Yesterday citbank released a document in which it really claims the potential for bitcoin to explode in future, this could the first good report for bitcoin from a bank..
https://ir.citi.com/RZh%2B9GHcy3eQvegHG9vuU3r5%2FxkjXBMMfUnULRTyibawadNFQRrrFA%3D%3D
Apart from bitcoin they also mentioned reliable altcoins and included litecoin and dogecoin in their list..
Can someone here tell me whether dogecoin will also follow this logistic model of price growth,
because whene it comes to penetrability in the society, dogecoin is much more powerful than bitcoin
The reasons are
1.very cheap and hence a lot of people can mine and also buy.
2. infact the project was started by a marketing executive at adobe, so he was clever to put the meme of the year on a digital currency.
3. The dogecoin community is rapidly growing, dedicated and much more media hyped( seending bobsled team to olympics, building kenyan wells, Nascar race)
4.Dogecoin has actully given the crypto ecosystem a good outlook with all its inherent fun and charity..
with total supple of 100 billion, a 40,000 dollar bitcoin is relative to 1$ dogecoin,..
But will dogecoin also have this logistic price rise.
Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 14. (Read 123165 times)
In another thread i have posted an image from a chart that seems to indicate the tops of the current growth (it has only very briefly broke the line upwards, right before the flashcrash back)
So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.
For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.
So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.
For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.
A link to the thread where the image is posted please?
In another thread i have posted an image from a chart that seems to indicate the tops of the current growth (it has only very briefly broke the line upwards, right before the flashcrash back)
So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.
For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.
So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.
For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.
Interesting. I see the fibonacci fan lines tool on BitcoinWisdom but I have not used it.
Here is an explanation I found Fibonacci Fans
In another thread i have posted an image from a chart that seems to indicate the tops of the current growth (it has only very briefly broke the line upwards, right before the flashcrash back)
So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.
For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.
So far it has hit the line at least 10 times, I can't predict when or even if the line will be touched again, but it seems to indicate (at least for now) the points at which the price peaks.
For example if we have another small rally by the end of the day, the price should not go above $690. But if we have one by the 5th of June, the price would hit $700. And so on.
Quote
the existence of nonlinear super-exponential growth
... now ya's are getting to it ...
By nonlinear, super-exponential growth, the academic paper means that the growth rate of the asset bubble is itself growing, this is unsustainable and leads to the bubble peaking. We have seen this in each of the bitcoin bubbles and is very dramatic in the final week of such super-exponential growth. We may see prices, for example, double from $2700 to $5400 in a week or less, before collapsing back towards say $2700.
Quote
June 9, 2011 peak at $32 - doubling from $16 in 4 days.
April 10, 2013 peak at $260 - doubling from $130 in 7 days.
November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
Interesting indeed.
(4 * 2) -1 = 7
(7 * 2) -1 = 13
Quote
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
(13 * 2) -1 = 25
Quote
the existence of nonlinear super-exponential growth
... now ya's are getting to it ...
November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
This coincides with my thinking. I actually went bearish and sold at the Nov 18 peak last year, which was premature but excusable in light of the doubling principle. This time I will try to follow the Log10 delta more closely and also try to trade the volatility should that happen. I think now that 3000 is a realistic lower limit for any selling, and I don't intend to trade the uptrend from here on.
My earlier bold prediction (when we were at 420) was 650 by the end of June. Considering that we are only in the beginning of June and that level is already tested, I don't think it does any harm to the uptrend if we stay here for several more weeks. Breaching 500 in anything except a flashcrash would be worrying, but I regard the chances for that happening as low (20%).
Just make sure you guys keep us updated!
After studying the previous bubbles, I believe we will see nearly $1000 by the end of June.
November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
This coincides with my thinking. I actually went bearish and sold at the Nov 18 peak last year, which was premature but excusable in light of the doubling principle. This time I will try to follow the Log10 delta more closely and also try to trade the volatility should that happen. I think now that 3000 is a realistic lower limit for any selling, and I don't intend to trade the uptrend from here on.
My earlier bold prediction (when we were at 420) was 650 by the end of June. Considering that we are only in the beginning of June and that level is already tested, I don't think it does any harm to the uptrend if we stay here for several more weeks. Breaching 500 in anything except a flashcrash would be worrying, but I regard the chances for that happening as low (20%).
Just make sure you guys keep us updated!
November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
This coincides with my thinking. I actually went bearish and sold at the Nov 18 peak last year, which was premature but excusable in light of the doubling principle. This time I will try to follow the Log10 delta more closely and also try to trade the volatility should that happen. I think now that 3000 is a realistic lower limit for any selling, and I don't intend to trade the uptrend from here on.
My earlier bold prediction (when we were at 420) was 650 by the end of June. Considering that we are only in the beginning of June and that level is already tested, I don't think it does any harm to the uptrend if we stay here for several more weeks. Breaching 500 in anything except a flashcrash would be worrying, but I regard the chances for that happening as low (20%).
Tracking the 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - First Doubling
I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.
The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.
I will be watching for . . .
Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)
I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.
The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.
I will be watching for . . .
Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)
Those predictions would make this one hell of an exciting year! Do you have any good sources for the bubble peaking when doubling price is in 1 weeks time?
Looking at the price records for the three previous bubbles, we see . . .
June 9, 2011 peak at $32 - doubling from $16 in 4 days.
April 10, 2013 peak at $260 - doubling from $130 in 7 days.
November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
Tracking the 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - First Doubling
I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.
The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.
I will be watching for . . .
Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)
I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.
The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.
I will be watching for . . .
Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)
Those predictions would make this one hell of an exciting year! Do you have any good sources for the bubble peaking when doubling price is in 1 weeks time?
Tracking the 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - First Doubling
I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.
The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.
I will be watching for . . .
Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)
The academic research is Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles D Sornette, JV Andersen - International Journal of Modern Physics …, 2002
A significant quote from the highly cited paper . . .
I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.
The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.
I will be watching for . . .
Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)
The academic research is Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles D Sornette, JV Andersen - International Journal of Modern Physics …, 2002
A significant quote from the highly cited paper . . .
Quote
The feature that distinguishes it [the model] from ordinary bubble models is that the solutions may be at some times growing “super-exponentially,” i.e., with a growth rate growing itself with time. This is fundamentally different from previous bubble models based on exponential growth (with constant average growth rate). This suggests to qualify bubbles by testing for the existence of nonlinear super-exponential growth.
This is the my most favorite thread of this forum...wish the predictions here come true
Thanks!
The theme here is more observation than prediction. We can make a guess about the trend and figure out what the consequences are in advance, should our guess prove true.
This is the my most favorite thread of this forum...wish the predictions here come true
...you're the first person who took the time to tell me I might not be alone in my thinking.
Thank you for taking time to acknowledge that KeyJockey.
Thank you for taking time to acknowledge that KeyJockey.
Heh, no problem bro... but srsly I'm not tryin' to just butter anyone here, just tryin' to keep a level head and think clearly with accurate information about all of this stuff, which ain't easy sometimes with all the hype and freakouts and feints and good/bad info flying around out there, LOL
Anyway, in that spirit, I'd like to post a little update to my 10X numbers above.
Somebody over on coindesk named "Arthur" posted a comment on another story recently and took the time to look up the actual numbers for various dates:
>>> To be more exact, the picture is this:
>>>
>>> Jan. 2009 -> Jan. 2010: $0.00 -> $0.01
>>> Jan. 2010 -> Jan. 2011: $0.01 -> $0.30
>>> Jan. 2011 -> Jan. 2012: $0.30 -> $4.70
>>> Jan. 2012 -> Jan. 2013: $4.70 -> $13.25
>>> Jan. 2013 -> Jan. 2014: $13.50 -> $735.00
>>>
>>> It goes from 3 times to 55 times, roughly.
>>> So this year might end between $2,200 and $40,425.
>>> But technical analysis, for those who think that means
>>> something, tell us that the $2,500 - $10,000 zone is
>>> more likely than the $40.000 zone. And there are, so far,
>>> no reasons to believe that the old high of $1,200 will not
>>> be broken this year.
...all of which is still a-okay for me, still fits reasonably well enough into THIS thread's premise.
10K this year? No problem. Nobody expects $40K this year.
That's the NEXT cycle iteration range, and just a little more time maybe needed for that (year or two following).
Anyway, even if there are not 3X more iterations left to go and maybe only ONE more, it's still a damn good ROI, right?
Where else in today's world do you have any possibility at all of getting ten times return on your money (for risk of maybe 1x loss)...? The stupid banks are not paying anything (fraction of a percent? LOL) and while the stock market might still continue it's fake rise a bit longer, srsly doubt it can go on to hit another 10X increment...
Well of course the level will start to drop off.
BTC probably can't go to zero any more, IMHO, since there's clearly a very solid "transaction utility" to the system as it works (very well!) today, and as many bitcoin evangelists often say, "The Blockchain Cannot Be Uninvented".
But transaction utility alone might be sustained even at current (or much lower) BTC prices... putting the kibosh on this $1M BTC idea?
Thoughts?
But transaction utility alone might be sustained even at current (or much lower) BTC prices... putting the kibosh on this $1M BTC idea?
Thoughts?
What makes bitcoin valuable is not the "transaction utility" but the synergy of "transaction utility" and "solid storage of value utility".
Bitcoin is absolutely great for both functions.
If more people and entities recognise this fact, the price can only rise.
Yes transaction utility could be met at the current price, but not the storage of value utility.
People have a need to transact, but they have a need to hold their wealth as well. Many people want or will want to diversify their holdings away from paper holdings such as fiat accounts, treasuries and stocks. This is especially the case at a time when the valuation of paper holdings is at an all time high relative to their fundamentals. And at a time when governments are passing laws to have the right to seize private funds to cover their liabilities to society.
When I saw that article hit Reddit and various news sites I posted replies, tweets, blog posts and you're the first person who took the time to tell me I might not be alone in my thinking. Thank you for taking time to acknowledge that KeyJockey.
I've got 6 people hooked on bitcoin. Three are family and three co-workers. I heard about bitcoin soon after it was released and I said no to the concept of mining because I thought that it meant I had the 'dark-web' on my computer. It took me a while to get past that concern yet I believe there are still a majority of future users who are still in that 'you first and I'll see how it's working out' stage. Three cheers for early adopters!
I've got 6 people hooked on bitcoin. Three are family and three co-workers. I heard about bitcoin soon after it was released and I said no to the concept of mining because I thought that it meant I had the 'dark-web' on my computer. It took me a while to get past that concern yet I believe there are still a majority of future users who are still in that 'you first and I'll see how it's working out' stage. Three cheers for early adopters!
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