Topic: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on[Havelock] - page 62. (Read 300752 times)

Good point. First, the difficulty increase will not be linear. Then the diff increase could be much less than expected in the mid/long term.

Not all of those CogF2 600 shares were sold.

100 CogF shares
100 CogF2 shares

That means 4000 incoming Cognitive shares. Resulting in about 2 GH/s/share.

I'd like to add that you should take in account that the ASIC tech is top of the bill. I don't expect speed/power improvements that are as huge as the transition from GPU to ASIC for the coming 5 years. Which means that the hardware could be viable for a much longer time compared to first gen ASICs.

Seriously...after everything that has happened with this "security" the past 2-3 months you find the fact of unaccounted shares surprising?

I should've sold my holdings when I only got 6.65 BTC of my 8.5 BTC avalon chip order back from Garr.

And given this company is being run by a proven scammer who refuses to answer any direct questions, I'm certain that this will be happening.

@ 30% Difficulty increase
28.75TH/s

Est Date      Difficulty           24 hrs BTC       Total BTC/Diff   Accumulated BTC

13 Jan 2014   1,789,546,951   8.07945404   88.87399447   88.87399447
24 Jan 2014   2,326,411,036   6.21496465   68.36461113   157.23860560
04 Feb 2014   3,024,334,347   4.78074204   52.58816241   209.82676800
15 Feb 2014   3,931,634,651   3.67749387   40.45243262   250.27920062
26 Feb 2014   5,111,125,047   2.82884144   31.11725586   281.39645648
09 Mar 2014   6,644,462,561   2.17603188   23.93635066   305.33280715
20 Mar 2014   8,637,801,329   1.67387068   18.41257743   323.74538458
31 Mar 2014   11,229,141,728   1.28759283   14.16352110   337.90890568
11 Apr 2014   14,597,884,246   0.99045602   10.89501623   348.80392191
22 Apr 2014   18,977,249,520   0.76188925   8.38078172   357.18470363
03 May 2014   24,670,424,376   0.58606865   6.44675517   363.63145880
14 May 2014   32,071,551,689   0.45082204   4.95904244   368.59050124
25 May 2014   41,693,017,195   0.34678618   3.81464803   372.40514926
05 Jun 2014   54,200,922,354   0.26675860   2.93434464   375.33949390
16 Jun 2014   70,461,199,060   0.20519893   2.25718818   377.59668208
27 Jun 2014   91,599,558,778   0.15784533   1.73629860   379.33298068
08 Jul 2014      119,079,426,411   0.12141948   1.33561431   380.66859499
19 Jul 2014      154,803,254,334   0.09339960   1.02739562   381.69599062
30 Jul 2014      201,244,230,634   0.07184585   0.79030432   382.48629494
10 Aug 2014   261,617,499,825   0.05526604   0.60792640   383.09422134
21 Aug 2014   340,102,749,772   0.04251234   0.46763570   383.56185704
01 Sep 2014   442,133,574,704   0.03270180   0.35971977   383.92157680
12 Sep 2014   574,773,647,115   0.02515523   0.27670751   384.19828432
23 Sep 2014   747,205,741,249   0.01935018   0.21285193   384.41113625
04 Oct 2014   971,367,463,624   0.01488475   0.16373226   384.57486850

So what you're saying is it would be a bad deal.

I'd agree, but I'm pretty sure (their website is messed up for me now, probably under high traffic) I saw under "shop" that april orders were sold out and they were taking orders for may, implying that we can't just add to any order that would arrive before may.  And there is considerable uncertainty that 2TH/s in may for $6000 is a good deal at this time.

If we can, we should add on to the Jan 30 cointerra order.

Remember initially there were 100 shares of Cog.F2 then Garr posted 500 additional shares, but then people were like "wtf, no motion", so then he paused trading and raised a motion... i forget what eventually happened with it, I think before anything else happened after that, BTCT announced closure and the resulting mess just obscured the details.  There were  suddenly *way* more important things to worry about than how many COG.F2 shares were sold (the effort was to raise a second order from cointerra at the time, if I remember correctly...)

EDIT:  btct.co is still up for legacy data, according to: https://btct.co/security/COG.F2 and https://btct.co/security/COG.F and https://btct.co/security/COGNITIVE there are 100 outstanding shares of COG.F2, 100 outstanding shares of COG.F1, and 10420 shares of COGNITIVE.  This means if these numbers are accurate, 92.9% of all shares have been claimed, and the total after COG.F1 and COG.F2 make will be 14420, which means all the numbers I ran in the past are actually under-estimates because I was assuming 26k shares I think.

Using the current diff of 1790mil, assuming a total hashrate of 28.75TH/s, if we got the machines today, we would project:

1.0/(1.790*1000*1000*1000*(2**32)/(28.75*1000*1000*1000*1000)/(60*60*24))*(25) => 8.077532385980616 BTC/day

This, at 14420 shares and 50% going to the reinvestment fund, means a dividend of 0.00196 per week, not including whatever the scrypt miners get us.  After the next difficulty increase, assuming 30%, the calculation yields 0.00151 BTC/week per share.  If we assume 30% network growth every 2 weeks, this means we would make 0.0085BTC/share over the first 2 months.  Given that there is considerable support at a current share price of 0.06 - 0.08, which would imply a return of 10% in just 2 months, I think COG is a very good value at the current prices and prices as high as 0.12 could be supported.  Once the hardware is received and confirmed hashing, and the majority of the risk is dispelled, I wouldn't be surprised to see 0.2 or 0.25 - but of course, this is not investment advice, just me dicking around with numbers.

The current numbers of claimed shares on havelock are as follows:
9577 COG shares plus 96 COG.F1 plus 95 COG.F2, which would result in a total of 13397 claimed shares.

However, I am thought there were originally 10420 shares total on BTCT and 100 COG.F1 and 600 of COG.F2, which would yield 24,420 shares.  I might be misremembering because I thought I had calculated 26,420 as the total number of shares at some point (and I think that is what I used in all my calculations I posted in Nov/Dec).  It might be that not all of these shares were actually sold, however.  I can safely say the upper limit on shares is 26,420 and the lower limit is probably 14000, and the best guess is probably ~20,000.  Again, it'd be really nice of Garr could give us an official answer on that.

LMFAO. Are you planning to do a one-man show soon? I would like to see it.

We already invested in. Quitting right now, at that price and knowing that the hardware we've been waiting for months will be online in few days would be retarded.
Anyway no one is forced to invest anything. You do what you want, you're a grown up man.

There is no transparency nor accountability.

I am, quite frankly, stunned that people are still willing to invest money in this sham of a company.

 http://cointerra.com/engineering-updates-terraminer-iv-hashing-live ，cointerra is going to be topone。hope we can get the machine asap

Garret you had promised a financial report in December. Where is it?
What actions have you taken so far to increase transparency and accountability?
Shouldn't you take care of all this before your workload increases in 2 weeks?

Confirmed? Not the " two weeks ™ "?

Now that the delivery is confirmed, COGNITIVE shares are the best investment considering the price.
You easily double/triple your investment in two weeks. Even kakobrekla is buying.

gotta admit, Cognitive is now worth more since Activemining is not delivering and has nothing.

Just leaves Cointerra and KncMiner for the next quarter