This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well

gijoes

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Quote from: gotmilk_ on November 29, 2015, 06:28:49 PM

Amount of shorts is crazy low.

Not really. It's around the same level as it was following a massive short squeeze during the $500 spike. So, after the spike bearish traders reopened some of their shorts hoping for a drop sub-300. As this didn't materialize, they closed the positions at the first sign of market strength. Leaving only 8K strategic short positions of deep-pocketed mega-bears.

gotmilk_

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I know that swaps are not even near ATH but fact that there was not that much swaps during the last run to 500$ as right now... is a bit worry? Amount of shorts is crazy low.

Currency   Flash Return Total amount used in margin positions
USD    0.0429%    24,017,220.05
BTC    0.0095%    6,509.44

ensurance982

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Trust me!

Quote from: techgeek on May 04, 2015, 11:33:51 PM

I think regardless of which way it goes, it should also be something to ask yourself about the technology behind it.

Which often people forget about, and that its a huge change in the financial game. Its going to be used for something, the direction of bitcoin is been deciding from day to day use, commodity, or other acceptable ventures.

We simply don't know whether it really will be used for something. Right now it is being used for some online transactions, gambling, and for speculating, and investing. There's nothing wrong with an "investing/speculating" asset, but it's not a given that it will be ever be anything more than that.

minerpumpkin

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A pumpkin mines 27 hours a night

Quote from: Chef Ramsay on May 04, 2015, 10:15:15 PM

Quote from: minerpumpkin on May 04, 2015, 01:21:29 PM

I agree, bears seem to get cautious now. If the market is undecided which way to go, it's your best bet to wait until it tilts to one side and then place your bets. If it isn't a bear-/bull-trap, you're most safe this way Cheesy

At no time in the recent past did we see bears thinking twice about their moves and/or s(ing)tfu about it while staying quiet and seeing what happens prior to now. Troll extraordinaires have subsided unlike any other times in the past which means something is brewing.

Well, I don't know... Sure, there are a ton of trolls and naysayers around here. But there are a lot of reasonable traders that are merely bearish (at a specific time) because it is more profitable being so. They know perfectly well (maybe even better than bulls) when to turn bullish again.

molecular

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about $ 1 million USD longs closed (roughly equal to 4,300 BTC):

A good thing^tm

techgeek

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I think regardless of which way it goes, it should also be something to ask yourself about the technology behind it.

Which often people forget about, and that its a huge change in the financial game. Its going to be used for something, the direction of bitcoin is been deciding from day to day use, commodity, or other acceptable ventures.

Chef Ramsay

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Quote from: minerpumpkin on May 04, 2015, 01:21:29 PM

I agree, bears seem to get cautious now. If the market is undecided which way to go, it's your best bet to wait until it tilts to one side and then place your bets. If it isn't a bear-/bull-trap, you're most safe this way Cheesy

At no time in the recent past did we see bears thinking twice about their moves and/or s(ing)tfu about it while staying quiet and seeing what happens prior to now. Troll extraordinaires have subsided unlike any other times in the past which means something is brewing.

minerpumpkin

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A pumpkin mines 27 hours a night

I agree, bears seem to get cautious now. If the market is undecided which way to go, it's your best bet to wait until it tilts to one side and then place your bets. If it isn't a bear-/bull-trap, you're most safe this way Cheesy

ensurance982

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Trust me!

Quote from: Tzupy on April 30, 2015, 12:04:04 PM

Quote from: molecular on April 30, 2015, 11:48:11 AM

btc swaps took a plunge:

I closed my short at a small loss, I suppose others did the same, being nervous about the BTC-E crazy pump.
Longs still in a similar position to August 2014, after short closing won't support current price anymore, I hope for a nice long squeeze.

I guess most shorters/bears realized that thing just may be different this time around and it is safer to just close your position and wait for the market to decide. This is the first time, squishy went green again before we've seen a new long-term low. I really wouldn't want to short at this point. And many bears apparently don't want to, either!

inca

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Quote from: Tzupy on April 30, 2015, 12:04:04 PM

Quote from: molecular on April 30, 2015, 11:48:11 AM

btc swaps took a plunge:

I closed my short at a small loss, I suppose others did the same, being nervous about the BTC-E crazy pump.
Longs still in a similar position to August 2014, after short closing won't support current price anymore, I hope for a nice long squeeze.

Given shorts were 5k above the previous all time high, and historically are still very high at 26000, why exactly are you erroneously suggesting that short closing won't support the price?

Any further buying will encourage more shorts to cover.

You think it is a coincidence the price is up from 215 to 240 whilst we shed some of the overhang of shorts?

SunBin

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Nothing bad happened so far.

Tzupy

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Quote from: molecular on April 30, 2015, 11:48:11 AM

btc swaps took a plunge:

I closed my short at a small loss, I suppose others did the same, being nervous about the BTC-E crazy pump.
Longs still in a similar position to August 2014, after short closing won't support current price anymore, I hope for a nice long squeeze.

molecular

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btc swaps took a plunge:

Xiaoxiao

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The Golden Rule Rules

Yeah this is not going to end well....

It's going to be the end of the world chirp chirp

RoadTrain

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Quote from: BTCjust on April 13, 2015, 11:37:10 PM

might as well we predict when will it collapse, that's more interesting

I think the move under 200 in the next couple of days will be violent.

BTCjust

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might as well we predict when will it collapse, that's more interesting

RoadTrain

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Shorts are declining faster than longs, I smell blood in the end.

inca

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Quote from: 8up on April 10, 2015, 02:35:21 PM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 10, 2015, 02:15:40 PM

How are the longs/shorts looking after the dumpfest today? Any insight and speculation from you guys around here? Didn't seem to cascade that badly, still. Scary.

Shorts @ new ATH.

The price could crash much lower easily as whoever has pushed us down could wipe out the entire visible bid side easily. That said with shorts at ATH one or two big buys could instantly squeeze the shorts.

Toss a coin.

8up

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Quote from: ensurance982 on April 10, 2015, 02:15:40 PM

How are the longs/shorts looking after the dumpfest today? Any insight and speculation from you guys around here? Didn't seem to cascade that badly, still. Scary.

Shorts @ new ATH.

ensurance982

hero member

Activity: 518

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Trust me!

How are the longs/shorts looking after the dumpfest today? Any insight and speculation from you guys around here? Didn't seem to cascade that badly, still. Scary.

Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well (Read 62095 times)