Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 93. (Read 96993 times)

Here are my picks and Prediction for the fight that is happening now, for UFC Fight Night Austin

Beneil Dariush (3.30) VS Arman Tsarukyan (1.34)


For this fight, I think that Arman Tsarukyan is a greater offensive wrestler than Dariush, and like Beneil Dariush would surely scramble against him for sure, as Beneil Dariush will constantly go with engaging with wrestling but for me, Tsarukyan will have the power in controlling the fight just like Oliveira did, takedown defense is great with Arman Tsarukyan and I have seen him get into the distance while Dariush is seen getting tired on the 4th round and for sure because of his age I really don't know if he can manage to go the distance, so my pick is Arman Tsarukyan,

Jalin Turner (1.54) VS Bobby Green (2.49)[/b]


Jalin Turner is much taller than Bobby Green for sure he got the reach advantage in this fight while Bobby Green will be unpredictable in the stand-up for sure Jalin Turner has many tools in getting into Bobby Green so I assume that Green even though Turner is on short notice he can quickly get a glimpse of what he can do inside the octagon with Bobby Green because for me Jalin Turner is much faster and he like got power as well so my pick is Jalin Turner,

Clay Guida (3.60) VS Joaquim Silva (1.29)


For me, I am going with Joaquim Silva just because Clay Guida is old now, and for me, he is not explosive anymore, for sure even though Joaqui Silva will have the power and strikes to get this done, I like how Silva does have decent wrestling or ground game while I think I am doubting Guida here if he can still scramble on the ground against Turner because I think this is really obvious that it will be for Silva so my pick is Joaquim Silva,

Imho his fight is more entertaining to watch than take his fight serious and consider placing a bet. I even think he does not feel bad if he looses, as he simply like to have a fight. Guida is kind a guy who you watch and you know there will be smashed faces and blood. Not a fight like 15minutes of boring blanket on opponent, sorry, I meant control. A fight when fighter fought like they almost have fought. When they just walk, throw fake strikes, walk, then move to parter and try to find best position, then they walk again.

For sure the odds for Gilbert Burns are tempting and in addition to this Mateusz Gamrot lost to Beneil Dariush via Decision win but it was a very close match and Mateusz Gamrot defeated Arman Tsarukyan, but this is a different story and you have said that this is MMA so for sure so anything can happen, that is why it is sure many that may go and bet for Dariush and the odds are really tempting but for me, I think that Arman Tsarukyan is pretty much different for sure, and I am still liked Tsarukyan,


I have watched the fight again, (just to be sure) and Arman Tsarukyan won that fight because he knockout Gamrot in the 4th round so for sure there is a chance that he might knock out Beneil Dariush aswell, this is my take would happen in the fight,

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My bet and prediction for this fight for UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan

Beneil Dariush VS Arman Tsarukyan

The stake odds for this fight are 3.40 for Dariush and 1.36 for Tsarukyan, For this fight I think that Beneil Dariush has some advantage when it comes to wrestling and going into the ground but we can say that Arman Tsarukyan has a great takedown defense for sure for me Arman Tsarukyan is coming into the fight fresh and because he is the younger fighter he is still improving for sure, while Beneil Dariush might have defeated Mateus Gamrot for me Gamrot is different than Arman Tsarukyan and their improvements can be different,

Jalin Turner VS Bobby Green

The stake odds for this fight are 1.57 for Turner and 2.55 for Green, For this fight and many are saying that Jalin Turner can be at an advantage with the height, range, and for sure wrestling that he also has but for me, he is getting on this on short notice so for me I think Bobby Green's experience and unexpected movement might get this done and for sure his takedown defense is great, so I will be going into the veteran that is Bobby Green,

Rob Font VS Deiveson Figueiredo

The stake odds for this fight are 1.79 for Font and 2.12 for Figueiredo, In this fight, Deiveson Figueiredo is coming up the Bantamweight and this is a hard fight for Figueiredo, for me, Rob Font has the better boxing strikes, and his output and pace even though Font doesn't have the power in his strikes that long reach for sure and even though Deiveson Figueiredo has better wrestling for me he will not be very successful as Sandhagen did, because of the size difference, but for me, Rob Font has great takedown defense and that is why my pick is Rob Font,

Veronica Macedo had fought against Jamey-Lyn Horth. This is a fight in which Jamey-Lyn Horth is favorite to win the fight, with odds of 1.54, Jamey-Lyn Horth is 33 years old, she was born in Canada and has 5 years of professional career, of which in these 5 years she only managed to have 6 fights, and it's strange that after 5 years as a professional fighter she only managed to have 6 fights, luckily for her, despite having had few fights, she won in all 6 fights she had. On the other side we have Veronica Macedo who is 28 years old, she was born in Venezuela and has a 7 year professional career and in that period she had 12 fights in which she managed to obtain 7 victories and 4 defeats. In my opinion, Jamey-Lyn Horth and she will win this fight, she seems to be more consistent in recent times compared to Veronica Macedo

Wellington Turman will fight against Jared Gooden, in this fight Wellington Turman arrives as the favorite to win the fight, he is 27 years old and was born in Brazil, he has 9 years of professional career and in these 9 years of professional career he managed had 25 fights, of which he won 18 fights and lost 7 fights, but he had few victories by knockout, there were only 4 victories by knockout. on the other side we have Jared Gooden who is 29 years old and was born in the United States of America, he has been a professional fighter for 9 years, in these 9 years of his career he had 31 fights, of which he managed to win 22 fights and lost in 9 fights . he managed to have 11 victories by knockout. The bookmakers are placing Turman as the favorite probably because he is a little better than Jared when looking at the performance of the two fighters in their last fights. but I see this odds being very low

Tsarukyan is younger, faster and stronger...  Prolly better cardio too.  Dariush sightly better grappling and striking but slower and he got finished at his last fight.  The books prolly think it's gonna be something the same again.  :/  And they could be right...

Fig looked good on the scale.  I think it's in the realms of possibility that Fig finishes it would a sub. 

Anyway, here's the ceremonial weigh ins.

UFC Austin:  Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIIQgLozd78

Gastelum looked good on the scale too.  Didn't think he could make 170 again.  Man have a feeling he'll piece up Brady real good.

Tsarukyan is very consistent in his performance. Even when he loses, it's always a close fight, like the one against Gamrot, which many thought Tsarukyan was robbed (I don't). Dariush was also fairly consistent until his last fight. In the interviews, he looks confident and relaxed though.


This is a tricky bet to make as, despite good value, you're still more likely to lose it, so you don't want to go too high.

I dont know why bookmakers gave Arman Tsarukyan role of such a big favorite like odds are showing, but I think Beneil Dariush is not without chances in this fight.
This is maybe his best chance to come back after losing so easy from Charles Oliveira, and he is not getting any younger.
Figueiredo fight is also interesting and I think he is going to win against Font.

Dont forget to post your predictions in Multi Master Challenge and win rewards from Sportsbet: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-on-espn-52-multi-master-challenge-saturday-2-december-5475695

^ Honestly, I am not going to trust a fighter like him to win. Because as you said, he has a literally zebra record. It is literally like flipping a coin. I don't think I have seen any fighter have a 50-50 record like this. It is just too risky to trust him. And I honestly think that compared to him his opponent, Silva actually has a better record. And it will make more sense to actually trust Silva in this fight. But the thing is he does have a lot of experience. And since it is like flipping a coin, you never know, he might actually end up winning. But if it was me, I would have trusted Silva a lot more.

Luck plays a huge role in MMA, it's not only about skills. Conor McGregor's 13-Second KO of Jose Aldo is a great example of how luck matters. I know they are both skilled but Jose could really beat McGregor. I think even the Jon Jones can be beaten by underdog if luck strikes. But maybe this is really a very bald statement.

It doesn't work like that in UFC. While we see football matches one or two times a week, if fighters were to fight every week, people won't be interested in them. It's the rarity of their fights that make people hyped up.

If the match is 50/50 then there's lots of value for Dariush at 3.20 making it +EV and should make you money long term if you keep taking these spots.  I think the books are thinking that Dariush is getting KO'd as he did vs Charles Oliveira.  Tsakuryan very may well could but then again, MMA is such a nuanced sport that there's a larger degree of unpredictability than say..  boxing.

Anyway another interesting match up could be Sean Brady vs Gastelum.  If Gastelum looks good on the scale, he could win this one.

Clay Guida   vs Silva seems to be fight worth to watch. Guida is a unique fighter. I think I observe him fighting all my ufc-watching-career. 60+ fight already as a professional, zebra record, likes to brawn and often covers octagon with blood A perfect mix for these-two-guys-gonna-show-us-something-interesting-now kind a fight. The guys a funny record besides. 35 fight in UFC, 18 wins and 17 losses Perfect zebra record. Betting on him is like flipping a coin

Actually, I Like your choices mostly the Arman Tsarukyan, Bobby Green, and Joaquim Silva for seeing their latest fight records and stats for they will do fine with each of their opponents my only concern is Clay Guida's experience on the ground for sure if Joaquim Silva can defended all of those takedowns he can manage to control the situations and for sure I am doubting Guida's age he is now 41 years old and could anytime announce his retirement, but for sure Joaquim Silva is way younger and for sure can be stronger and faster than Guida, and could also counter his attempts going into the ground,


Actually, I hate math so for sure I will not get any formulas and computations when accessing a fight, for after seeing both fighter's previous fights I think Arman Tsarukyan had many advantages that could seem helpful in any way, but regardless of what may happen with the actual fight we don't really know for sure all we can do is to speculate and try to think of what may happen inside the octagon if the 2 fight, Islam Makhachev is a great fighter and for sure a great candidate so we can see what a fighter can do, for sure he is the Barometer to scale a fighter if what he can do with a certain fighter,


For some reason there could be a chance for Beneil Dariush to win and what can we say it is really tempting to bet on the underdog and if there could be a profitable bet that would be in betting with the underdogs for sure but I still don't think that the Risk is still there and I am really looking high and mighty on Arman Tsarukyan right now I really don't know but also got tempted in making a bet on Dariush as well,

For sure some fighters have 2 to 3 fights and then UFC decided to give them a title shot that fast, and there is a success to that there are fighters that have been given an opportunity like that but they just blew it down for sure there is something like this and there are fighters that needed to make ranking 1st before getting the title shot,

I like your assessment of the Lightweight division for it is now exciting this way for me I like how they are fixed by rankings and for sure Charles Oliveira still has a chance to fight Islam Makhachev but for some reason got injured and replaced by Alexander Volkanovski, but for sure Charles Oliveira may have a hardtime against Makachev after witnessing that Islam Makhachev got great results,


I really like Arman Tsarukyan's chance, it could be a 50/50 chance but in my opinion, because of his age the chance of getting a win might be possible, and because of this a younger fighter also has a chance of getting much improvement for sure Charles Oliveira is stronger than Beneil Dariush as I think he is not improving much I guess this is just what I think as Arman Tsarukyan looks pretty much improving over time than with Gamrot,

Yup, I did.
I think there's some decent money to be made by betting on some of the UFC underdogs, as we have some good value bets quite often.
I'm actually tempted to do an experimental run of "betting on underdogs" tactic (and maybe create a dedicated thread), but I don't have much time to watch sports, other than highlights from the top UFC events, which is a bit too narrow field to pull that off. But who know, maybe next year.

Yup but don't get me wrong.  Before everybody starts parading itt if I'm wrong, I just wanna say I agree with the books that Tsarukyan should be the rightful favorite.  But not that big of a favorite.  The match is a pass but if I bet, I'd go for Dariush.  Better value for your money imho.

Didn't you make a thread about long term EV?  I think that applies here.

Anyway, here's another replay.  Lol.  So many replays for this event.

UFC Free Fight:  Green vs Haqparast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeJC1ZkY3s4

Turner vs Green could be wide too...  And a couple others like Brundage.

And jeremypwr's Multi Master is up and running.  Enjoy!

UFC on ESPN 52:  Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-on-espn-52-multi-master-challenge-saturday-2-december-5475695

But that is what Dana White actually likes. When obvious underdog beats dominant fighter (like Edwards was receiving beating during all fight, and finished Usman with a single high kick), Dana always say that "that is what UFC is about". You never know what will happen, you never know how fight will go, as in octagon anything can happen.

If UFC was about getting maximum milk from their cow, we would see Conor, and p4p fighters fight every weekend. And UFC perfectly knows how to hype a guy. Just that Paddy the fatty that came out of nowhere. Average fighter. UFC made his metabolism as a feature and we see everywhere Fatty drowning in fast food and later fighting slim in octagon.

I do understand where you're coming from. I think there was a major shift in fighters' attitude. Back in the days the dominating mentality was: "I'll fight whoever and whenever UFC want me to fight", but now they're all more calculating, more aware of their worth and of the fact their careers are relatively short-lived so no one is keen on taking on risks with little benefits.
But from the UFC's perspective, it's also not great if some no-name, ranked outside of the top 10, beats up their star. They know it's not easy to hype-up another fighter. So they'll just trying to milk them as much as possible while they're still famous and still on the top.


I agree. I don't understand reasons for those odds. I'd say both have around equal chances of winning. Looks like the bookies put too much weight on the age difference and heavily favour younger fighters, but Dariush is 34, so it's still not quite the "decline" period.

Again I'm talking about line value and the line is def wide.  Dariush at 3.20 could be value, that's if he doesn't get KO'd.  And if I'm betting on Tsarukyan at 1.37 or whatever then I'd expect no less than total dominance on the mat, on the feet and by the cage  which I don't think will happen.  But yeah, I could be wrong.  I just don't think with Dariush's skill set and experience he should be lined at 3.20.

Here's another replay to watch...  Enjoy.  

UFC Free Fight:  Turner vs Mullarkey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PlrYX1J8O4

Edit:  Here's more from UFC Brazil's YT channel.

UFC Free Fight:  Fig vs Moreno 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaaTClnaOhU

UFC Free Fight:  Tsarukyan vs Alvarez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts4zyIpLSy4

UFC Free Fight:  Dariush vs Gamrot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKCq_IS9ons

We are playing math now Dont forget that Tsarukyan lost by UD to Makhachev. A guy who subbed Oliveira, who TKOed Dariush (when he supposed to submit him) Its Tsarukyan that gained experience after Makhachev fight vs Dariush who lost peak Oliveira. Dunno, dunno. I am bad at math... Gonna be a good fight.


It was my general complaint about the fact that fighters higher in top dont want to fight those who are lower. It is understandable, but that slows everything. And then they sit without fights for half a year and more. Previously there were none of that. Previously, fighters were not afraid to fight unranked "because they would lose position in rating". Previously someone from top5 would easily go out with unranked guy, smash him in few rounds, get a fight of the night/performance/KO bonus and be happy.

You think odds on Arman are correct and justified?
I dont think he is going to be that dominant against Beneil Dariush like odds suggest, and I am thinking we could sea major upset here.
My best bet in this card is Deiveson Figueiredo, I think this is perfect him to return winning against Rob Font.