The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 456.

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: tokeweed on June 06, 2021, 10:20:10 AM

Wow none of the fighters in my parlay won. Rofl. What’s weird was Baeza. He was doing really well the first round. He got Ponz hurting with the leg kicks but then faded around the 1 minute mark at the second round and gave the fight away.

6 underdogs won tonight. Wish I had time to take a deep dive in these prelim bouts. It’s where the value is.

Results: https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/77692-ufc-fight-night

I think that is OK you may win some and you may lose some, It is really hard to predict in just one glance we need deeper research in reassuring who's going to take a victory, and sometimes even with deeper research there are times that it may end up the other way around because it will tend to many things lack training, not feeling well, or have something that may happen, there are some small details that so intricate you couldn't see it,

In the Rozentruik VS Sakai case, I have surely seen that Jairzinho Rozentruik had a slight upper hand but I have gone with Sakai because I think there might be some unexpected things that may happen, and looking at the profit you get when I pursue betting with Sakai, Well, there is something in life that you can not really see the big picture.

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UFC 263

Date: June 12, 2021
Main Card: SUN, JUN 13 / 5:00 AM EEST
Prelims: SUN, JUN 13 / 5:00 AM EEST
Early Prelims: SUN, JUN 13 / 1:00 AM EEST

Venue: Glendale, Arizona, United States

Main card (ESPN)
Middleweight: Israel Adesanya (c) vs. Marvin Vettori
Flyweight: Deiveson Figueiredo (c) vs. Brandon Moreno
Welterweight: Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz
Welterweight: Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad
Light Heavyweight: Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill

Preliminary card (ESPN+)
Lightweight: Drew Dober vs. Brad Riddell
Light Heavyweight: Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart
Women's Flyweight: Lauren Murphy vs. Joanne Calderwood
Featherweight: Movsar Evloev vs Hakeem Dawodu

Early preliminary card (ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass)
Women's Bantamweight: Pannie Kianzad vs. Alexis Davis
Lightweight: Frank Camacho vs. Matt Frevola
Featherweight: Chase Hooper vs. Steven Peterson
Lightweight: Fares Ziam vs. Luigi Vendramini
Heavyweight: Carlos Felipe vs. Jake Collier

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_263

First 3 fights in main card are worth watching !
Reminder: Adesanya - Vettori first fight was one of the toughest fight for Israel. Interesting to see how he is prepared right now. Nate Diaz is back after 2 year holiday

TheNineClub

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Quote from: tokeweed on June 06, 2021, 10:20:10 AM

Wow none of the fighters in my parlay won. Rofl. What’s weird was Baeza. He was doing really well the first round. He got Ponz hurting with the leg kicks but then faded around the 1 minute mark at the second round and gave the fight away.

6 underdogs won tonight. Wish I had time to take a deep dive in these prelim bouts. It’s where the value is.

Results: https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/77692-ufc-fight-night

Prelims are such a hard thing to predict. They either have two up-and-coming fighters and that is a tough one to call, or they have a washed-up fighter and an up-and-coming fighter, and that's nt that hard to predict, but the odds are usually shit. I never got myself to try it.

tokeweed

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Wow none of the fighters in my parlay won. Rofl. What’s weird was Baeza. He was doing really well the first round. He got Ponz hurting with the leg kicks but then faded around the 1 minute mark at the second round and gave the fight away.

6 underdogs won tonight. Wish I had time to take a deep dive in these prelim bouts. It’s where the value is.

Results: https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/77692-ufc-fight-night

YuginKadoya

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Walt Harris VS Marcin Tybura

Pretty sure when Tybura gets on Harris back Tybura will get dangerous if he can not get on the clinch the hammering punch will surely do it, well I think that Walt Harris had to miscalculate everything, he nearly got Tybura on their first clash and I am saying to myself Walt Harris is one bulky dude and I am seeing the power of Harris on that clash but Tybura turns the table when he takedown Harris and by then Walt Harris just evading and changing pace with his aggressiveness, that is when Tybura gets on another takedown that causes Marcin Tybura winning with pounding Harris to the ground with a hammer punch.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik VS Augusto Sakai

Well, we can see the tenacity of Rozenstruik he is always in the middle of the ring and always had the upper hand while Augusto Sakai is keeping his distance, when seeing this scene I know sure that Rozenstruik is in the advantage he surely has the higher ground, I may have lost betting for Sakai but from that fight, it really doesn't matter because I am OK with the Co-main fight to win, Jairzinho Rozenstruik truly has the tenacity within him and he showed it in this fight.

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Quote from: notblox1 on June 05, 2021, 02:37:47 PM

Paulo Costa is on the road to get kicked out of UFC after he refused to fight against Jared Cannonier saying that he never signed a fight and tha he wants to get paid more to fight.
Kevin Gastelum will replaced him and he will fight against Cannonier on August 21, and after this refusal and Israel Adesanya kicking his ass for title fight he will have hard time finding someone to fight withhim.

I have seen this update in social media where Paulo Costa himself said that he is not willing to fight Jared Cannonier and he thinks he deserves a title shot next Cheesy

.

I am not placing a lot of bets in the event but still since the main event is a Heavyweight bout Augusto Sakai and Jairzinho Rozenstruik i am not expecting the fight to go the distance and my other pick will be Marcin Tybura and Miguel Baeza .

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Paulo Costa is on the road to get kicked out of UFC after he refused to fight against Jared Cannonier saying that he never signed a fight and tha he wants to get paid more to fight.
Kevin Gastelum will replaced him and he will fight against Cannonier on August 21, and after this refusal and Israel Adesanya kicking his ass for title fight he will have hard time finding someone to fight withhim.

Few hours left until start of UFC event so get ready

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1401176992964296708

tokeweed

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Judging just from the face offs, I think fight of the night or at least performance of the night will be Baeza vs Ponz or Baeza. It’s his time. This kid could be at the top 10 by next year.

UFC Vegas 28: Face offs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8lJx6C2jU4

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: Welsh on June 04, 2021, 08:07:30 AM

Sometimes it just seems the luck of the draw, and stylistic differences. I've been convinced that x fighter would batter the other one, and the complete opposite has happened numerous times. The thing is, everything might look like its perfect, and a easy bet, but we as fans often don't see the nitty, and gritty training sessions, where their motivation is the driving force on why they are successful. For example, if you gave me, a nobody a chance for the title, I'm probably going to be more motivated, and probably perform better than if you put me in with a sparring match against Jon Jones.

So, although that's a extreme example, the motivating factors behind the fight are sometimes hard to judge. Then its different styles you have to consider, for example a predominately stand up fighter will sometimes not perform well standing up, and actually get out striked by a wrestler simply due to them being cagey, and looking to prevent the take down. There's just so much to consider, that I usually just go with my gut feeling, and only sometimes do I actually go in depth. Think like big title fights.

There are many aspects that I am looking at but you are right none of that matters when the other fighter won, sometimes picking up a fighter you think would have win ends up losing and you are right it really isn't bad to go with your gut feeling and just like you I am going with my gut feeling aswell, and if Sakai would lose in this fight I am OK with it and move on because I haven't put my life savings on just one fight.

I have seen the weigh-ins and all fighters look great Augustus Sakai seems not that fat and not that slim looks very average in my opinion, While Jairzinho Rozenstruik looks menacing it seems that he hasn't gained weight and I think that is a big plus.

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Good news for UFC Fight Night 189 is that all fights are confirmed after weigh-ins and I am hoping there will be no late cancelation in next few days.
I am going for Rozenstruik win in main event, and Marcin Tybura in co-iman event because he has advantage in all areas, but I am not so sure about other fights.
Roman Dolidze has big reach advantage, better striking accuracy, better takedowns stats and I think he will dominate Laureano Staropoli.

So here are my picks so far without more explanations:
Rozenstruik
Tybura
Dolidze
Todorovic
Sean Woodson

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Quote from: TheNineClub on June 04, 2021, 02:25:07 AM

Quote from: notblox1 on June 03, 2021, 03:49:23 PM

Before making any bets and prediction for upcoming UFC Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai event check out video interviews from most of the fighters on this fight card.
It's not easy to predict winner for main event and odds are similar but Rozenstruik is slight favorite and I would give him small advantage to win in this fight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpLi2K7Uwu4&list=PLd6a8WJ3Y1cnhizzolyeBfwD-E3r0heY3

If nothing then because it's HW and that's always a coin toss IMHO. I have stoped betting on HW because it only takes one punch, one swing, one graze, and all you educated predictions go out of the window. It's just not worth it.

Yeah. IIRC, the last HW fight I followed that this actually happened was the Lewis vs. Blaydes fight. It looked easy to predict who is going to win because almost everything points out to a Blaydes dominant victory. The good thing though is that majority acknowledges Lewis KO power could change the fight in an instant.

tokeweed

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^ Ferguson is kinda old now. He’s 37.. For the lower weight classes, that’s a wee bit over the hill now. He’ll prolly have a couple of good fights in him vs lower competiton tho. But to go for another title run, I don’t think so.

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Quote from: Welsh on June 04, 2021, 05:01:59 AM

I tend not to put too much weight, on the actual weigh ins or how they conduct themselves in the press conference. I've done it before, and usually it means nothing. Even recently with Ferguson I thought he looked good leading up to the fight with Dariush, and that didn't turn out all too well. The only time which I actually consider the weigh in is when someone misses weight, as that usually indicates a bad weight cut, and they couldn't quite do it.

I do agree with this as some of the fighters looks really weak and we will never expect them to fight that well depending on the looks but they end up winning the bout and it was especially evident when Conor McGregor was fighting at 145 pounds, all his weigh ins looks really bad and a few times i placed a bet against him thinking there is no way he is going to recover from that weight cut but he ended up winning all of his matches in that division.
Tony Ferguson was on a loosing streak but he was confident and i expecting him to return to his winning ways if he ever wanted to compete for the title again and now that window is closed.

tokeweed

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^ Yup and the stats don’t really matter. Like if some fighter has a high TDD percentage but if you look into their opponents fought, they’re mostly strikers. And MMA math doesn’t work... Like if fighter A beat fighter B and fighter B beat fighter C, it doesn’t automatically mean fighter A def beats fighter C.

Weigh ins will be live in 20 mins or so.

UFC Fight Night: Sakai vs Roz - Weigh ins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jg3JQ-4wRaQ

Edit: My parlay of the event: Sakai, Harris and Baeza at 10.17 at Stake.

Welsh

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Sometimes it just seems the luck of the draw, and stylistic differences. I've been convinced that x fighter would batter the other one, and the complete opposite has happened numerous times. The thing is, everything might look like its perfect, and a easy bet, but we as fans often don't see the nitty, and gritty training sessions, where their motivation is the driving force on why they are successful. For example, if you gave me, a nobody a chance for the title, I'm probably going to be more motivated, and probably perform better than if you put me in with a sparring match against Jon Jones.

So, although that's a extreme example, the motivating factors behind the fight are sometimes hard to judge. Then its different styles you have to consider, for example a predominately stand up fighter will sometimes not perform well standing up, and actually get out striked by a wrestler simply due to them being cagey, and looking to prevent the take down. There's just so much to consider, that I usually just go with my gut feeling, and only sometimes do I actually go in depth. Think like big title fights.

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: Welsh on June 04, 2021, 05:01:59 AM

Yeah, I tend not to put too much weight, on the actual weigh ins or how they conduct themselves in the press conference. I've done it before, and usually it means nothing. Even recently with Ferguson I thought he looked good leading up to the fight with Dariush, and that didn't turn out all too well. The only time which I actually consider the weigh in is when someone misses weight, as that usually indicates a bad weight cut, and they couldn't quite do it.

Well, you are right sometimes there is not too much to it in knowing the weight of their body figure, the thing that will be noticeable here is with their skills, technique and their experience when they get on the ring, you are right that all other aspect is not important, but probably a bad weight cut is a reason for the weigh-ins if the fighter is suitable and reach that needed weight he can sure fight on the ring,

but even though we surely know all aspects of a fighter's weight, height, the things that you can surely indicate a fighter's winning condition is with their previous fights, metabolism, skills, experience, and techniques.

Welsh

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Quote from: mirdarkmattersun on June 03, 2021, 08:25:52 PM

recently come across 'Risk-Free' Bet for upcoming main event ( israel vs vettori ) , totally free money .. right ? as if israel lose in TKO , submission or any other ways , we sitll get our $50 back

I haven't looked into this current offer being offered, but generally when betting sites offer certain free bets, you can match a bet on a betting exchange, which would guarantee that you profit. The longer the odds the better. Research "Matched betting" it can see quite complex at first, but is actually quite easy to pull off. Also, its completely legal, although if caught by a betting website they might suspend your account.

Quote from: YuginKadoya on June 03, 2021, 11:46:38 PM

I am now waiting for the weigh-in to surely see his full body because I could not see his lower body in the interview, and if he sure loses weight then maybe his punching power is lessened or maybe his speed has improve but I don't know, Still betting for Sakai because I really want to risk this because just like you I also have a gut feeling about this.

Yeah, I tend not to put too much weight, on the actual weigh ins or how they conduct themselves in the press conference. I've done it before, and usually it means nothing. Even recently with Ferguson I thought he looked good leading up to the fight with Dariush, and that didn't turn out all too well. The only time which I actually consider the weigh in is when someone misses weight, as that usually indicates a bad weight cut, and they couldn't quite do it.

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Quote from: notblox1 on June 03, 2021, 03:49:23 PM

Before making any bets and prediction for upcoming UFC Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai event check out video interviews from most of the fighters on this fight card.
It's not easy to predict winner for main event and odds are similar but Rozenstruik is slight favorite and I would give him small advantage to win in this fight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpLi2K7Uwu4&list=PLd6a8WJ3Y1cnhizzolyeBfwD-E3r0heY3

If nothing then because it's HW and that's always a coin toss IMHO. I have stoped betting on HW because it only takes one punch, one swing, one graze, and all you educated predictions go out of the window. It's just not worth it.

YuginKadoya

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Quote from: Welsh on June 03, 2021, 06:03:34 PM

Quote from: YuginKadoya on June 03, 2021, 11:30:10 AM

Good conclusion with picking Rozenstruik I am pretty not sure who to pick between the two so I have gone to the Sakai who is not in favor with the odds and settle a risky bet on him,

When in doubt I always see go with the longest odds, if you absolutely want to bet on the fight. I do have a good feeling with Rozenstruik even if I do believe it will be a late round knockout if it is to come. As mentioned above, a rather slow starter, but I do think he has the power to get it done within the rounds. I might even put a 3rd round Knockout bet down depending on the odds.

It is always a smart move going with the odds, and particularly many have speculated that Rozenstruik will surely win and is the favorite right now, I don't know but I think that the fighters are getting fatter, I am just saying maybe it is because of the recent lockdown people do stay at home, but with the interview with Sakai right now I am seeing a slimmer Sakai? I am now waiting for the weigh-in to surely see his full body because I could not see his lower body in the interview, and if he sure loses weight then maybe his punching power is lessened or maybe his speed has improve but I don't know, Still betting for Sakai because I really want to risk this because just like you I also have a gut feeling about this.

mirdarkmattersun

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recently come across 'Risk-Free' Bet for upcoming main event ( israel vs vettori ) , totally free money .. right ? as if israel lose in TKO , submission or any other ways , we sitll get our $50 back

Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 456. (Read 97003 times)