The famous writer, philosopher and trader Nassim Taleb came up with the concept of "Black Swans".
A "Black Swan" is a very unlikely event, the occurrence of which is very difficult for an outside observer to predict, and which radically changes the world around us.
Nassim Taleb specialized in betting on "Black Swans". He studied them seriously and used this knowledge to profit.
"Black Swans" can also be used in gambling. I mean (primarily) sports betting. "Black Swans" are hard to find, but betting on such events brings a very large win (due to increasing coefficients).
Therefore, it is a very interesting and effective game strategy.
Nassim Taleb theorized about Black Swans, but I don't believe he profited from them? Plus Black Swans are "very unlikely events" like you posted, then trying to find them, and betting on them to happen would be a very low probability of being profitable. It will require a generous amount of luck to win one bet out of many in my opinion.
Nassim Taleb used a certain psychological nuance. People perceive unlikely events as an event that will never happen (this is how human psychology works). But it's not. An event with low probability is a probable event. Such events happen quite often.
Bets on events with a low probability involve the use of high odds when paying out winnings. A big win can pay off all previously made bets.
Psychologically, people prefer to avoid losing. They are more afraid of losing than they want to win.
In his books, Nassim Taleb suggested actively looking for Black Swans.
This game strategy is not a passive strategy - it is an active game strategy.
It's not that simple. Yes in theory it sounds nice, but for us plebs how can we use that in practice, both in trading and gambling? Give me your suggestions of which Black Swan events that you believe might happen, and let us observe if they will be profitable bets/trades or not.
Plus it's very hard to trust Nassim Taleb, a book writer/book seller, if he doesn't show any track record in trading. He has been in support of BSV too. Yes, Craig Wright's BSV.
It is not easy to see black swans ...
It is even more difficult to react quickly and take the right actions (adequate in the current situation). First of all, you need to be observant. A classic example of a Black Swan is a tsunami. How can a tsunami be predicted? Before the wave destroys the coastal city, the coastal seabed will be completely exposed. First, the sea leaves, and then a tsunami arises. The "Black Swan" is preceded by strange unusual events. If you see something that has never been before, then the Black Swan is coming soon.
However, it is not easy to make money on the Black Swan, because the standard causal relationships (built according to the old patterns) do not work in the Black Swan situation. But if you were able to foresee the onset of the Black Swan, then it makes sense to act outside the box, this increases the chance of winning.
At its core, the Black Swan is an event that breaks the balance. There are strong vibrations in the system.