Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 12. (Read 123218 times)
lets hope "history repeats itself" holds true.
Hopefully, bitcoin's performance will change the term "bubble" from a bad thing to a good thing!
Or at the very least, the term "bitcoin bubble" will mean a really wonderful thing!
Or at the very least, the term "bitcoin bubble" will mean a really wonderful thing!
The unsustainable super-exponential growth that characterized the three great bitcoin price bubbles is very much like the other academically studied asset bubbles. It is true however that the two bubbles of 2013 collapsed to a price very much higher than the starting bubble price.
I, like other occasional traders, love bitcoin bubbles.
Hopefully, bitcoin's performance will change the term "bubble" from a bad thing to a good thing!
Or at the very least, the term "bitcoin bubble" will mean a really wonderful thing!
Or at the very least, the term "bitcoin bubble" will mean a really wonderful thing!
Bubble is not the correct terminology to be using for these upswings since the lows have never gone below the previous cycle high, yet.
They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.
They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.
You're technically correct of course, but the term bubble became pretty entrenched in our little group's sociolect, so it is well defined and means the right thing in this context one could argue.
I personally like to refer to it as "bubble cycles" to make clear that they are not bubbles in the conventional markets' sense, but that it's a repeating pattern.
Don't remember who posted about this ~6 months to a year ago, but he suggested to refer to it as "growth spurts". I liked that term/metaphor, but it never caught on, so "bubbles" it is for now.
I once wrote a post about this proposing the term "growth spurt". It was positively received but somehow the term didn't stick. I still use that term though.
Bubble is not the correct terminology to be using for these upswings since the lows have never gone below the previous cycle high, yet.
They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.
They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.
You're technically correct of course, but the term bubble became pretty entrenched in our little group's sociolect, so it is well defined and means the right thing in this context one could argue.
I personally like to refer to it as "bubble cycles" to make clear that they are not bubbles in the conventional markets' sense, but that it's a repeating pattern.
Don't remember who posted about this ~6 months to a year ago, but he suggested to refer to it as "growth spurts". I liked that term/metaphor, but it never caught on, so "bubbles" it is for now.
approximately in the next 40 days we will be sure if this july bubble prediction is a good observation or not
Looking at this graph, https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6972726, there is only one super bubble or super wave. The one that has a peak of 1.7. The other peaks are "normal" bubbles or overshoots of the trend line.
Bang on @ you and marcus_of_augustus we're at an all time low, and who knows the trend line may go in cycles and we could be headed for an mega super hype cycle wave. ( or about to break the trend)
I've read a lot over the last year, but missed the idea of a super bubble. Got a link?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6972726There are 3 super bubbles above the trend line, and by my count 7 (bubbles) peeks followed by my interpretation, a crash, bringing the total to 7. One for every order of magnitude in growth, overlooking the one repeat during the down trend following the overshoot in June 2011.
Start with the OP this thread is a fun read.
Looking at this graph, https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6972726, there is only one super bubble or super wave. The one that has a peak of 1.7. The other peaks are "normal" bubbles or overshoots of the trend line.
Bubble is not the correct terminology to be using for these upswings since the lows have never gone below the previous cycle high, yet.
They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.
They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.
I've read a lot over the last year, but missed the idea of a super bubble. Got a link?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6972726There are 3 super bubbles above the trend line, and by my count 7 (bubbles) peeks followed by my interpretation, a crash, bringing the total to 7. One for every order of magnitude in growth, overlooking the one repeat during the down trend following the overshoot in June 2011.
Start with the OP this thread is a fun read.
I've read a lot over the last year, but missed the idea of a super bubble. Got a link?
So is anyone buying and selling based on this logarithmic action? It seems like it could be a good indicator. If the price is x% higher than the curve, maybe it's a wise time to sell and buy in when it drops to x% under the curve.
The problem with following the approach of buying and selling based on this logarithmic action is that one will miss out on the big super bubble when it occurs. If the approach is buying and holding until the peak of a super bubble then success is much more likely. What I plan to do is hold until bitcoin price difference is around 1.7 or 50x of the trend, then one is pretty sure it is the peak of a super bubble. All the peaks before the super bubble peak are not good times to sell. However, All large troughs before the super bubble peak are good times to buy.
So is anyone buying and selling based on this logarithmic action? It seems like it could be a good indicator. If the price is x% higher than the curve, maybe it's a wise time to sell and buy in when it drops to x% under the curve.
Yes, I have been buying fractional bitcoin every workday since March at my local Bitcoin ATM because the Log10 difference from trend has been largely negative. The current price is $585, and the expected price according to the average trend is $1,624. Supposing the bubble peaks in July, then I expect a selling target price of $4000-$5000, and higher if the bubble is postponed.
So is anyone buying and selling based on this logarithmic action? It seems like it could be a good indicator. If the price is x% higher than the curve, maybe it's a wise time to sell and buy in when it drops to x% under the curve.
But 1 was higher than 3 (not in the first one) and the consolidation was longer and less volatile.
Here is a great comparison and prediction set of charts from reddit user lowstrife. The numeric labels are Elliott Wave counts. Heiken Ashi is a candle stick chart variation. What I get from these charts is a sense for a sideways price consolidation - the flat - which occurs before the super-exponential portion of the bubble. The blue bars in the June 2014 chart are a projection of what lowstrife believes is a bubble peak in late July . . .
I am not sure that the "recovery" phase is quite done yet. I think that we will push up to $800 or so and hang out there for a bit before the spike in July. Just my thoughts.
Well, if you look at the previous bubble, points 3 and 7 are at approximately the same amount, which looks like where we are now.
What a great summer we'll have!
Thanks Stephen, for making this thread and on-going event. This could turn into an "epic adventure" type of topic.
When patterns get "too predictable" markets tend to throw in some amazing surprises.
I expect/predict we will eventually have another huge rally, but this years chart (or the next) will have much different ripples in the "waves".
Here is a great comparison and prediction set of charts from reddit user lowstrife. The numeric labels are Elliott Wave counts. Heiken Ashi is a candle stick chart variation. What I get from these charts is a sense for a sideways price consolidation - the flat - which occurs before the super-exponential portion of the bubble. The blue bars in the June 2014 chart are a projection of what lowstrife believes is a bubble peak in late July . . .
When patterns get "too predictable" markets tend to throw in some amazing surprises.
I expect/predict we will eventually have another huge rally, but this years chart (or the next) will have much different ripples in the "waves".
I think it is worth noting that the "recovery" phase in June 2014 is the most smooth -- with the implicit assumption that this may show the "confidence" of buyers. In the previous two recovery phases, there's a significant amount of buyer "hesitation" if you will, indicating more anxiety about losing money, and therefore more "choppiness" in the line move up. However, the larger picture is that the buying pressure has consistently been stronger in all three recovery phases. I might explain that the obvious lack of "anxiety" in the buyers in this current phase may reflect the stronger position Bitcoin is currently in than ever in the past -- i.e., all of the ever increasingly more positive news regarding the adoption of Bitcoin by ever larger companies, continuing exponential growth of bitcoin wallet numbers, etc. and increasingly more supportive political/governmental environment for Bitcoin in the US. In other words, ever increasing fundamentals are supporting the price of Bitcoin more so now than ever, with the assumption that this fundamental trend will continue exponentially. Just my humble opinion.
I commend your line of reasoning regarding the increasing fundamentals. According to Peter_R's interpretation of Metcalf's Law that says bitcoin prices have a relationship to square of the number of users, addresses and quantity of transactions. The site Bitcoin Pulse has an excellent set of fundamental adoption data series. For prices to increase as they have in the past, 10x annual price growth is supported by 3.2x growth in the adoption fundamentals.
My own CPoS project has as one of its benefits, low transaction fees and capacity for many more micro transactions than Satoshi's Bitcoin.
I know I'm getting ahead of myself here, but the NEXT bubble after the July one should take us into the $25,000 area sometime in March/April 2015.
The Bitcoin ETF's should be live by then. That would fuel the 2015 bubble. If there is a single bubble this year, then perhaps 2015 will be similar to 2013 and have two bubbles.
two bubbles can take us to 25000
I do think this as well (25000 as a top, of course).
Besides the EFT I guess eBay will probably be in by then.
I imagine that this could be the start of the next bull run, if they integrate bitcoin on paypal...
I think it is worth noting that the "recovery" phase in June 2014 is the most smooth -- with the implicit assumption that this may show the "confidence" of buyers. In the previous two recovery phases, there's a significant amount of buyer "hesitation" if you will, indicating more anxiety about losing money, and therefore more "choppiness" in the line move up. However, the larger picture is that the buying pressure has consistently been stronger in all three recovery phases. I might explain that the obvious lack of "anxiety" in the buyers in this current phase may reflect the stronger position Bitcoin is currently in than ever in the past -- i.e., all of the ever increasingly more positive news regarding the adoption of Bitcoin by ever larger companies, continuing exponential growth of bitcoin wallet numbers, etc. and increasingly more supportive political/governmental environment for Bitcoin in the US. In other words, ever increasing fundamentals are supporting the price of Bitcoin more so now than ever, with the assumption that this fundamental trend will continue exponentially. Just my humble opinion.
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