Topic: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on[Havelock] - page 95. (Read 300686 times)

I am curious, why garr doesn't change the name of thread to simply COGNITIVE?

Share price has gone under 0.2 this week.
It does not make sense to issue shares at a "discount" at 5btc for 20 shares, while current share price is lower.
I believe it is in main interest of shareholders if Cognitive buys back shares up to 0.25, and use those treasury shares to fulfill CogF2 when it finishes.
This is better than creating extra shares for CogF2.

Furthermore I want to see a deadline with refund policy on the CogF2 hardware purchase, as there was one on CogF.

I'm not really pleased with the silence on Garr's end. And the website hasn't been updated for over a month.

I hope Garr can post an update with more details early this week.  Maybe the NDA will have lifted? Or, maybe he can at least tell us when the NDA will lift?  I suspect what people really want to see is evidence that the hardware cog is buying is actually a much better deal than is available to your average direct buyer, as well as other competing mining companies.

If our current hashrate is 750HG/s, our projected december hashrate is 10TH/s, and our project Q2 2014 hashrate is 1048TH/s, then:

Assuming COG.F1 converts to COG.F2 and both mature in December and the additional 600 contracts are sold and mature (they would only mature when we start receiving CT hardware) that means currently 800 contracts or 16000 additional shares

(using today's 24-avg of 0.192BTC/share)
Total hash rate | Total shares | GH/share | BTC/GH
750GH | 10420 | .0720 GH/share | 0.138BTC/GH
10TH | 26420 | 0.381GH/share | 0.5BTC/GH
1048TH | 26420 | 39.9GH/share | 0.0048BTC/GH

So today we have a share price indicating 0.138BTC/GH, but if our future plans pan out we can expect to have 0.38GH/share by December/January and buying today and holding until we have 1048TH would mean getting 0.0048BTC/GH, IMO this is a risky but high-reward investment (since there is the risk of CT plus the risk of network difficulty going crazy), but historically COG has been well-managed so I am not worried about risk from there.

If you instead use 0.25 as the share price (the share price when you buy COG.F2 at 5btc) you get 0.00626BTC/GH, still a very good deal.

WOW...
Then i'll sell my jupiter to you guys... 

750gh/s

You can do the math from there to figure out price per gh/s.

Hello...
I'm a newbie, so please excuse my stupid question...
What is the hashingpower right now?
...and how much are we paying pr g/h at todays share-price?

Did they really add ~200% to the total hash rate?

Here's a screenshot of the dashboard for one of the private pools we're operating on. The new BFL units fluctuate speed a bit, but it averages out to right where the expected hashrate should be.

Cheers,
Garrett

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/9542654/btc/Cognitive/BFLs.png

Great post theterabyte.

The waiting calculation is super straight forward.  Regardless of what the diff is at, the coins we earn is inversely proportional to the diff.

According to http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ the historical diff increase is:

Over the last 30 days: 125% (1.25 per month)
Over the last 60 days: 323% (1.8 per month)
Over the last 90 days: 457% (1.65 per month)

So the last 30 days have leveled off a bit, but last month it was crazy and it was pretty high even the month before that.

Presuming back-of-the-envelope 80% monthly growth (not unlikely due to cointerrra shitting a ton of hash power onto the network) we see:

First batch = 100 units
Second batch = 100 * (1/1.8 ) = 55 units

Using units to avoid talking about exactly how many coins, because it doesn't matter, we are making a comparison, the units are unimportant.

The lifetime sum of units made by the hardware for first batch are:

limit[x->0,inf] sum(100/(1.8**X)) => sum(100, 55.55, 30.86, 17.15, 9.53, 5.29, 2.94, 1.63, ...) which is approximately 225 units

The lifetime sum of units made by the same hardware starting one month later, with the same 80% monthly diff increase, is:

limit[x->1,inf] sum(100/(1.8**X)) => sum(55.55, 30.86, 17.15, 9.53, 5.29, 2.94, 1.63, ...) which is approximately 125 units

225 / 125 is exactly 1.8, of course, the very constant we used.  So, long story short, whatever the average difficulty increase is during that month, as long as the difficulty increase remains close to it in the future too, we can estimate waiting 1 month will cost us 1/(1+%) coins, or 55% for a difficulty increase of 80%

Diff increase during first month (assuming future difficulty increases are fairly consistent for at least some time):  % fewer coins gained during lifetime
95%: 49% fewer coins
80%: 45% fewer coins
65%: 39% fewer coins
55%: 35% fewer coins
45%: 31% fewer coins
30%: 23% fewer coins

In summary, if we get a 50% discount or more to wait, it is worth waiting, even if the difficulty *doubles* that month.  If we get a 20% discount or less, even the lowest difficulty increase we have seen in months would still make it worthwhile to pay the extra money (also, assuming our hardware makes enough coin to be profitable, which we hope will happen either way).  If it is somewhere in the middle, it comes down to what we expect the difficulty to be - and if CT delivers, I would bet it is going to be closer to the high side.

Thoughts?

EDIT: no sunglasses in my formulae!

Nope, we have the option to choose between the two, at different price points though. I'll be back with prices after my chat with CT this weekend.

And 50%+ approval is indeed what is required to pass a motion now.

Cheers,
Garrett

Does this mean we missed the first batch?  http://thegenesisblock.com/cointerra-and-hashfast-sell-17m-of-bitcoin-miners-open-second-batch-sales/

I seem to recall reading somewhere that something other than a strict majority is needed... am I smoking something?  What are the reqs for a motion to pass?

Cognitive hasn't made any orders from CT yet, just a few others in private mining operations I'm running. I agree with you though; the increase in difficulty in that one month might not be worth the wait for a less than significant discount.

The reason I say December/January is because there is the potential to get the same chips for less money by waiting a month. We will have to calculate whether this will be worth it when the time comes. To more precisely answer your question though: CoinTerra is serious about delivering on time. They have promised that if they are 30 days late in delivering products they will give purchasers an additional 20% of the hashpower they ordered. I'll be speaking with the CEO of CT this weekend. There is no definitive cutoff date; still have a little while to place the order.

--Garrett

Well that certainly sounds like an upgrade with less hassle. It sounds and looks (from the maths) CoinTerra is the way to go!

I'm not sure how Bitsyncom works, regarding order updates, but is it possible to login and look up previous orders? That way everyone knows the exact status of Avalon chips?

P.S. I wonder if splitting the Avalon refund motion from CogF contracts combining with CogF2 would make things more clear? I guess its a moot point at this time.

The CoinTerra chips will be hashing the same day they arrive, because they are handling the board production as well as the chips fabrication, whereas Avalon was selling just chips.

--Garrett

Since the maths are annoying and helpful, I will run them for people.

Assumptions:

1. The minimum diff increase will be 50% per month from now until december.  The expected diff increase will be 65% per month from now until december.  The high-end (hopefully worst-case) diff increase will be 85% per month from now until december.
2. Cointerra will deliver 10TH/s to cog, all at once, which will begin hashing in december.
3. These will take the form of 5 2TH/s units which each draw 1200W (what I used for my maths earlier)

regardless of 1 and 2, using only assumption 3 we can analyze power draw:
5units * 1.2kW * $0.02/(kW*h) = $0.12/h = $2.88 per day to run the hardware.  That's pretty good.

Using all three assumptions now:

current difficulty is looking to be about 110mil by Sept 15th.  December 15th is 3 months away, yielding our three difficulty numbers:

(110mil*(X**3)) where X is 1.5, 1.65, and 1.85=> 371mil, 494mil, 696mil

The expected time to find a block is

difficulty to find block * 2**32 / hash rate(per second) / (60s/m * 60m/h * 24h/day) = X days

If diff were 110 mil (so, today), 10TH/s would produce:

expected coins per week = 24hours / day * (7days/week)  * (diff * 2**32 * / (10 * 1000000000000) / (60*60)) * 25BTC/block => 320BTC/week

at diff 371mil, 94.9 BTC/week
at diff 494mil, 71.3 BTC/week
at diff 696mil, 50.6 BTC/week

So even at the most pessimistic network estimates, COG would be making 50BTC/week in december if cointerra comes through for us - which, at ~26000 shares (say COG.F1 and COG.F2 both mature) is a dividend of 0.0019 per share per week, or an annualized return of 0.10 BTC/year (31% of current price).  Of course, that's just on the 10TH/s. 

Finally, we can make one more assumption, which is that given the risk of BTC and mining, most mining companies adjust to a share price such that annualized returns are between 10 and 20%.  IF we assume that, it implies a target price of 0.5 BTC/share (yielding 20% annualized return) on this 10TH/s purchase alone (and future hashing may raise that).

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions going on here.  This math is all just for demonstrative purposes.  Each investor needs to carefully consider all the assumptions, and the ways those assumptions could be wrong, before investing.

I will be posting a notification for the motions along with the hardware arrival notifications tomorrow. Hopefully that makes it go through.