd-hand value of the existing mining gear converted into BTC and divided by the outstanding shares.  As that's what it would cost to order that hardware now.  That would then need to be marked up because it's an already running company with infrastructure in place and a solid reputation.  And further marked up because pre-orders already in place are worth more than new orders.  But that's how I value mining companies - haven't actually done it for Cognitive yet though (I've been lazy and been trading it based on a floor price of around .12).
member
Activity: 106
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will COG.F be converted to cognitive shares upon delivery of the 7 BFL singles or is it some other conditions?

My understanding (garrett can correct this) is that COG.F will remain a separate fund until the funds have been spent and until the equipment purchased with those funds is hashing.

That is correct. The 7 SC Singles are unrelated to COG.F.

Davos, the intent of COG.F was to provide investors incentive to make substantial investments, while maintaining a competitive price. A split would defeat those purposes (or at least one of them).

I believe when the Bitcoin exchange rate stabilizes a bit, the cognitive price will rise as well. Because after all we're generating roughly the same amount of btc regardless what the exchange rate is Smiley Also when BFL delivers I believe Cognitive price will rise.

Best,
Garrett

I think I'm glad to hear it Re: no-split. The only concern I have is that when the IPO was issued it was a very nice discount against the main-fund shares (even including the potential hit from the dilution), but at the moment there's almost zero liquidity in the fund shares and the discount doesn't really exist.

I hold a fair bit of COG.F (relative to the 31 shares sold so far) and balance future purchases against the main-issue price and ASICMINER. ASICMINER has a lot of future hashing power already priced in (although I think it's still cheap), whereas it seems to me that COGNITIVE is being discounted heavily, perhaps based on the lack of certainty in the BFL timeline.


legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
What's a GPU?
will COG.F be converted to cognitive shares upon delivery of the 7 BFL singles or is it some other conditions?

My understanding (garrett can correct this) is that COG.F will remain a separate fund until the funds have been spent and until the equipment purchased with those funds is hashing.

That is correct. The 7 SC Singles are unrelated to COG.F.

Davos, the intent of COG.F was to provide investors incentive to make substantial investments, while maintaining a competitive price. A split would defeat those purposes (or at least one of them).

I believe when the Bitcoin exchange rate stabilizes a bit, the cognitive price will rise as well. Because after all we're generating roughly the same amount of btc regardless what the exchange rate is Smiley Also when BFL delivers I believe Cognitive price will rise.

Best,
Garrett
member
Activity: 106
Merit: 10
will COG.F be converted to cognitive shares upon delivery of the 7 BFL singles or is it some other conditions?

My understanding (garrett can correct this) is that COG.F will remain a separate fund until the funds have been spent and until the equipment purchased with those funds is hashing.



Garrett - given that the current BTC2.5 share price of COG.F is >$500 per share, would it not make more sense to do a 10:1 or 20:1 split to put the COG.F shares into a more liquid price?

On that end, main-issue COGNITIVE shares have been trading below BTC0.125 which is the share price implied by the COG.F IPO price. Anything anyone MIGHT be putting into COG.F at the moment is likely being directed at main-issue shares or other securities entirely.
hero member
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will COG.F be converted to cognitive shares upon delivery of the 7 BFL singles or is it some other conditions?
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Re: First BFL ASIC! thread: is this where we all party? Tongue Share price for the main Cognitive fund is already back up to 0.29. Good news..

Reading the comments does not look very good.
sr. member
Activity: 315
Merit: 255
Re: First BFL ASIC! thread: is this where we all party? Tongue Share price for the main Cognitive fund is already back up to 0.29. Good news..
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