Topic: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! - page 4. (Read 7079 times)

You must be so bullish that you didn't notice that we often crash from yellow than actually go red  .




But you are not wrong, of course, there is always a chance we go to the red zone after touching the yellow, but the point i was trying to make is that the longer we take to get to 100k the more likely we can sustain those prices, if we go to 100k in in June of 2022, we will still be in the green, far from the heat, if we do that earlier, then we enter a danger zone, and there is no guarantee that entering yellow takes us to red,

This also has to do with wether you really think the 4 year cycle is still a thing or not, also anyone who thinks the length of this cycle has to follow the previous one should already be aware that we are already taking longer than all previous cycles, which means the 69k was actually the top of the cycle as far as "length is concerned"

The way I see is that each cycles takes a lot longer to top than the previous one, if we take the last cycle length into account we have actually just passed it ( a few days ago), which means road to the end of the cycle is still pretty much a long one, so I don't agree with " we at the end of the trend and need that bubble", I think we still need AT LEAST 6-8 months to end this cycle, so when we get to that yellow area again, chances are we get a another correction rather than a follow through.


Sorry to tell you that the chart dimensions are a bit off in the image, the top of the red only comes at 400k in around mid June 2022, I would still take the top of this channel with a grain of salt tho, this model will have to break at one point the small number of data points in it, but hey BTC does what BTC does, you may never know.

If you look at the prior halvings and the price performance post the halving you get:

First halving:  Nov 2012
Price at halving: $12.00
Subsequent High: Nov 2013
Price at high: $1,242 (this is a 103x increase over the price at the halving)
Time from halving to high: 12 months

Second Halving: July 2016
Price at halving: $652.00
Subsequent High: Dec 2017
Price at high: $19,700 (this is a 30x increase and is approximately 1/3 the relative increase seen at the first halving)
Time from halving to high: 17 months (this is approximately 1.4x as long as after the first halving)

Third halving: May 2020
Price at halving: $8,740

Projecting forward, and using the 1/3 the previous increase and 1.4x the time taken we get:

Forecast high: $77,000 (an 8x increase, i.e. one-third of the relative increase after the second halving)
Date of high: May 2022 (24 months after the halving, or 1.4x the time taken after the second halving)

We can see (from just two data points of course) that it is taking longer to get from the halving to the subsequent high, and the relative price increase is reducing. I think this is logical given that the relative impact of each halving is smaller than the prior ones (as a greater proportion of the total supply has already been mined at each halving).

Overlaying this onto mikeywith's chart we get:



Red vertical lines are halving dates; green vertical lines are subsequent highs.  Blue text and lines are "speculative forecasts".

Personally I don't think you can sensibly extrapolate from just two data points, so the actual numbers/dates are bound to be wrong but thought it was fun to do.

I disagree and your own chart suggests otherwise too!

Because if you are talking about a repeating pattern then you should see the whole thing and where in that pattern we are. In this statement you seem to be only focusing on the "yellow" part. However, the pattern (4-year cycle or whatever you want to call it) suggests that we at the end of the trend and need that bubble (red part) to finish the whole cycle. That means reaching $100k should only be the beginning of more bigger rises not a "crash".

And if you think the pattern is broken and after reaching $100k before April we are going to crash hard, then there is no reason to even look at this chart anymore!

P.S. The thing I took away from this chart is my own speculation that by the end of the year or first quarter of the next year if the bubble forms it will be at $400k (top of the red part like 2017 and 2013).

we are at 55k

so -15 to +15 is

40k to 70k

looks to be most likely range.

I will narrow it a bit later this week.

More or less it could be fair to use $6k as a base, since we spent a decent amount of time bouncing around $6k... but it seems problematic to use $6k as a base for May of 2019 - because largely BTC prices were in the midst of a run during that time.. starting from round $4,200 on April 1, 2019..  passed through $6k on its way up to $13,800 and then corrected back down to $6k on at least a few more occasions... maybe we could also suggest that the summer 2020 passing through $6k could be a charitable read to bouncing off of $6k to get a 10x within about 11 months to a year-ish.


Either you are being blind or you are being disingenuous when you are making such non-representative claims.

Look at the 19,666 December 2017 top, and then calculate the $3,122 bottom in December 2018.  That gives you about a 84% correction, and even if we calculate again to the flashcrash bottom of $3,850 in March 2020, that still gets you down nearly to 80%.. so even if technically there is some correction to assert that no 90% bottom has been reached, it is just a bullshit point because you are failing/refusing to actually grapple with 84% and 80% spikes down.. and yeah that spike down in December 2018 lasted for at least 3.5 months (hovering between about $3,700 and $4,100 so surely in touch to continue to threaten breaking down rather than UP, even though by April 1, 2019 we did get a breaking up from about a $4,200 base at that time.




That is factually true.. but I don't know if such chosen numbers are representative of much of anything except for a short lived macro liquidity event.



I calculate about 56% from $64,895 to $28,600.  and yeah, it threatened going down again for a couple of months through June and July because it did not really go up during that time and continued to hover in the lower $30ks.



Ok... you do recognize the 85% correction from the peak.  Great.


Fair enough.



It does not help when you seem to be bouncing around all over the place, so your thesis seems to be getting lost, no?  Is there a thesis to what you are saying?


Fair enough.


Another fair enough point if you are attempting to focus on how low we might go from here... so yeah.. focusing on down from here (whether referring to the December 7 date) or even down from here by the end of the year.. could be an interesting point.  There do seem to be some struggles in getting more and more down, but surely I would not be asserting that I have any clue when down is over... even though there is likely support in the lower $50ks.. and support in the $46ks and then support in the lower $30ks.. from there who knows?  It had seemed pretty certain that our $28,600 bottom was in once we had gone above $46k in early August 2021...and even if sub $40k was briefly visited it had seemed that odds were pretty damned decent that our $28,600 bottom was in... so who is to say if there is much of any chance of getting down to challenging such bottom again, which might end up causing the end of this particular bullrun.. and I would not rule out the end of this particular bullrun even if the odds of such seem to be in the minority at the moment.. perhaps less than 40%-ish..


I am not joking, and I think that I am being realistic. My name is not PlanB, either.. even though I do lend considerable credence to his outlines. Seems that I am not talking about probable; I was referring to doable.. kind of like potential best-case scenarios.

I had already provided you links to my assignment of probabilities for timing and also for quantities of UPpity. (Edit: whoops.  Those links that I provided earlier were responding to the first section of my response to BlackHatCoiner rather than to you specifically mikeywith).  

I am not sure if I should tweak the below numbers, but these were my numbers on October 30.  I cannot really see any subsequent developments to cause me to change my numbers beyond perhaps .5% to 1%  here or there.. I am not sure.. I would have to go through them with some kind of detailed attempts at pondering to consider if any of them have changed much if any.


If you add up my numbers you will see that I have odds of supra $650k for this cycle at about 7.25%... so maybe odds for supra $550k would not be much more than 10%-ish.

I discuss how I got some of these numbers (surely partly just the best I can do based on what I think to be possible and attempts at fair assignments of odds).

I don't see how my numbers are fantasy or unrealistic or any of the claims that you are attempting to put me in, even if you would likely assign those numbers/probabilities different than me.

I hope you are joking, I was going to ask if you meant "years" and not "quarters", but then even that doesn't change much, because $550k BTC in 2 years is just ... wishful thinking, even the very generous S2F model is predicting 550k  by Q2 of 2025, I am as pretty bullish on BTC I just think that having unrealistic and unsustainable predictions serves no purpose.



hmm

We closing in on the DATE....

WHo's the favo ??

this contest is over 69420 on the 7th. And I will be smiling as I collect.

Seriously i still think anyone from 40k to 80k can win.

But lower or higher is a real long shot.

I still am in striking range with my 70k, but not a real favorite. I guess 50k to 65k are more likely to win now that time is running down.

to be clear DEC 7 2021  00.00 CET is

Dec 6 2021 18.00 EST ?

The last time BTC went up 10x was from the March 2020 lows to the beginning of this year. It took about 9 months, but the March 2020 lows were only that low due to a crash that caused the price to decline (and quickly mostly recover) by around 50-60% in a matter of days. If you remove that few-day window when BTC was trading in the $3k range, it took almost two years for bitcoin to trade below $6k (may 2019) until it hit $60k (March 2021).

I don't think bitcoin has gone down 90% from any peak in the last 5 years, but it has gone down by a lot. As mentioned, it went down from just under $9k to the mid $3k range in March 2020. It went down ~45% from May to June of this year. It went down around 55% from December '18 to February '19 (it bottomed out in December '18 being down ~85% from the previous peak).

If you lower the threshold to going up 5x, bitcoin last did that from September '20 to February of this year (5 months). It previously went up 5x from August '17 to December '17 (5 months).

There have obviously been plenty of 2x increases, and 50% drops over the past 5 years. In general, I think a lot of the drops tend to be swift, although often it will take some time for the bottom to be reached. On the other hand, at the end of week 1 of a massive uptick in price, we have generally not yet seen the local high.

When this thread was opened, BTC was trading in the ~$31k range. I don't think it would have been crazy to say the price would go up 5x from the date the thread opened to when the contest ends.

The contest is far from over. There are things happening in financial markets right now that make me believe that we will see a lot of volatility in the coming weeks. I would not be surprised to see bitcoin go up 2-3x from local lows, nor would I be surprised to see a massive drop in the price. The question remains however where the local low is going to be located.

I agree that your prediction of $102,345 was pretty reasonable at the time that the predictions were being made, but surely it is seeming nearly impossible to reach in the remainder time for the game ... and even it might be a bit difficult to reach before the end of the calendar year since it seems that historically we have tended to get a bit of a ramping up before getting those kinds of UPwards price moves... and our recent activities have been pushing down.. so surely somehow momentum would need to change.. even a violent wick down or something could end up causing some kind of a BIG move up yet even those subsequent moves up can sometimes take some time to play out.. .. such as our 3.5x move up in April 2019 that took three months to play out from $4,200 to $13,800... but we did have a 12 hour BTC price rise on October 25, 2019 from $7,200-ish to $10,200-ish (which would be about 40%) that was all given back to the market over then subsequent 30 days with a correction back down to $6,500-ish.

For sure, BIGGER BTC prices does cause some needs for BIGGER players to be in the market (or even the leveraged products to end up getting liquidated) for the BTC prices to end up moving so greatly in such short periods of time, and personally I do believe that the overall BTC market does continue to have the ability for exponential price changes (even to the UPside) in a relatively short period of time.

Let's get back to 10x.. since that is such a lovely number.. think about 10x from here and we would end up having BTC prices going from $55k-ish to $550k-ish.. and how long would be consider for that to be reasonable to play out?  1, 2 or 3 quarters?  For me, 2 quarters seems doable... and 3 quarters almost would seem as if some of our currently existing and credible BTC price prediction models of stock to flow and four year fractal would be getting pushed to some kind of questionable limit in terms of their applicability.. even though our exponential s-curve adoption model that is based on networking effects and Metcalfe principles would still remain quite applicable in terms of recognizing a BTC price exponential period of something like 10x that might end up dragging out 3-ish quarters from now.

For sure the best that we have are quasi-educated guesses concerning what seems feasible even if there might end up being some surprise aspects regarding how BTC price movements end up playing out and what we might believe are reasonable in terms of their playing out - even accounting for potential outrageous scenarios (preferably to the upside, but outrageous could go in either direction, sad to admit).

I was being tongue-in-cheek in my post, as was responding to someone else's 1000% tongue in cheek, but no I've not quite made the move to fantasialand despite all my deepest wishes so no need to elaborate haha!

Never mind 10x but even 4x in a month to me would not be a normie move for sure (and I will say quite firmly though normal is absolutely relative and even though I haven't seen 10000% move for Bitcoin in my lifetime active, and as you say, a 2x move in a month would already be a signal screaming for everyone to be cautious).

Tempered against that, for me to reach my prediction now I almost need a 2x move in 10 days, I would need to be visiting fantasialand but I'm all checked out for now, and waiting to see if LoyceV's latter comments on December FOMO could come through.

Meanwhile for the next 10 days, these are the guys I'm looking at the most now:

That seems a bit of a too equal attempt to create neutrality in your perspective when bitcoin is actually inclined UPpity.

Sure, if bitcoin reaches a top of a peak, then the 10% of the current price is a prudent assertion.

Dire predictions of 10% of current prices (that's $5,400-ish) are really pie in the sky.. and probably the most that you could get from current prices would be something like $15k.. which would be around 28%-ish... ...

In other words, for sure if BTC prices shot up to supra to $200k in a short period of time and gosh even up to $1.5 million, then the higher the shoot up in the shorter amount of time, then your 10% of then current prices becomes more and more plausible.. which would be between $20k and $150k respectively for the BIG correction from those shoot-up numbers of $200k-ish to $1.5million-ish.

I am just asserting that we should attempt to be a bit more discerning when we are attempting to make realistic outrageous BTC price performance scenarios, and sure we know anything could happen, including Armageddon.. but just seems quite out there to be giving any kind of "to take seriously" assertion to the most extreme of the Armageddon outlines.


I know that we have seen outrageous scenarios to the upside in bitcoin, too.. but 1,000% in a month is just not in any of the normie cards... even though it would be in fantasylandia cards...

I am not sure if I need to elaborate.. but just think about if we have a ramping up of BTC price to the upside.. by the time we start to get to 2x in any particular month, then we are getting close to a blow off top.. so sure we could end up getting 10x over a couple of months or maybe it could take at least three.. I am not sure.. but we gotta attempt to be somewhat realistic, no?  

Show me any recent and materially relevant historical examples that come even close to 10x in a month?...

and the larger the market cap (even though liquidity does get removed from exchanges), the more difficult it does become to get something like 10x BTC price performances in a month.. ..

Sure when BTC prices were at $2 (in 2011/2012).. we might have had some of those kinds of 10x in a month.. but even in more modern times like 2013 (a pretty damned exponential period), we had 100x in less than a year, our at the end of the cycle 10x took around 3 months to play out.. the same in 2017 (another pretty damned exponential period of 78x for the overall bullrun from late 2015 to late 2017 and around supra 25x for the 12 months preceding the top) .. the 10x portion of that end of the cycle took probably longer than 6 months to play out.


I don't know about those "self-fulfilling" prophecy theories, and really seems to me that when too many people start to expect something with a quite a bit of conviction, that causes quite a bit of fuel for reckening of those kinds of peeps fitting in those somewhat rigid expectation categories.

I kinda doubt this. While in 2017 the ATH was indeed in December, wasn't the 2013 ATH in November? So maybe the rule should be "in the last months of the year", not necessarily December...

It works both ways: December 2017 was the peak, so many expect the same again this year. So I expect those people to try to sell a bit earlier, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
On the other hand, others are no doubt looking to buy the dip, and if the dip doesn't happen, it can quickly turn into FOMO.

I'm with you on this and yeah I've actually seen myself on random Twitter influencers-of-doubtful-standing using a 31 Dec marker, so something is definitely brewing. I don't expect Bitcoin markets to be immature enough to actually react to such a psychological date, but if other markets do, it tends to influence Bitcoin in some way.

10% a day is what I expect, so what's happening right now (-7.5%) is perfectly normal...

...and I've become so normalised that 1000% in a month is still on the cards for me.

My crypto, since I'm never pulling it out of wallet if the bull target isn't met, is on the bullish side. I don't mind losing, it just means another few years wait. I've done that. I can do it again.

In Dutch we say: het kan vriezen en het kan dooien. For Bitcoin, I expect anything from 10% of the current price to 1000% of the current price in the coming year. I'd be surprised if my very broad prediction is incorrect
For what it's worth: my money is on the bullish side.

I believe the mood will not change, and no end of the month surge is expected. There were some people in Twitter saying to “make as much money as you can before December 30”.

Bitcoin might reach six digits on December, then crash?

Here comes my 47.5k prediction. If anybody is asking how I did it: I have my own time machine, obviously. Its a blue box I stole from some british guy. I will be donating my winnings to myself and the foundation which donates to me only

Seriously, with 5 days to go? I'm disappointed.

He accepted falling short on $98k but still optimistic other parts


https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1463849685924388866?s=21