Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 205. (Read 58731 times)

First of all I think this game will not be decided by both offenses, but by the defenses and which defense can make crucial stops and/or get turnovers. Furthermore I think this will be a super close one, I mean really close, where TB will lead for most of the game and also win the SB in the end. @morvillz7z posted a nice list of pros&cons there and I will add a few thoughts.


KC surely has the upper hand in the coaching department - I like Arians and he is a good coach, but Reid is still a level above. But the Bucs can compensate this gap a bit with the Goat himself, who has tons of experience in such games and is a little on-field coach and a better one than Mahomes.

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It's really hard to beat a top team twice in a season, even more so twice in away games. And this, and the home field advantage in general, is something that is missing for me, when I look at the odds. If you have a blank sheet of paper and start compiling the odds, you first add the home advantage and this makes the odds go from 50/50 to 60/40 or ~1.7 vs 2.5. I don't see how these odds are switched when you add all the other factors in afterwards.

I still remember Michael Strahan saying in 2008: "We need to get to Tom Brady or we will not win this Superbowl". Who do I trust more to make the opposing QB feel uncomfortable ? Bucs.
Season sacks: TB 48, Chiefs 32
Sacks allowed: TB 22, Chiefs 24
Of course Mahomes can defend himself way better against the pass rush with his mobility than Brady can do, but still.

As I said before, the Chiefs weren't super convincing all season long, winning a lot of close games (which is some quality of its own tbf), showing different faces and having their ups and downs during the 60 minutes of a game - they won't get away with this today. TB has the better scalps recently winning @NO and @GB, so I dare to say that they are the hotter team for me right now, albeit them having their problems in this season as well, but not so much during a single game.

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All in all the odds for TB represent some value for me and I will play ML on the Bucs. No big stakes, because no big value and this will be close till the end (hopefully !). I am pretty sure you will get both teams >3 inplay, so prematch ML should only be a smaller bet for some adrenaline right from the start

I also like the under, but this is super meh to bet on in a SB.

Ew. You can have all of it.

Good luck to both teams.

j/k

Go Tampa Brady.

Happy Super Bowl Sunday every one!

This bound to be a good game, the spreads are so tight, and money lines are low.  I prefer a close back and fourth game, it keeps things interesting.  But: if it's close, and Tom Brady's team is the under dog...  There's only one way to go.

Anyway, I picked the Bucks +6.5, and added a few props to boost the odds:



Good luck with your bets today, have fun, and enjoy those Costco hotdogs.  But this time, please don't eat all the guacamole before I'm able get some.

I was trying to make myself a list with both teams good and bad sides, this is what i came up with, it's not super detailed/complete by any means.

pros/cons

Bucs:
-top 5 offense/defense
-playing at home
-Brady's experience
-top pass rushers


-Bucs corners/secondary
-turnovers
-Brady's immobility
-suspect run game with Fournette and Ronald Jones


KC:
-Andy Reid's creativity as a coach
-Mahomes
-special teams
-best TE in the game for the past couple of years
-"Cheetah" and his 269 yards and 3 TD vs. the Bucs in the regular season
-Steve Spagnuolo defenses which have a winning record vs. Brady (3-2)


-missing two starting linemen (this is huge)
-Mahomes has 8-1 record when trailing by 2 scores (in case Bucs and Brady start hot as they did two weeks ago) lol

I say Chiefs repeat!

As for betting, i have nothing yet but i like Mahomes 20+ rush yards with Hill Anytime score and Chiefs to win for around 5.xx

Anyway, have fun tomorrow. T-1 day.

This year I'm doing something a bit different and waiting until minutes before kickoff to place a bet.

Hearing some sad news about Andy Reid's son who is also one of their defensive coaches, involved in a drunk driving accident yesterday? Don't know if its true or not.

My guess was that a bunch of money is gonna come in on KC @ -3 right before kickoff, but who knows now given this new intangible.

Most of the "pros" I've listened to on podcasts and youtube think KC will cover; however, they also don't like the idea of betting against Brady -- neither do I.

For fun I'm putting in a small wager but I won't know for sure until the numbers start to move next to the bet. I'm gonna chase whatever direction its moving in.

For prop bets I liked total penalties under 10 and KC to score passing TD over 18.5 yards. Unfortunately I got to them a bit late and they're too lopsided for me to bet on now.

As most predictions have the Bucs scoring at least 27+ points I have decided to place a prop bet on Brady to score over 2.5 touchdowns at $2.25 I mentioned 2 weeks ago that even though I like the Chiefs to win, I still think Brady will have a good game and score at least 3 touchdowns. This is just my opinion and I went with some value.

The Rams really screwed themselves.  Twice.  Once when the signed Goff to a "franchise QB" contract, and again when they changed their minds.  Not that I'm complaining, although I would have been happy to see Goff stay in the NFC west, if you catch my drift.

I agree that the Lions got the better end of the bargain, and the Rams still have a cap hit for this year, along with little room to do much.  Stafford might have a stronger arm, but if Sean McVay thinks that's going to solve the Rams' problems, he's in for rude awakening.

I also don't get the digs on Goff.  I think he's a fine quarterback, with a lot of talent.  He's had issues with turnovers, but there's plenty of blame to go around for a significant portion of them, not excluding the coaching staff.  This past year he had the best completion percentage of his career, he started 15 games, played in all 16, while hurt for a few of them, including the playoffs.


I read that somewhere recently, also.  They always seem to come up with some tricks, but usually it had to do with Drew Brees restructuring his contract.


Most of the Bucks' players haven't been to a superbowl, so there's a chance that the big-stage jitters will give the Chiefs the advantage.  I think the Bucks covering the spread is a safe bet, but it's pretty darn close.  I have a feeling the Bucks are going to win, they have a slight edge on Defense, and as the saying goes "Defense wins championships." 

I'd say this is the safest bet.

As usual I placed my bets a week nearly two weeks ago and ain't gonna regret it, mostly because Super Bowl is just an excuse to get drunk and eat 8000 calories worth of junk food LOL.

Chiefs will make all the right plays but Bucs win by a hail mary.

Also over 54.5 points and a long shot bet on having OT. Winning any one of those three bets would make my balance positive for the season.

With just one day remaining to the SB here there are some interesting things about the last game of the season.

The Madden SB prediction is out and not surprisingly they have the KC Chiefs winning the game 37-27.

Also the Tecmo Super Bowl prediction is out as well and its prediction is a lot closer, with KC winning the game 28-27.

Finally a 3.5 million bet was made on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover the spread.

What are your predictions? In my case I am torn, this is a classic case of an ‘unstoppable force(Mahomes) meeting an immovable object(Brady)’ but I will give the win to the Chiefs 30-27 in OT.

OK, OK, I got excited I admit it, lets say the Lions got the best part of the deal.

I understand why you are cautious, but even if you do not trust their GM if you think on those picks as lottery tickets they are bound to hit some of those picks by sheer luck so the Lions still have some hope despite the incompetence of the franchise over the years.

The Saints are in cap hell no matter what they do, the best course of action would be to cut Brees Post-June 1 and save 25 millions on the cap this year but even that is only enough to lower that amount to 87 millions over the cap, which means they would like to trade away many of their stars and do so Post-June 1 to get the maximum cap savings possible, there is just one issue, the league forces teams to be below the cap before the start of the league year which will begin on March 17, so it seems the Saints will have to get rid of most of their star players and will not be competitive at all during the next season.

Hey NFL fans,

Sportsbet is throwing a "Super Bowl 55: Prop Party" and will be giving away Arsenal jerseys + Free Bets




Don't miss out; it's going to be L-I-T  

(Big thanks to DireWolfM14 for allowing me to post this in his thread)

I stopped reading right there

Even though I think you're underestimating their ability to screw it up.

Speaking of caps, I can't wait to see the tricks Saints come up with to get under the cap. They're over by like a hundred mil last time I checked.

I was going to watch it but I was so busy during the weekend that not only I did miss the Madden Pro Bowl but I also missed the Senior Bowl.


I do not think the two first round picks were for Stafford, in my opinion the Rams paid one first round pick and a third for him, which makes sense as the Lions wanted a first round pick for Stafford but since there were so many teams interested the Rams had to offer a little bit more for him so they could get him, the other first round pick was for the Lions to accept Goff’s contract since it was Impossible to have both Goff and Stafford on the organization at the same time, so they needed a trading partner for Goff and with that contract no one wanted him so they made a deal with the Lions since they could take the hit of having Goff on their team.

In a way this reminds me of the Browns-Texans trade for Brock Osweiler and those kind of moves at least to me tells me of an organization that is only thinking short term but that over the long term will suffer, as it is the case of the Texans right now,  the Lions are the big winners of this trade, they are picking a QB this year if Goff works out and improves his game then they can trade him and get more picks, if not then just cut him and build around the future QB of the franchise, on the other hand the Rams are on a win now mode, they got Stafford and 12.75 millions in cap space, they are still 19 millions over the projected cap but it can be solved if they smart.

@ChiBitCTy. Everyone will be betting on the Buccaneers because it is Tom Brady. Everyone will also bet on Tom Brady as superbowl MVP because yes, it is Tom Brady hehehehe. However, if they win, I reckon it would be because of their defense similar to what they did to Greenbay. Shaquil Barret is a good candidate for this.

I live for Sunday football.  At times I feel like I'd prefer just to go in to hibernation for the winter/spring/summer just so I can only be awake during fall football season    Okay maybe exaggerating a bit.

I think they sure did give up a hell of a lot, but being a bears fan and having watched a lot of Matt Stafford, I think this certainly makes them exponentially better for the next few years..only time will tell who won the trade.

I see the SB line moved to -3...glad I didn't place at -3.5.

Sunday without football sucks, i bet yall didn't tune in for Madden Pro Bowl edition, did you? Well, it was baaad, a shocker i know. lol

Big trade came down yesterday, what do you make of Lions and Rams QB swap, Stafford a good fit in LA or not?

I like Stafford's game but i don't like giving up two first-rounders for him, feels like too much.

Rams (and Chargers) will host next year's Super Bowl, Rams have a solid defense, improved O Line, plenty of weapons on offense, and an upgrade in the passing game in Stafford. A lot of people have them as SB contenders next season already, i'm not so sure about that, but i do have Woods and Kupp as sleeper WR1 targets in fantasy football.

@ralle14. I think after 2 weeks of rest the Chiefs might not only cover the spread but also win by more than a 10 point lead. The Chiefs are playing for history to be included in a list of teams to win back to back superbowls. They also have the best record in the regular season.

I think -6.5/-7 seems way too much -3.5 sounds about right since the last time they met it ended 27-24 for the Chiefs but if you're very confident on them to cover the -6.5 alt line it's currently sitting at 2.35.

My heart wants to take the points on the Bucs but I feel like the Chiefs will stomp them, I might just whip a teaser so I could bring down the over down to 50 and Chiefs spread to +3 @1.9.  

Should it not be -6.5 or a full touchdown? However, it might move to -3 when thousands of fans begin betting their money on the goat Tom Brady hehe.

@Hueristic. I speculate Las Vegas Raiders. They wanted an old star quarterback last year hehehe. They might try again.