Topic: The new U.S.-China agreement is a "forced friendship. What awaits the world ? - page 2. (Read 617 times)

I absolutely agree with you. The reason is the really difficult situation of the Chinese economy. And while "for the public" there is a "war with the West," at the government level China is well aware that confrontation and mutual restrictions will cause China to lose. The West has learned to adapt and is ready for some "inconveniences" associated with the transition processes, but they are well aware that China will have to go "to bow" to the Western world - without this market China's economy will fall even more.
Let's just say that China benefits from partnership with the West and does not benefit from severing ties. The West can live without China.

Take for example their new "scarecrow" - restrictions on the supply of rare earth metals germanium and gallium. But today they were told by TSMC that there will be no problem with chip production. I started to look into the issue - it turns out that China is not an exclusive supplier, it's just the cheapest supplier. And these metals are mined in other countries:
Gallium - Japan, South Korea, Ukraine
Germanium - Canada, Belgium, USA

I am not sure if China has such intentions or not because the way they are acting against America or were acting against America last year, I believe this is not the right way to think about it. As mentioned in former post Putin is also another factor that can create conflict in this friendship for sure. I mean it will either create conflict between Russia China relations, OR may be China America relation. How can they be allies together if one is enemy of the other and their friend is moving towards the enemy isn't good in the diplomatic relationship in the future.

This type of agreements were never good in the past so I am not sure if they would be in the future too?

They will depend on each other for the supply chain of various things but they won't have country-country relations for the good.

If you ask me, I believe it will be China who will start bending over. China's economy is currently in a worse than expected state after the COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. Some economists/analysts mistakenly projected that the Chinese people will start spending most of their savings in goods and services after lockdowns, BUT they were obviously very wrong. They later found out that Chinese consumers are not like American consumers because Asians have more tendencies to save than the people living in the United States.

I already posted about the possble recession coming in the U.S. and Europe because of QT, which will hurt China more because the U.S. and its allies are the biggest importers of Chinese goods.

Yes. I see it that way as well. Visually disrupting a sector of the Taiwanese economy in such a powerful way could have quite an impactful global impact, causing potential loss of expertise, disruptions in supply chains, and economic instability. The US maybe  take a nuanced approach to staying engaged with China on a variety of issues, including Taiwan with the aim of safeguarding its broader interests and maintaining stability in the region. One side, Yes. as you said above the US should not be involved in a conflict with China, that does not mean that Taiwan is completely abandoned.

I think it's good to first understand the motivation behind their actions and their special interests.

With the current US economic situation that is expected, covid hit American Economic pretty hard, it is still recovering, engaging in any military conflict will slow their economic recovery and it also requires a lot of fund. Even if China finally invade Taiwan, the best US could do is just the same as what they could do in the Ukraine, giving sanction. And even though there will be some bad economic effect for U.S tech manufacturer, they are also one of the biggest Chip producer, direct competition with Taiwan, so US will get some of the Taiwan consumer if Taiwan stop producing. For the rest of the world, War is always a bad thing. China is the both huge consumer and producer for the world, we will have shortage in many items.

Point taken, but to retract previous support regardless of whatever they have going on right now with China is something that I've never seen before. Plus this looks like an uneasy alliance to me considering these two countries are acting tough despite their current economic situations, and the best move to not rile the other's anger is to just show support. In any case I don't see this "alliance" if you can even call it that as something that will stay for a long time, I'll give it until the war between Russia and Ukraine ends, and these two countries will be back to throwing shit at each others like two silverback gorillas in a zoo.

As for Taiwan, well I guess they just have to deal with it lmao.

My opinion is that neither China nor the United States needs a new global conflict. But this does not mean that the U.S. has "bent over" to China. I have confidence that although Taiwan has become somewhat of a hostage to the current, complicated, international situation, but... The terms of Taiwan's "return" will be exclusively according to China's rules. My opinion is that there will be an agreement on sufficiently broad autonomy for Taiwan.
I have written more than once that in my opinion it will be a "showcase peace treaty" with the Chinese CCP presenting it as "China's great victory over Western hegemony", but there will be "nuances" that will not be publicly talked about. This includes China's concessions not to support Russia as an international terrorist. The world is already tired of cataclysms - KOVID, the light version of the third world war, etc. Again, let me remind you that China needs Taiwan as a working leading manufacturer of microelectronics, and any forceful solution to this "issue" will lead to the total destruction of Taiwan's unique economic sector.

China is not getting "desperate" china is just facing what happens when you grow more than you should and learning what to do with that. Look at USA for example, they have huge debt, what is it now something like 30 trillion or something? That's insane and of course that's not going to be easy to handle and we are talking about bigger amount of money than they could ever pay, and yet they are living life like nothing happened.

China wasn't this big 20 years ago, and they were much bigger 10 years ago but wasn't this big anyway, they grew and grew and grew basically, which meant that they went from a poor nation of rice famers to an industrial monopoly and that resulted with them not knowing what to do, but I bet they will find a way eventually.

This is me smiling at Taiwan when they thought they had gotten a strong ally in the US. I can't imagine them (US) going to something close to war with China because deep down they need these guys to survive and Xi Jingping knows it.
Imagine the lame excuse being given for their reason to renege; refusing to support any unilateral changes to the status quo. I mean, this is just plain cowardly behavior because you supply arms to them yet avoid any official diplomatic contact.

Probably because China has recognized the fact that its economy's growth can't be sustained without the U.S. and its allies. Economic prosperity for them should also mean economic prosperity for the West because who are among the largest consumers of Chinese exports? THE WEST! China's domestic demand definitely can't support their economy.

China is getting desperate and they need the West to pivot to QE, but it will continue to tighten as long as inflation is high, unemployment is low, and as long as markets don't crash.

Like it or not, China has begun to change its rhetoric and OFFICIAL POSITION in a big way.
Brussels, Belgium. China's representative to the European Union said that Beijing has nothing against Ukraine's desire to restore its territorial integrity to its 1991 borders, including Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
In a recent interview with Al Jazeera and two other media outlets, when asked about Fu Kong's support for Kiev's goals, including the return of other Ukrainian regions now occupied by Russia, the senior Chinese diplomat said: "I don't see why not.

Judging by China's sharply changed rhetoric, Putin is already a downed pilot for Beijing ....

The campaign of "justice" PMC "Wagner" through the Rostov, Voronezh, Lipetsk and Tula regions to Moscow is unlikely to please the inhabitants of the Kremlin. In Rostov, the "Fortress" plan was introduced, which involved the protection of all important objects and the defense of the city. PMC "Wagner", which for almost a year stormed the small Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, immediately took Rostov, which is a significant regional center of Russia. Behind him fell Voronezh and other Russian cities. It is not known how this would all have ended if Prigozhin had not deployed his PMC about 200 kilometers from Moscow. On the way, the Wagnerites shot down 6 Russian military helicopters and one aircraft, which was a command center.

But the actions of Putin and his entourage on the approach of PMC "Wagner" really resembled a circus. Putin got on the plane and after a while even the transponders were turned off so that it was impossible to establish where he was running away. Medvedev, who constantly threatens Ukraine, and the head of the government, Mishustin, flew somewhere behind him. In a word, everyone began to scatter like rats. Then the Russian elite, and even ordinary citizens, began to flee the country. Therefore, plane tickets have risen in price tenfold.

Here it is appropriate to compare these actions with the actions of the President of Ukraine Zelensky and the government of Ukraine during the invasion on February 24, 2022, when the 200,000-strong Russian army entered Ukraine from three sides in solid armored columns. Zelensky remained in Kyiv even as Russian tanks appeared in the vicinity, and numerous groups entered the city to kill him.

The citizens of Russia seem quite interested in the new plot twist in this story, even those who have long ceased to follow the developments in Ukraine and live their normal lives. For the townsfolk, it looks like some kind of fucking circus - nothing is clear, but very interesting.

There are rumors that the leader of Wagner, a para-military group, has started saying that he "vows to topple Russian military leaders". What does this mean? It's a coup! If they topple Putin's regime, they take command of the country. Without Putin, China loses a powerful ally.

Tin-foil hats on, but it's possible that the C.I.A. is behind this. They helped topple the regimes of Saddam Hussien, Gaddafi, and other dictatorial-type regimes, then facilitate in installing a leader who's friendly with the United States.

China's place in the geo-political landscape will be weakened if Wagner is successful because obviously it will be surrounded in all directions.

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be.open, how are the Russian citizens reacting with Wagner's move?

You see, the thing is... Ten years ago, I would have agreed with you with reservations, but I did. Now the world has changed. Everyone has realized that the "avoiding a real solution" approach is the way to escalate the problem. And Russia is an example, or rather a trigger for a change in policy. Before 2022, looking at state terrorism and the destruction of civilians and cities, everyone was just "expressing concern," "offering to discuss," "let us not heat up and provoke," then after 2022 everyone realized that inadequate regimes, and inadequate countries, need to be rebuffed. So they stop fantasizing about their "greatness" and abandon their attempts at blackmail and economic terrorism, and say with a sadistic bastard smile, "well, then they will all freeze without our gas. Only 1 option works with terrorists and criminals - forceful, painful, and optimally - destruction. Yes, there are still those who appear to be heavily dependent, or are on the "hook" for Kremlin compromise - but that's their problem... And the adequate world has understood - it is necessary to respond, it is necessary to strike back, it is necessary to reduce the potential of criminals and terrorists by all means. That is why China, now is so unhappy with Russia ! Russia has essentially failed, in the future, the project "Taiwan is the Crimea according to China" !  \Russia surpassed Hitler's Nazis with its aggression and sadism, and thus united the world against such regimes. China was waiting for the whole world to "express concern" again and silently give Ukraine to be destroyed or taken over by Russia. It didn't. And now China has no chance of a "short, victorious military operation" to get Taiwan ! Now we have to negotiate, look for compromises, and make some concessions !

I think it makes sense that USA would not be able to continue down the same path that they have been going for a long time with this method. I mean they are spending trillion a year on military, for what? Who are they fighting against?

Looking at the last 70 years, they haven't been in a single war that was reasonable for them, they could have avoided it if possible, the last reasonable war was world war two, maybe Korea too if you want to include that considering China would have gone in anyway, but that's the only one that made sense, since then all the wars they got in for nothing at all, and achieved nothing in the end as well. This is why them spending this much makes no sense and they need these friendships to make sure they don't bankrupt.

That's exactly what I asked for, give me a direct link because I couldn't find it myself. Tnx.

What has been presented as communism is one of the most vile, most inhumane, most totalitarian regimes. If you read modern history, it is the countries with the communist ideology that stand out in terms of the total number of people, destinies, and mutilated souls destroyed.

But back to microchips. the fact is that china does not produce high-tech chips. China Tries to master this technology, but the technological gap between the leaders and China is huge. The fact that they recently patented their lithographic technology means nothing. Because it may take a decade to implement industrial equipment! China runs on European, American and Japanese technology, which is also now starting to flee China. Yes, 80-40nm China could potentially produce. But... You won't get far on this since this technology is almost 20 years old. Once again 3 simple, easily verifiable facts:
- All of China's high-tech microelectronics production is Western technology
- Its own technology of this level, in China - NO
- the lag in chip production technology, from the west, in china is a decade, and the window of opportunity is greatly reduced

The US officials are pushed to do this "friendship" ties with China because they can't do otherwise. Financially and physically, they can't afford otherwise too.

I think so too. It's not a wise to follow the USA right now and European Union isn't well united, there is an interest conflict inside.

 

It is ridiculous to read such statements from a person whose favorite news is the inscriptions on the fence and the gossip of the outcasts in front of the entrance, or "the opinion of the world-famous expert on all matters", whose name no one knows!

Ok, let's play your game
Step 1. I give a link: google.com
Step 2. If you find yourself mentally powerless and cannot overcome the mega-complex technology by searching the Internet for keywords, let me know - I will give you a direct link, I'm kind

Well, some positive news from China:
China sharply reduced purchases of Russian oil
Reuters: Russian oil supplies to China more than halved in June
Between June 1 and 19, Russian oil supplies to China, which is one of Moscow's key oil export destinations, dropped sharply. Reuters reports this with reference to Refinitiv Eikon statistics and information from traders.
In May, for the same period, deliveries amounted to 0.67 million tons, in the current month - 0.26 million, that is, we are talking about a reduction in the volume of purchases by more than two times. China received 300,000 tons of Russian oil from offshore transshipments, which is 120,000 less than from May 1 to May 19.

It seems that China knew what the conversation with the USA would be about and decided to make a gesture of goodwill, showing that the terrorist country is an appendage for him that he can manipulate as he wishes, and even indicative - for friends from the USA