Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 319. (Read 100205 times)

My Picks and what I think would happen in some fights on the UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot

Arman Tsarukyan VS Mateusz Gamrot

Stake odds for this fight are 1.36 for Tsarukyan while 3.20 for Gamrot, and For this fight, it can be a very close fight but for me, Arman Tsarukyan is very well-rounded, he can finish on stand-up or on the ground and a notable fight was against Islam Makhachev that it was a great fight to watch Tsarukyan switching stance on Makhachev, on the 1st round both fighters done a mistake but Makhachev really is fast to have seen that, I say Tsarukyan did a great job defending and countering Makhachev but to no extend Islam Makhachev has a better technique, but against Mateusz Gamrot I think Arman Tsurukyan has a better view with wrestling and grappling on the ground, so my pick is definitely Arman Tsarukyan,

Neil Magny VS Shavkat Rakhmonov

Stake odds for this fight are 4.20 for Magny while 1.23 for Rakhmonov, Well, I don't really don't like Neil Magny and I really don't like him either, but surely this man has good striking, ground and pound game, and has good wrestling as well, and I think this is a good chance for Shavkat Rakhmonov to test his endurance and if he can beat Magny, but for me, I think Shavkat Rakhmonov is an exception, and I surely always compares him to Khamzat Chimaev, because of their style, and from that even though Neil Magny has some advantage over the experience, I am pretty confident over Shavkat Rakhmonov, so my pick is Shavkat Rakhmonov,

Thiago Moisés VS Christos Giagos

Stake odds for this fight are 1.39 for Moises, while 3.05 for Giagos, for this fight I say Moises has better striking and can surely have a decent Wrestling as well, while his opponent Giagos may have decent stand-up, but I think Moises, can execute it perfectly if he found the right distance to shot his punches because I think Moises can sure fight smartly with technical striking, so my pick will be Thiago Moises,

Umar Nurmagomedov VS Nate Maness

Stake Odds for this fight are 7.40 for Maness while 1.09 for Nurmagomedov, clearly many see this as a onesided fight base on the odds favorite, but I think this is a good test for Umar Nurmagomedov, Nate Maness has the striking capability and got power in his punches but with Nurmagomedov, the distance will be crucial because Umar is kicking in his offense, he got a blinding speed on his kicks, but when the fight goes to the ground this could be highly advantageous for Umar Nurmagomedov, so my pick will be Umar Nurmagomedov,

Sportsbet is offering lot of options for betting on this fight, Umar win by submission with boosted odds is currently over 2.13, and decision has higher odds around 2.40.
Other good option for betting is that fight will go to distance or not, but this is three round fight so maybe Umar ends it in second round.
He usually finish fights in first or second round if they end early.
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/mma/ufc/ufc-fight-night-tsarukyan-vs-gamrot/maness-nate-vs-nurmagomedov-umar-62acc2a5ef0375be62db2371

Yeah, submission or KO at 1.66 I mean that's still pretty bad odds. My bookie isn't currently offering specifically submission, which I imagine would be around the 1.80-2.00 mark? I don't like going for submission only though, generally most fighters have a decent standard of BJJ. Especially, on the three rounders. Though, it's Umar we're talking about who has a great track record.

That's ultimately the reason I went with some of the underdogs. I do think it's going to be a night of finishes, and good fights though.

What makes me doubt betting on him is that he is coming from two lost fights and both of them with stoppage, KO and rear naked choke.
I didn't watch Christos Giagos fights but he has slight reach advantage and I think he could give hard time to his opponent.

I would not touch those odd on Umar win, but maybe some special bet would pay much better, like win by his special weapon - rear naked choke.
My hope is that Maness would perform at his best and surprise him with his longer arms reach.
Overall this is not easy fight card to predict for me at all.

Umar, and Shavkat Rakhmonov would be my favourites, but the only issue with that is the bookies know it too. The odds aren't worth it. I'd say including Umar on a multi would be a good idea, as in my mind it would be a massive shock if he did end up losing here. Shavkat on the other hand, isn't as certain for me, despite probably taking it pretty easily.

I've been impressed by what I've seen from him in his last couple of fights. Obviously, not counting the one where he got choked out very quickly . Other than that fight, even when he's losing he isn't a long way out from winning. Usually competitive. Plus, Bautista will probably be looking for the knock out, and Kelleher I think will be that tricky self that'll just be able to avoid those bombs that Bautista is known to throw.

Yup..  Moises should be better on the feet and the ground.  It's just remembering him making Joel Alvarez looking like effing  Anderson Silva out there worries me.


I feel like he's going to keep pressuring Bautista, grinding him by cage and spam take downs the whole fight.  Kelleher could get a decent amount of control time and make it really close.  And he has an over hand right that could rock Bautista.

So yeah...  Official weigh ins live.  It started a little over an hour ago.

UFC on ESPN 38:  Tsarukyan vs Gamrot Official Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlgKcPUO2Rk

Actually, I am cool with Thiago Moises, but his opponent really is intimidating, I know intimidation can not hurt anyone but don't let it go into your head, because that intimidation can surely also cause a win, for Christos Giagos but still I am going with Moises here I will put my picks tomorrow pretty much busy lately, but you got yourself a decent lottery picks there so I really wish you good luck to that,


Nice picks aswell, but unlike you, I don't have any idea about the main event I will get my picks and post them here tomorrow, but for now, I think Shavkat Rakhmonov will get this done easily, I think Rakhmonov is underrated for his opponent but not underestimating Neil Magny, but I think Magny doesn't really have what it takes to take on Rakhmonov, he is like Makhachev but a humble one, and I think he is a fighter with the same caliber as that, so many often compare the two, but for that one Rakhmanov has the advantage,

Umar Nurmagomedov will be my pick aswell, I mean even though you think that he is not champion material, this fight will be an easy one for him, and for me Umar has it takes to get even higher he just needs to take the advice of his brother Khabib, and his level of wrestling should not be taken lightly, he sure wrestles with the best so I am sure those kicks can also be deceiving to his opponent if you all know what I am talking about,

Well, I don't think I need the weigh ins for most of my predictions. Feeling confident with the underdogs this week.

Here's the predictions:

Arman Tsarukyan
Gamrot definitely has a chance here, but I think Tsarukyan will get the job done.

Shavkat Rakhmonov
Should be a relatively easy fight, don't think his opponent has what it takes. Would have to be a knock out to lose this I think.

Alan Baudot
Thiago Moisés
Umar Nurmagomedov
Rodolfo Vieira
Carlos Ulberg
TJ Brown
Raulian Paiva
Cody Durden
Brian Kelleher
Jinh Yu Frey

Kelleher fight is going to be absolutely crazy I think. His opponent going into the fight as a favourite, and probably rightfully so. I just think Kelleher can be a tricky fighter at times, and will get it done. That's probably my fight of the night there.

I got Moises at my top ticket too.  But I feel like he'll be the pie shitter of the week.  Another one could be TJ Brown if his cardio doesn't during the third round if it does reach the third.

Anyway here's my lottery ticket for the event.  Wish me luck.  Lol.

Nurmagomedov - Rakhmonov - Moises 1.90
Brown - Tskauryan - Ulberg at 7.68
Paiva - Curtis - Buys at 45
Baudot -  Frey at 195
Kelleher at 265

Took chances on Paiva and Kelleher as underdogs.  Kinda kicking myself for putting Ulberg on top of Curtis.  Dunno..  At the time I was back and forth between him and Vieira.

If I do put a bet on, it'll be a small one with most of the underdogs which have good odds. Apart from the main event, I can see most of the underdogs having a good chance. However, I might just save my money to bet against O'Malley in a couple of weeks.

I'll get my predictions out later once I've seen the weigh ins, and all that good stuff, I won't be putting a ton of research in on this one though, as I'm not overly interested. I'll be watching it, since I do think it's going to be a competitive card. We've been spoiled the last few weeks, with the fast knock outs, but I generally think this card will be more competitive, but as fun.

My early leans haven't changed all that much if at all. If I do go on to bet, I'll probably include the O'Malley fight in the accumulator despite the risk of it being cancelled, just because I honestly believe he's going to lose quite badly in that fight. Plus, good odds to go against him.

I like Moses aswell and pretty much he is the favorite here, but I have seen Martin Day has potential aswell, but not that much, surely I am just really in love with fighters that are good at kicking but I see Thiago Moses as the well-rounded fighter here,

And just like Martin Day, Umar Nurmagomedov is really obsessed with kicks and he is really excellent in doing what he loves to do, but pretty much I think he is well-rounded as well against Nate Maness, he surely can wrestle when the occasion occurs, I really love this card aswell, there are so many good picks that I will post here soon, before the anticipated fight on the UFC 276,


Shavkat Rakhmonov is my favorite fighter here as well, and surely he is one humble dude, but when he is inside the cage he will surely become a beast, but what I really love about Shavkat Rakhmonov is he tends not to rush things, and right now he is still at the ranked 15 of the Welterweight division, he just loves not rushing things, very not similar with Khamzat Chimaev that is on the move and wants to fight now even though he just finished his recent fight a week ago, and yes that will be one hell of a fight to watch Shavkat Rakhmonov VS Khamzat Chimaev, but I really don't rush in seeing that now, I want Chimaev to take the belt 1st before these two fight,

Many fans saw this as well and were also asking why the ref didn't stop the fight. It was later explained that Jiri was actually congratulating and encouraging Glover with those taps. Goddard (ref) even warned him that it's a risky game. The ref saw that he wasn't in a real danger to be submitted.

About his title defense, Jiri already stated his first priority is a Glover rematch and, if he retains the title, he'll go after Jan.

Shavkat Rakhmonov has a really good record till now. I think he will not have any problem getting the win against Neil Magny. And a really good fight for him is going to be Khamzat Chimaev. If we are talking about how he is going to eat his opponent, I think he might go for biting off his opponent's ear like Mike Tyson  


Regards

Duke

I am a barbarian, I will be watching this event to see how Shavkat Rakhmonov gonna eat his opponent I am not very interested in other fighters, only looking forward to see what an animal UFC gonna make from Shavkat. I think one day he is gonna meet Chimaev and it will be clear record vs clear record fight. Cant wait to see a real test of Shavkat, as in two days he will easily run over Magny.

Moses is one of my main bets on this fight card, and Umar Nurmagomedov to win against Nate Maness but this bet has very low betting odds.
I am not so excited and main event maybe because it's not big names, but both of them have amazing MMA record with only one or two lost fights.
For me this fight card is just a warm up for next UFC 276 event Adesanya vs Cannonier.

Sportsbet have one more Multi Master Challenge so make predictions and win free bets if you are good enough
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-on-espn-38-multi-master-challenge-saturday-5403491

That fight was really bonkers, it surely gives me chills every time I am rewatching the replays, and the man I feel sorry for Teixeira I think he needs another shot, after the title defense of Jiri Prochazka, a rematch is what I want right now, and even Dana White was really happy seeing this two duke it all out a befitting main event and befitting in giving bonuses, just what Dana White have said, but for sure I am still be rooting for Jiri Prochazka and I think he has train for wrestling now because of this fight,


I agree that was a very slick move getting out from that and from Glover Teixeira that is very dangerous to the ground, I think Prochazka escape from an arm triangle lock by Glover Teixeira with a Counter of his own, I think there is no name for that escape that Jiri Prochazka did but it was really a slick move and Prochazka really knows a little BJJ to escape the Arm Triangle like that,

Well Glover really gasses out and we can not blame him, and maybe because of his age he is more likely to drain his tank down because of those ground moves and it really goes the distance, but a super great fight to watch in my opinion, and I think Prochazka really had a hard time-fighting Glover Teixeira and no doubt about it, Glover Teixeira even with his age he sure can kick some younger fighters on that division, proving his worth as a champion,

I had him leading too.  Haven't watched it again tho.  But if Teixeira didn't gas out he'd def win it.  Prochazka has a lot of holes in his game.  His athleticism and youth won him the match.  Imagine if Teixeira was 5 years younger, he could school him in the cage.  So yeah..  I hope next in line for a title shot would be another old vet in Blachowicz.  The 205 champ will def have another tough one imho.

Edit:  Here are some tapes to watch just to know more about how these guys fight in the cage.

UFC Free Fight:  Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZHzWMqPJ2w

UFC Free Fight:  Mateusz Gamrot vs Scott Holtzman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0r4V3Iv3d8g

Edit:  And here's the Multi Master.

UFC on ESPN 38 Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-on-espn-38-multi-master-challenge-saturday-5403491

I might need a rewatch, but I honestly thought it was 2-2 going into the 5th round. Jiri looked sluggish, and was starting to get hit with some big shots. I honestly thought up until the final minute Glover was winning that fight. It wasn't a massive amount in it, but he was winning that 5th round for me.

I believe Glover said in an interview after the fight he felt like crying knowing he was ahead. I think Jiri would make the adjustments needed for the second fight, so I don't think it would be as entertaining or close as the first. Although, I wouldn't mind watching it again. Not sure what's next for Glover though.

I'll have to watch it again, I don't recall seeing them.

I would consider that Glover took first and fourth rounds, and Prochazka second and third. That is my imho. However, on official score cards, Teixeira was leading.



Even if he would lose fifth round, he would still be a winner. I would say that it was a very close fight. Half a minute and Teixera would be still a chamption. I would even be glad to see a Teixera vs Prochazka 2, UFC likes to do series of fights after all.

What do you think about those funny taps that Jiri made several times? I have counted 3 of them. If a fight judges wasnt experienced much, he would have stopped the fight and call Teixeira a winner.

I like Glover, proper work horse. I felt he had it, until he didn't. That's against a younger guy who looks in very good shape. The fight was a good one, it pretty much had everything. Big hits, good grappling, wrestling, and at one point Prochazka did a very slick move to get out of control on the ground, I'm not sure if it has a name, it probably does. He used his arm as leverage, and I just remember it being very slick at the time.

I felt Glover gassed out though. I mean Jiri was also gassed, but Glover just melted in those last few minutes. Well, actually come to think of it, the fight was a weird one. For the whole fourth round I thought Jiri was gassing, because he looked sloppy, his hands were down, and finally Glover was managing to hit him with some big shots. Then he pulls out that second wind in the last minute or so, which ultimately won him the fight.

Definitely my fight of the year so far. Also, don't want to see him retire, but as he says usually after the fight, he still looks good so he'll carry on.