TGB's 60 and 90 day estimates aren't garbage, they've done fairly well over the last few months. Back in September it was showing about a billion for January, and that wasn't far off.
So far, the people saying things like this are also the same people who got everything else wrong in this thread. Meanwhile myself, Avenger, and our non-english speaking friend, have had really great projections and speculation-come-true.
Bitcoin works well at $10 or $100? What does that matter? I'm sure it would work well at $1,000,000 also. Sounds like some folks are just upset and want hardware makers to suffer.
TGB works good for short term, but it (at least historically) continues to extrapolate an exponential increase in hashrate over the longer term. I haven't used that calc in several months, so this may be old news.
However, when it was first used to generate a lot of FUD, it showed such. That has already tapered off. What we'll likely see in coming months is a number of spikes where it goes up by a lot, followed by a small climb for a couple of diff periods. Then it will taper off. The problem, of course, is predicting how those spikes and valleys will happen. This is essentially impossible in the long term, and this is not solely a bitcoin problem. We know who the major players are, but there is a lot of interest in building and disseminating hashpower. Ultimately it will come down to the mix of exchange rate and electric costs.
Which seems to me to be a great opportunity, one I'm going to pursue. Off grid power generation is going to become necessary to the mining community sooner rather than later, or else a great many of these machines are indeed NOT going to achieve positive ROI in the not too distant future. Even if you, like me, don't care whether that ROI is bitcoin or fiat or gold or fucking cows. Yet if you could generate your own power, the useful life of the machines becomes indefinite, rather than extremely finite. I've long been interested in small scale power generation anyway. I have some interesting ideas along those lines, and when I get them firmed up a little better I'll start a thread regarding that. Not sure what subforum it should be on, though
On topic, I suspect that this hosting facility of KNCs is going to be a PR disaster for them. I think they would have been smarter to just do it quietly, sell Jupiters, and be up front about any delays. I think such a center would be good for the network as a whole, as it would put a cramp on CEX and force them to be more competitive in their share prices, plus leading just generally to more competition in cloud mining. But they way they appear to be doing this is, frankly, stupid.
I served on guppy2's, electric boats built in the late 1940's. Ah, to have a single 1.5v cell from one of those. Each cell weighted a few tons.