Topic: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! - page 3. (Read 7279 times)

Only good thing about recent action is that I can at least say my aim wasnt completely off, BTC does have this habit of returning to mean.  Its passed through my guess and recovered back up some and might continue to do so, the probability of it rolling right upto my doorstep on the precise day for this thread is low but I was in the rough region anyhow :p   45603 is a Fib level I have drawn in and though we traded lower it was brief only and think this level is the point to watch.   I doubt I have drawn the graph exactly but the 50 week average is slow enough to be predictable in this area at this time.

Speaking of which, this is the one year anniversary of gentlemand's vacation.

#Holders Unaffected

yes...it makes sense, and surely each of our situations are going to be different, so we have to be careful to NOT be engaging in too much gambling with our cashflow - especially if we have the income coming in through BTC... and there may well be some need to convert regularly, but then if you (which is any of us) end up in a place where we anticipated a downturn of Z amount but it ends up being a draw down of Z x2 or x3 or some way greater amount and then it ends up being draw down that we anticipate to last 6 months and it ends up lasting 2 years, we might really screw ourselves up...so in some sense we have to attempt to be overly conservative.. and to prepare for worse cases than we even expect to happen...

I know that these things can well be way easier said than done, and even I have been caught with less cash than I needed and having to sell some BTC at times that were not completely of my own choosing.. just to cover some expenses that I had known to be coming but they ended up being more than expected, came all at once and came right when the BTC price crashed nearly 2x lower than expected.. referring to the November 2018 crash from $6k to $3k.

When I was 18 years old, I could project my cashflow 6 months in advance, and that would tend to be ok.. because my finances were not very complicated, but the more complicated my cashflow became, the more that I had to attempt to project ahead and for sure the cashflow of the shorter term periods of 1-3 months were more immediate than the further out cashflow projections that can be more loosey goosey...   In recent times, I have tended to project my cashflows 2 years in advance with the most immediate cashflow projections or 1-3 months more strict and the further out more general, and frequently I can see if I spend some extra money now, there can be significant and meaningful ramifications on my cashflow 6 months or more in advance.

I supposed that what I am suggesting is that each of us likely have to keep more value in cash than we would have wanted to in order to make sure that we are prepared for extreme situations.. and yes, that can kind of suck because many of us are going to feel that our cash might NOT be working for us.. but if we try to keep too much value in bitcoin, we could really end up screwing ourselves out of bitcoin if we end up going through BTC overshoots in terms of price and time that go way beyond our expectations and we have failed/refused to adequately prepare... so yeah, even shaving off 1-3%  extra of your BTC stash could be painful when done at an inopportune time (but shaving off 10% or 20% or more could be quite devastating due to lack of adequate preparations because maybe we got too greedy in our trying to keep our BTC/money working but we end up being way overly allocated.. and not very realistic).


I doubt that any of us who have been in bitcoin for a while are underestimating bitcoin's volatility... so your desire to project some kind of a gotcha or "I am smarter than anyone else because I knew what was going to happen" blah blah blah.. seems a bit much.. but hey.. you do you... For sure, you are not the only person who likes to do those kinds of things.


Of course, the more of a BTC stash that you have created, the more that you can have various flexibilities, and sometimes it will be pretty clear that there is a goal to keep stacking sats because the stash is not large enough and for sure, earlier in time does cause some abilities to say that it is not likely that we will be moving back to those prices... so in 2018/2019 BTC prices bounced around between $3k and $20k but spent quite a bit of time below $10k.. so there surely can be some confidence that it is NOT too likely that any of us is goin got be able to acquire BTC for those kinds of low prices anymore.. it's not 100% sure, but there still can be quite a bit of confidence.. including using the 104-week (2 years) or the 208-week (4 years) moving average to attempt to figure out the most extreme of lows that might happen and may well not be sustainable if reached and for those are $28k and $18k for the 104-week moving average and the 208-week moving average respectively.

The price has fallen to ~47k with a low of ~$41k. There is one more day in which traditional financial markets are open.

I would say it is most likely that the price will end somewhere in the range of $34.8k to $54.05k (+- 15% from the local low and current price).

The point I was trying to make is that it is unusual to see 90% drops or 10x rises in the price and that a more common upper bound expectation for medium-term price movements would be a factor of 5 (that is an 80% drop of 5x increase).

Have you forgotten what the guys in the other thread told you? Your streak of failures has already ended, since it cannot be that the same thing lasts 5 months in a row. Therefore, you need to either go to the casino on December 21, or cross your fingers and look with big eyes at the vertical green candle.

Definitely ... and although I woke up today with bated breath, I do not exclude that today's collapse will be followed by another one.

So you're saying I can still win?

Well, at least the last days of the "Summer dip" are exciting.

I saw much higher numbers:
So it's just people speculating on exchanges that caused all this? I'm okay with that Mempool isn't even full, which tells me not too many people are panic-depositing to sell their HOLDings.

^
Well PlanB's expected $10,000 daily candle goes a way to that 30% pull back.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1456581634497581059?t=IASsB520G6UJLTXfdlNPaw&s=19

It was said there were way to many leveraged long trades in the market and they would
have to be liquidated before the market would rise. Bit of a domino effect last night
with a lot of liquidation, $1.2billion.

I wonder if the runway is clear for takeoff now?

I’m merely emphasizing that we shouldn’t underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility, especially after your reaction when I posted that a mini-crash of 30% was still very possible.


I’m a pleb. I buy the DIP with what I have, which is not much after expenses, and I need to keep some fiat in my bank account. But majority of my savings buys were made during 2018 and 2019.

Yep. And then there are some guys I'm sure (I would like to say I'm one of those) not earning income in fiat -- the balance feels even harder to strike.

Feels nice to be sending out invoices and getting paid when price is down, but since still need to sell to pay those damn bills, the temptation for me is to try and sell even less than I need to, to try and hold on as much as possible to the bonus BTC, and see how long more I can delay the bills -- but if price goes down even more, then I'm forced to sell even more when deadlines are up, losing out on the bargain BTC.

(I hope that makes sense).

Gloating is not becoming of a gentleman wannabe.

Oh wait.

Regarding your retest of $35k proposition, hopefully you are not failing or refusing to buy or disinclined to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP based on such a seeming hope that may or may not happen.

I am not sure if I need to repeat that one of the BIGGEST errors in respect to bitcoin is failure/refusal to adequately and sufficiently prepare for UP.. so you can do all you like to prepare, hope or even wait for down, and if you get too greedy then you may well be in a much worse position than to just buy on a regular basis or to buy on the dip that you have in front of you rather than waiting for more dip.

Another thing is still having some fiat available.. just in case there is more down. I am not against attempting to prepare for down.. because surely many of us feel better to be able to buy some BTC on the way down rather than running out of money.. so surely there is that angle that exists as well... a kind of balancing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP while at the same time maintaining some kind of a system to buy on dips on the way down while not running out of money.. not an easy thing to strike such balance and seems to not be very good thing to make fun of people who may have already run out of money to pick up some more BTC (surely there are some of those guys in existence as well).

I told you, ser. We should never underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility. We saw it during April, and I believe another retest back to $35,000 is currently possible, or is that just in “the realm of extreme possibilites”?

Plus who crashed the market, and should we prepare for jeers from proudhon and sgbett again? Hahaha!

If I do not win at 70k or even 69420 I hope mikeywith wins.
238. $54,666 mikeywith

I believe Lafu, Kylapoiss, and Altryist. I hope it’s not Icygreen or STT, but a mini-crash from $60,000 to $45,000 is never extremely hard to see if you ask me. Especially after April crash, which was just somewhere in the middle of the bull cycle.

It is exciting as my 70k is at least still possible.

You ran a fun game with a very generous prize. Thanks again.

Few days left

Watching closely

yeah you could be correct.  I am thinking under 50 is less likely than over 60 but the 50-60 range may hold the winner.

The more the adoption the less the volatility, you are perfectly accurate about this.

The support is still at a price above $50000, the last time I checked, bitcoin price plummeted to $53700. $60000 resistance is also very strong.  My prediction may not be accurate as no one is even accurate if to predict the price of bitcoin in just short term, I am predicting the winner will be within $50000 to $ 60000 price range.

dec 7 is coming who will be the winner. we are at 56430 right now.

I'm always bullish on bitcoin but the part I can't agree with is the number of times it goes red. After multiple tries it always breaks out, and it has already tried it enough times.

Besides the other issue I see with your speculation is the timeframe. You are saying that about 60% rise in 5 months would lead to a "hard crash" whereas in reality such rises are considered small and very slow. For comparison in the past 5 months price has gone up 146% and that too was slow. It also didn't end up with "hard crash" it just had a 23% correction (I don't consider anything below 30% a crash).

I completely agree.
But this is one of those rules that doesn't necessarily have a correct opposite. Meaning price doesn't necessarily have to crash if $100k was reached much quicker.

I believe that the cycle is still happening, although I wish it didn't. But I don't think it should be the exact copy of the previous cycles. There is a lot of factors that affects the market and can increase or decrease the length or the size of the final bubble. For now we are only 12 days longer the previous cycle (from 2015-01-14 to 2017-12-17 is 1069 days and 2018-12-15 + 1069 is 2021-12-18) which is not a lot but a lot smaller in size ($152 to $19666 vs $3100 to $69000 which is 13000% vs 2100%).

I also believe that at some point this trend will be broken and we stop seeing this kind of long bull-bubble-bear trinity and instead see longer but slower bull markets with small quick corrections instead of a huge -80% crashes that lasts a year.

I don't know if this year marked the last cycle or not but 10% rise a month with a lot of small corrections for the next 6 months to reach $100k (as you suggested) would be a good indication of it. The fact that we are still 10900% behind than previous cycle could be another indication.

You are correct to the extent that you might be suggesting that bitcoin is not likely to be too much on any kind of exact schedule... but it also seems that pooya87 criticism of your assessment of the model is quite on point regarding that you seem to be ignoring what is in the actual chart and asserting what you believe to be plausible in that BTC prices frequently get stuck at various points of the yellow.. and sure that seems to be true, except when it is not... which is shown in the chart to have had at least happened twice in the past 8 years and  in 4-year increments - which is also implying that we are in such a four-year place once again in which we could have a blow off top again.. which again causes BTC prices to go into the red again.

Of course, any of us should be able to agree with you that we are not guaranteed to experience any kind of blow off top merely because it happened in 4-year increments in the past, but your presuming that it is not going to happen.. just because and then listing some opinions of yours that the 4-year cycles are over blah blah blah.. seems to be just proclaiming that you believe that from here on out there are going to be limits in UPpity (even though bitcoin has not been too good at following such limitations historically.. but sure.. this time is different.. this time is different).  And, even your assertion that the red area becomes less likely when it is delayed in happening comes off as a bit of a made-up wish.. that stretches logic or even bitcoin's own historical patterns.. merely because you proclaim such limits.

Again, I am not asserting that going into the red is anywhere guaranteed, but there is also a BTC price dynamic that likely exists out there between the waring sides.  Historically, it seems that we have tended to experience blow-off tops in bitcoin
 because it seems to be that the bearwhales are constantly trying to keep BTC prices down as low as they can and for as long as they can, and at some point they can no longer keep king daddy down, so whether that will result in BTC prices going into the red is still to be seen.. whether our top is already in at $69k or whether we get something sub-$100k, something between $100k and $400k or something supra $400k is also to be seen.  

If you look at my assignment of probabilities (including in this posts, and links too), I am not assigning really high probabilities to supra $200k scenarios (something like 30%), but I am also NOT going to act like those supra $200k scenarios are nearly off limits or that down scenarios have overly high likelihoods when they don't seem to.. and even I am assigning higher than 50% odds that our top is no greater than $100k, yet one of your errors (if it is only one?) seems to be that you are giving hardly any odds to supra $100k scenarios... and you have pretty decently high focuses on Down.. (prepared for down, no?) so hopefully you (and some other DOWNity scenario prognosticators/believers/wisheners) are not failing/refusing to adequately and/or sufficiently prepare for UP in the event that some of those less likely UP scenarios end up happening.. just like those less likely scenarios ended up happening in 2013, in 2017, and surely a variety of other times in bitcoin's history.  

We have witnessed a lot of either overly prepared for down and/or insufficiently prepared for UP peeps in bitcoin's history.. and sure some of you (or those peeps) are going to continue to make such mistakes.. and in this time around there seems to be some benefits to be prepared for outrageous including something as high as $1.5million in this cycle.. so yeah, even though I place only about a .5% chance of such $1.5 million scenario happening, it still feels like the right thing, the prudent thing, the practical thing, to do to be prepared.. just in case.  

Is this the right time to gloat? or not yet?  with the HFSP mantra?      By the way..... I am not even asserting that folks should not be prepared for down as well.. as long as they are also prepared for UP, including some of the outrageous UP scenarios (that may well not happen).