Topic: The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug) - page 5. (Read 14215 times)
I say 1k before September. June, definitely not 1k. 2-3k before January 1st of next year.
Today was a slight deviation from the meteoric rise that we are all hoping for. I think this will just end up being a slight road bump since we have been basically flooded with good news all month...
JulieFig, thanks for the graph!
You gave me a reason to HODL my Bitcoins!
You gave me a reason to HODL my Bitcoins!
I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).
That's one helluva coincidence! If I were a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd say that the FBI timed it on purpose. So that, ummm, .... I dunno why. But someday someone will figure it out and they'll make a movie about it starring Nicholas Cage entitled "National Treasure 18" and at the end, they will dig up the QR code with all of Satoshi's bitcoins out from under the United States Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC.
EDIT: and it will turn out that Satoshi Nakamoto is none other than Ben Franklin who foresaw the Internet in 1770's, invented bitcoin, etched the QR code on the back of the Constitution for safekeeping, and instructed the Illuminati to unleash bitcoin and save the world when it needed it most.
A bitcoin saved is a bitcoin earned. That movie sounds amazing!
Great graph! We seem to be right on schedule. 
looking forward to an exciting month or two!
looking forward to an exciting month or two!You're a "Senior Member" now - congratulations! We need more high-ranked uber-bulls like you
.Yeah, grats:-)
Uber bulls make me happy, i always feel like a millionaire stuck in the past before being a millionaire
I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).
That's one helluva coincidence! If I were a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), I'd say that the FBI timed it on purpose. So that, ummm, .... I dunno why. But someday someone will figure it out and they'll make a movie about it starring Nicholas Cage entitled "National Treasure 18" and at the end, they will dig up the QR code with all of Satoshi's bitcoins out from under the United States Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC.
EDIT: and it will turn out that Satoshi Nakamoto is none other than Ben Franklin who foresaw the Internet in 1770's, invented bitcoin, etched the QR code on the back of the Constitution for safekeeping, and instructed the Illuminati to unleash bitcoin and save the world when it needed it most.
No need to start worrying yet. We still seem to be following the trend of the last two run-ups quite nicely.
I actually adjusted the days at which the peaks occurred for the April and November bubbles (by 3 days at most) because then even the flash crashes on the run-up lined up! If we are where I think we are, we are just experiencing the small dip before the rally (which was coincidentally related to SR for the last run-up as well).
In fact, some more experienced traders on these forums don't seem to have been comfortable with stating that it's the start of a rally because we haven't had 'the crash before the rally' yet. Perhaps they will be satisfied with this one?
edit: Each datapoint is based on the Bitstamp close price. Since we don't yet know what the day holds in store for us, I have conservatively estimated a close of $560, just to see how it lines up on the plots. Even with that low a value, we still seem to be on track for a peak between $3000 and $5000.
Another plot for those who are interested...
This new plot is really good. As data are displayed only on 100 days, it is easier to see if we are still on track or not.
If you are interested, i could help to make a simple website to display these two wonderful charts.
If there is interest, then absolutely! Are you sure this will not eat into too much of your time?
We're running out of time to get over 1000...
Still possible though, it should go fast this time
Still possible though, it should go fast this time
Out of time?
we should consolidate a bit, double a bit, consolidate some more and THEN take off
We're running out of time to get over 1000...
Still possible though, it should go fast this time
Still possible though, it should go fast this time
"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "
So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR
It's been 194 days since the peak on November 30th of last year. So that would mean July 23th at the latest for the next peak (or we create an outlier)
maybe it will take longer because of the amounts going up (and user base increasement).
The increase in adoption should have a stabilising effect.
"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "
So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR
It's been 194 days since the peak on November 30th of last year. So that would mean July 23th at the latest for the next peak (or we create an outlier)
"I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a notoriously volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin. "
So at which day after the last pick are we right now? How do you think?
BR
Nice graph OP! Thanks for posting and updating!
I Think that all of this is unrealistic, is very difficulty that the price of Bitcoin can go over 4000$ over July ! Now price is only 630$ and there is low liquidity on our market (Bitfinex, Bitstamp ecc.).
However, there is some probability that the price will go to 4000$ by the end of this years, is much possible, but the next month absolutely no !
However, there is some probability that the price will go to 4000$ by the end of this years, is much possible, but the next month absolutely no !
This seems unrealistic to all of us. Price mutliplied by ten in less than two months is just too hard to catch for human people. If everyone here were convinced the price will follow this graph, everyone would be all in btc, and this is not the case.
Hopefully, we will have an answer in less than two months.
Exactly. But there is a probability that the price will go up to 1500$ to the end of July, is not impossible, is probably (x3 respect the actual price).
however, if big investor doesn't enter to bitcoin, price will not multiply easily. Now, (for example me) I waiting the ETF of Winklevoss brother, after it, to the Saturn (not the moon, is too much near !)
I Think that all of this is unrealistic, is very difficulty that the price of Bitcoin can go over 4000$ over July ! Now price is only 630$ and there is low liquidity on our market (Bitfinex, Bitstamp ecc.).
However, there is some probability that the price will go to 4000$ by the end of this years, is much possible, but the next month absolutely no !
However, there is some probability that the price will go to 4000$ by the end of this years, is much possible, but the next month absolutely no !
This seems unrealistic to all of us. Price mutliplied by ten in less than two months is just too hard to catch for human people. If everyone here were convinced the price will follow this graph, everyone would be all in btc, and this is not the case.
Hopefully, we will have an answer in less than two months.
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