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Topic: The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug) - page 7. (Read 14215 times)

legendary
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  Huh

Why would you want to buy two houses  Huh

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.

Agree, but perhaps someone would like to ask about the situation in Greece. There are 300k unsold houses and another 300k mortgaged ones but in the red (the loan is not being paid)!!!

 Shocked

People with mortgages are required to pay at the price they bought plus interest etc, while the value of their property has plummeted by 50% or even more!!! Not much of an investment there!!!
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
I don´t know what im going to do. I need to sell my btc to pay bills, but i know it will keep on rising and im going to lose money, but i sell or i sleep in the streets.

Hey, I had to sell some this month too in order to pay my car payment.  If you gotta, you gotta.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100

TERA did not think we would see a run up in November either.  If anything, we should take this as very bullish news that confirms our suspicions!  Wink

See thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3165590
I just added that chart to my TARA-bear macro.
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10



Wink (just made this meme for fun)

I'm sure this will get picked up and tossed around soon enough Wink.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500



Wink (just made this meme for fun)
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001




I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

TERA did not think we would see a run up in November either.  If anything, we should take this as very bullish news that confirms our suspicions!  Wink

See thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3165590
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10


I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.
TERA seems to think like this:



My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
TERA needs to take anti-depressants.

Nice finds!
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100




I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.
TERA seems to think like this:

The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012.  Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.



The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.  



My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
TERA needs to take anti-depressants.
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10



I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.

In fact, we will know within 10-15 days, at which point the price will hit the red velocity trendline. In all of its price history, Bitcoin has never accelerated faster than this line which means if we don't start going up at or before it, the July 'bubble' is a pipe dream.

edit: ...assuming the bubble peak is at $4,900.

Exciting times ahead...
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
keep updating brah, i am interested. great posts
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10




I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.

Thanks - I can keep updating it if anyone is interested.

TERA seems to think we will not see a July run-up... good news is we will know either way within a month's time.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
Having two houses on different hemispheres gives you permanent summer or winter, whatever creams your twinkie Wink
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  Huh

Why would you want to buy two houses  Huh

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?

from a historical basis, yes houses are a good investment. should anyone hold anything INSTEAD of the other? no thats not what I'm saying. but the reasons one would want to have two houses is fairly obvious. its one of the most reliable investments there is i believe, even taking the 'housing crisis' of america into consideration, people with houses are certainly better off than people with just one house, if you actually own them. theres a large number of extremely wealthy people in the world who owe it all to buying real estate. if done right, it can do pretty well. maybe not early adoption of bitcoin well, but its nice and stable and some people like stable performers over volatility.
legendary
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  Huh

Why would you want to buy two houses  Huh

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"

No, it's not!

Are you saying that it's better to hold houses than bitcoins?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  Huh

Why would you want to buy two houses  Huh

this is like asking "why would you want to be rich?"
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 1037
CEO @ Stake.com and Primedice.com




I definitely see the pattern but , will it continue , who knows. I would not base my trading based on this. But its rly interesting.
Lets just hope this rly gets true. Well done for this great graph.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  Huh

Why would you want to buy two houses  Huh
So you won't live in stereotype? Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500

no Explanation needed
sorry, Insertion of Image doesn`t work
legendary
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Now I don't know whether to buy a house next year - or wait until we hit $100K and buy two.  Huh

Why would you want to buy two houses  Huh
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
Agreed, seems to be in line with other predictions, not really new information, but verifies old information.

The next bubble will likely either  confirm or deny many of our theories. Altough I hope it confirms them, as that would make bitcoin very predictable to people who know their shit.

I then isolated these peaks and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow their own exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,900 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,300!

One last interesting point of note... the run-up to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in a similar time-frame?.....


Great observation !!

If 4900 is not achieved in next peak, instead BTC manages to reach just 2500 $,
then 26300 $ target should be decreased exponentially ?

That would mean bitcoin would grow MUCH slower than it did before, and that it's reaching the stages of late adoption. Unlikely to happen this soon. We are nowhere near full adoption yet.
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