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Yeah well, i'm sorry to tell you that there are always better people than you know.
I can guarantee you that there are people not involved in bitcoin that could produce a better ASIC than any bitcoin-involved parties. The only question is, are they interested enough to get into it now.
There is nothing magical about bitcoin and the algorithm the ic will need to execute is already decided.
Also notice that the problems the ASIC companies are having is not with the hardware implementation of hashing but with the actual technical bit of producing ASICs. They would be screwing up the same way even if they designed an mp3 player instead of a bitcoin hasher.
And all these problems are what real pro's have learned to manage.
So i can fully imagine someone with a plan being able to poop out bitcoin ASICS in a much shorter time frame then what we currently see.
If not then maybe you can explain what would make a bitcoin ASIC so difficult to design for an outsider that they could never catch up.
How many failed (serious) outsider ASIC companies have there been for you to have noticed this dynamic as a general fact?
It's easy to explain.Yeah well, i'm sorry to tell you that there are always better people than you know.
I can guarantee you that there are people not involved in bitcoin that could produce a better ASIC than any bitcoin-involved parties. The only question is, are they interested enough to get into it now.
There is nothing magical about bitcoin and the algorithm the ic will need to execute is already decided.
Also notice that the problems the ASIC companies are having is not with the hardware implementation of hashing but with the actual technical bit of producing ASICs. They would be screwing up the same way even if they designed an mp3 player instead of a bitcoin hasher.
And all these problems are what real pro's have learned to manage.
So i can fully imagine someone with a plan being able to poop out bitcoin ASICS in a much shorter time frame then what we currently see.
If not then maybe you can explain what would make a bitcoin ASIC so difficult to design for an outsider that they could never catch up.
How many failed (serious) outsider ASIC companies have there been for you to have noticed this dynamic as a general fact?
The outsiders always think like an outsider.
They've made chips that do simple stuff and don't require much power or much complexity.
Yes the algorithm is simple (hell I even wrote a program that generates optimised working BTC c sha256 code from a simple text definition - that works) ... but to implement it in hardware is not.
Go have a look at the FPGA bitstreams and discussions from the latter part of 2011 to get an idea.
Anyway, it doesn't really matter - we are already 10 days into the "few months" and they've only just announced this hardware company.
When 8-July rolls around, they wont be anywhere near complete and they'll have proven themselves that they cannot do it in "a few months"
We've got 4 companies who have already built bitcoin hardware before they started on ASIC.
ASICMINER, Avalon, BFL and bASIC.
The last one failed, the 2nd last one still hasn't released their hardware, and the other 2 took way over 3 months to produce a chip that hashes slower than an FPGA - it just requires hundreds of them to get 'ASIC' speeds.
One thing I think you don't understand, is that BTC is full of tech people who DO know what they are talking about and who DO work for companies that do this sort of stuff.
Anyway, we'll see on the 8th of July.
