Topic: The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug) - page 3. (Read 14218 times)

I like your optimism !
But I don't see any major event on the horizon which can affect the BTC price.
There is only one exception: Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, but this will not happen in July..

July is not over yet.

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

*-* posts like this make my tears off of happiness *-*

Assuming you actually mean that nobody can accurately predict anything, and not just make a prediction, you'd have to wait to see what happens in the future to check if you are right.  Making a statement about what will or will not happen in the future is a prediction.  So you've made a prediction.

This is not a prediction, but a fact.

It sounds to me like you're predicting that nobody can predict anything.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

You seem to forget USA is not the only country in the world.

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

Which government? Which gambling websites in which countries?

Why is this supposed to matter?

Don't forget government also going after gambling website which uses bitcoin.

You are misreading me, i'm not agitated at all! simply pointing out the pointless nature of the discussion. But I agree, no harm in it at all.

Calm down, it's just a harmless little exercise. I'm more just curious to see how it goes, and I'm certainly not advocating basing trades on this prediction (for lack of a better term).

We all know bitcoin, the first phenomenon of its kind, is by its very nature unpredictable. Charts and whimsical predictions just allow us to think we have some measure of control over something that is inherently uncontrollable. Where's the harm in that?

Normally I would accept technical patterns as good indicators or hints at least of what to expect. But in the case of bitcoin i'm afraid it makes no sense
at all! especially at this stage of it's development. We are driven by events and news not trend.  Adoption rates create a trend in and of themselves, but there are far too many wild card factors moving this market to predict, not least of which:

a) Governments accouncements for or against bitcoin.

b) Mt.Gox type negative events (I'm personally expecting BTC-e.com to be a repeat of that, they are so cloaked in secrecy it stuns me anyone would ever send money there!.)

c) Retail adoption rates. This is accelerating, and the competition is hotting up in that space as the bitpays of this world try to establish themselves as no 1.

d) Global financial market, as it melts bitcoin goes up, try predicting when THAT will happen!

e) The emergence of regulation for bitcoin companies.

f) Remitance adoption, probably the biggest short term driver as this is the one that is so tangible and doable now. At the moment only 0.02% of the world are using bitcoin!

g) Individual country issues (Argentina debt default for example) citizens piling into bitcoin to prevent a repeat of previous collapse there.

The list goes on and on... and you want to try and predict with a chart??

Regardless, if a peak does occur in the next 30 days and follows past trends, it seems it will be slightly less than the anticipated $5000 and more around the $3000 mark.

Assuming the run-up velocity is similar to past trends, the overall log-scale chart also has us hitting a peak of around $3000 now as well.

Still, based on where we are sitting now, I don't think anyone would be complaining about a $3000 peak in the next 30 days...

Thanks for the positive comments.

Here are the updated charts.

I have put the zoomed-in-current-vs-past-trend chart in date form and adjusted our current trend (by 3 days) so that the peak now occurs at the latest allowable date (based on past data), which is 235 days from the last peak. Coincidentally, if the price does follow this trajectory, the end of the relatively stagnant period we are in now seems to occur on the 27th June (the day of the auction).

Again, this is all just speculation (obv) so this could all very well be entirely wrong. Not long to wait to find out though.

Maybe the internet-street phase will come before, with ebay leading.
Then wallst will gain confidence and the rest will follow as you say.