Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 13. (Read 123218 times)

RPietila, first of all I wanna say many thanks for your input here... really appreciate all the work you do for all our benefit!

Second, I don't wanna derail the thread from latest posts & analysis about upcoming spike/bubble (really important work!) but just curious if, in the above comment, you've considered the MaidSafe project?

Would it qualify as deserving, in your analysis, being not exactly only an alt-coin but rather just having it's own alt-coin as part of the overall "decentralized Internet" idea that those guys are working on, by itself?  Or despite that, does it still fall short IYHO?

Just curious 'cuz I myself have only ever put any money into just MaidSafe, besides putting everything I can afford/manage into only simply BITCOIN.  I invested exactly ONE BTC into MaidSafe, so it's not that big a deal (LOL, if it fails? no biggie) but for what it's worth I put in that single bitcoin just because I like the idea of what those guys are trying to do...!  But, I dunno, maybe that's a mistake?

Your opinion?  (And, again, feel free to ignore this, if it's gonna derail from thread's focus last day or two on upcoming price action!)

I actually was assuming ~$800 too for the consolidation phase. Bitcoin's price is a bit hard to predict though

I agree with you on this one, we need to get at least to the 750-ish range.
If you look at the charts posted you see the first bubble's top is equal to the sideway's motion,
The second one is roughly at 3/4 of the bubble top, we are barley half way to the top of the last bubble.

The concept is elusive. Today, you can purchase 10 smartphones for the price of one phone call to your lawyer. Smartphones aggregate functionalities that did not all even exist 20 years ago. The producible stuff is getting smaller, cheaper and more capable, fulfilling the promise of ephemeralization.

On the other hand, assets that are scarce, like real estate in prime places, or gold, are holding quite well. Even if we transpass the cost of energy and gold becomes easy to produce, RE will still hold its value.

As for human service, some say that it cannot be bought with money at all in the future if we enter into general abundance. I don't believe this, however. Even though I myself don't generally work, or sell my services for money, I am still inclined to do this if someone presents a good offer since the price offered is the concrete proof of the value of my time, and doing something which is highly valued makes me feel good. In this way the monetary incentive does raise my welfare, but it happens directly via the feeling good of being valued, not indirectly via the things money can buy (since the compensation does not increase that at all; I have for long been able to buy all that I need).

I've been following this thread for some time and think its wonderful work.

However, in my opinion atleast, the $1 million maximum price is too conservative.
Based on the assumption of Bitcoin supplanting all government currencies alone, which on last check M2 was ~$60 trillion would imply a BTC price of about $3 million each.

Now, where it really gets interesting is if you start to factor in that monetary inflation has been pretty out of whack since the late 90s (or arguably since 1971 after the world went off the gold standard), fuelling the Dot Com/Housing bubbles and more importantly, altering people's saving/investment behaviour. Almost any productive individual today (below 50) has lived their entire lives watching prices of almost everything around them go up consistently, whether it be groceries, houses, stock market, PMs. Even though the majority may not understand the nature of inflation or what causes it, they do understand that saving money in the bank is inferior to "investing" in other asset classes. "Investing" because most of them do not actually invest based on fundamentals but buy the said assets simply because they have shown to reliably appreciate year after year in nominal terms. Many of these "investors" think they are making good investments when they watch their nominal portfolios rise when infact all they have discovered is an asset to hedge against inflation.

Before 2008, the majority of people who were risk adverse may have been content with keeping money in the bank and losing 3-5% in inflation year after year in return for less risk. However after the Lehman collapse and the onslaught of QE/money printing around the world, monetary inflation rates have exploded and asset classes like equities, bonds(it would appear only CBs are buying this) and real estate have kept up with the money printing. It could be argued that since 2008, fiat has been reduced to merely a transactional and immediate liquidity needs type of asset for more people than ever before. Real Estate(see China ghost cities), equities and PMs have now taken over the additional role of long term store of value and are therefore vulnerable.

Vulnerable to Bitcoin, which with its dual properties of being an excellent transactional currency and store of value.
Consider the following:

Global M2  ~$60 trillion
Offshore wealth   ~$30 trillion
Speculative Real Estate  ~$30 trillion??
PMs ~$8 trillion

There are valid arguments to be made that Bitcoin could draw capital from all of them to a significant degree. If we assume that Bitcoin replaces all fiat and subsumes 50% of the other assets, we are looking at a maximum valuation of $4 million to $5 million in today's dollars.

two bubbles can take us to 25000

The Bitcoin ETF's should be live by then. That would fuel the 2015 bubble. If there is a single bubble this year, then perhaps 2015 will be similar to 2013 and have two bubbles.

Thanks for sharing the charts Stephen. Been seeing these around. Nice to have them all in one place.

They ring true to me, and I think we are about where we need to be for the base. In past bubbles the basing calm happened at about 50% of the bubble peak (very rough) and I think we are just about there. I suspect the steady phase is upon us...with some fluctuation up and down for the next couple of weeks.

I am not sure that the "recovery" phase is quite done yet.  I think that we will push up to $800 or so and hang out there for a bit before the spike in July.  Just my thoughts.

Here is a great comparison and prediction set of charts from reddit user lowstrife. The numeric labels are Elliott Wave counts. Heiken Ashi is a candle stick chart variation. What I get from these charts is a sense for a sideways price consolidation - the flat - which occurs before the super-exponential portion of the bubble. The blue bars in the June 2014 chart are a projection of what lowstrife believes is a bubble peak in late July . . .

Summer 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - moral_agent's BubbleWatch from reddit

In the Daily Discussion thread on Reddit BitcoinMarkes, moral_agent posts an album of charts titled Bubble-watch. Here is the explanation.

Here is my favorite chart from his series, that scales the previous bubbles and aligns them by troughs. If the next bubble is indeed very similar in shape to the preceding two bubbles, then we could expect the Summer 2014 Bubble to peak in late July.



 

I have to second this opinion. Had same in mind saying ''Few years".

I guess prior 2012 the market itself wasn't global and mature enough to be as stable as it is now.

The price deviated a lot more from the trendline prior to 2012, because trading was all over the place back then.

Until the future proves otherwise we can assume the log10 delta from trend has a period of 8 months and an amplitude of 0.4 (maybe 0.45) log base 10 units.

Thanks! I figured but remember risto saying it was 5.x way back

This was the Bearish movement reversal point.
And trend's biggest  negative delta value ( price difference from the trendline) calculated within few years.

Someone on here made a nice simple website that calculated this model anyone still have a link?
I have tried searching but nothing came up.
I know you can do the same with the spreadsheet but the doc is kind of lagging.


@Slippery why did you mark 19th may in red?

Seeing as how each doubling to peak has taken x*2-1 days (where x is the previous bubble's # of days for price to double to peak), do you think it is possible that the next doubling to peak might take roughly 13*2-1 or 25 days to occur?

How much %, of those 100% Nxt premined coins, would equal enough utility and critical mass, to be called a successful premine?

correct, here's an update:



Note that the support is from the fan with the higher slope (the more recent fan). This could indicate that at some point (possibly the point where the two fans collide) the support will overtake the resistance, which would indicate a massive breakout to the upside. That, or it might turn more bearish, which i consider pretty unlikely at this point. I can't see it clearly on the charts, but i'd say they would collide somewhere around July 20th or so. Somewhere around the $1600 mark is where they cross. I'll update once i can see it more clearly. (it's nearly impossible to view upwards in the bitcoinwisdom charts, this makes extrapolating lines a bit hard)

In my analysis, no.

Dogecoin is failing in its coin emission schedule making it prone to 51% attack. That can be repaired by making it ever-inflationary though. But the network effects favor that there can only be one all-purpose crypto, and clearly that is Bitcoin, and this is evident from the constant price erosion of DOGE - the holders are slowly returning to BTC.

I have found only one coin except BTC, which has a good enough potential to even be around in 3 years, to warrant an investment. And that one is Monero, MRO.

Second generation coins like NXT, fail very big time in that all the coins are premined. I can never believe that 100% fiat "coins" could ever become voluntarily used. And I have 1000 years of monetary history behind me showing that at times people have rather died than used the state-mandated fiat. Good luck trying it without having the monopoly of coercion behind you!