Hey guys, I too snoozed on the 2nd batch, I wanted to get 6 boards, but after plugging the numbers in to the bitcoinwisdom.com calculator I just couldn't get anywhere, all the time coming out in a loss, unless I upped the bitcoin price, but that is not the case at this point, if the price stays at $6xx then I will never even return my investment, even $700 doesn't seem like it would be enough. How do you guys look at this, if I get 6 boards(~700 Gh/s x6)=4.2 Th/s, power .15 kWh, difficulty inc. - 20%, hardware cost - 875 x 6 = ~$5,250 + 6 PSUs(~120 x 6 = $720) + 6 Cooling systems(~120 x 6 = $720) --- Total cost = ~$6,690.
I agree that yes it will be very fun to play around with the Habaneros while putting them together and configuring/perfecting them, but at the end of the day or week or month I want to make some money as well. So I guess what I am not understanding is how would I be able to make my investment back and make some money with the Bitcoin miners such as "The Habanero".
Another difficulty I'm seeing is, of course most people are setting these things up at home, but at 1000 watt a board you could only have a limited amount of these boards set up in the house and even then in different locations of the house(if whoever you live with will even allow these devices in their spaces of the house or a mess of very long power cables running all over the house to the rig station) so that each board uses 1 circuit, so at around 9 boards my circuit breaker wouldn't be able to handle any more.
How are you guys coping with these electrical limits?
What still keeps you in the Bitcoin mining game with the increasing difficulty?
I was waiting on a post like this... and I have your answer... though you still wont see anything but a minor payoff unless price of BTC goes up.
Basically... if you look at the landscape of the ASIC technology coming out this year... it looks eerily similar to the HD 7 series cards hitting the market before ASICs finally got dropped by Avalon and others. We are sitting at the 28nm line as of right now just awaiting the mass of miners to unleash. Just like when the HD 7 series arrived and all the CPU miners had to move to scrypt, most of the early ASICs will now be in negative returns in respect to electric costs and will be sold off to people who don't care about electric cost or just plain deactivated, leaving swaths of hashrate dying out of the global pool. this means soon, the difficulty increase will begin it's inevitable plateau leaving some small room for miner ROI.
Why is this true? Because the next steps for ASIC efficiency are into 22nm and 14nm territory, which as right now is something only Intel, Nvidia and AMD have really started mass producing (there are others I am sure but the two foundries making them are all used by these vendors). The foundries with this technology already have their calendar full of multi-million or even BILLION USD roll outs for these major vendors. Intel and Nvidia are definitely already pressing 14nm tech... and AMD is moving out of 22nm now and starting to work at the 14nm level. This means there is not a single SHA256d ASIC developer out there that could get production time anytime soon. At BEST, someone will eventually get in the abandoned 22nm line when INTEL, AMD and Nvidia have all moved the majority of their product to the new 14nm on a solid basis.
What does this mean for us miners? It means you will see one more "double down" in ASIC efficiency in the next 18 months which will kill off 65nm and 55nm miners completely. Look at it this way...
1. 65nm BFL chips are turning LESS than
2 cents per day per GH/s at $.10 per kWh at
5-6 J/GH/s2. 55nm Bitmain chips are turning LESS than
2.5 cents per day per GH/s at $.10 per kWh at
2+ J/GH/s3. 28nm HF Habaneros are turning LESS than
2.6 cents per day per GH/s ay $.10 per kWh at
1 J/GH/sNothing that I have seen (that I believe anyways) has proven to really mine below the 1 J/GH/s mark yet... that can be had by consumers at this point. I won't believe the Monarch figures until someone third party verifies it in their own hands. The odds of us seeing a 22nm product that is double the efficiency of these 28nm products is laughably impossible. Not until 14nm ASICs will we see a double down from these Habaneros and other 28nm miners. The time and funds it is going to take to develop 22nm would almost be for naught except it is going to be the second halving before anyone can say they have a 14nm chip lined up at the foundry.
Put all that together and you should see, by the end of the year, a price increase in BTC, a plateau in difficulty... and people ditching their old gear for 28nm as quickly as the vendors can stock the miners... all of which should enable a Habanero to ROI this year.
If anyone disagrees or has anything to add or clarify on the above... i welcome feedback.
~Daemon