Molecular: These are loans funded by lenders sending hard cash to an unknown company in an unknown jurisdiction with no recourse if things go wrong. Nobody will lend money on that basis without a damn good return.
BTW have you seen the APRs charged by payday loans companies?
http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2013/09/05/payday-loans-companies-charging-up-to-7000-experience-huge-growth/
As high as 7,000 %
Makes the Bitfinex swap rates look paltry.
Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 27. (Read 62099 times)
I really have no good explanation for this.
Has this thread come up with any convincing explanation yet?
Has this thread come up with any convincing explanation yet?
I've been following the thread, and I'd say no. I've been wondering if there has been a revolving door of swap holders during this sideways market, with most closing after a short period with no up momentum, and a minority holding for a longer term move.
What do we think gang? Is ol' faithful going to blow Monday or are we going to get enough of an uptick from the Dell news once people wake up in China that it is going to save the riskiest players? I recently adjusted my position entering back in on the Dell news this morning, but still entering some flash crash catching bids on the exchanges in case she blows. I'm interested in hearing people's thoughts and analysis. You all have been around the block longer than I have.
The secret to a good orgasm is to hold it back for as long as possible.
Analogies aside: I don't know when (or even if) "she's going to blow", but back on topic:
I really don't understand how the USD swaps can be so high permanently. Price has been largely "stable" for a long time now and if I had a long position on borrowed money (let's say 0.1 %/day) established below current price, I'd have either closed it or claimed the coins (if leveraged < 1) a long time ago.
I really have no good explanation for this.
Has this thread come up with any convincing explanation yet?
believe me they do, look how many "features" did they deploy after they kicked me out
What's your story with Bfx?A former disgruntled employee, who made it his business to bash Bitfinex with every opportunity (...for about some year now I think)
Crooks should be bad mouthed at every opportunity.
What do we think gang? Is ol' faithful going to blow Monday or are we going to get enough of an uptick from the Dell news once people wake up in China that it is going to save the riskiest players? I recently adjusted my position entering back in on the Dell news this morning, but still entering some flash crash catching bids on the exchanges in case she blows. I'm interested in hearing people's thoughts and analysis. You all have been around the block longer than I have.
believe me they do, look how many "features" did they deploy after they kicked me out
What's your story with Bfx?
early i joined bitfinex like a adviser in 2012 and since what i put on the table did push bitfinex up from deep shit R promised to give me 25% of shares from bitfinex and when he registered the company on early 2013 but he dint and i dint get any document of that, then my theoretical 25% share got diluted to 20% to make room for additional investors, then using the excuse that i dint want to put money for bitfinex loses, i dint recognize the loses because there was no external audit and R already edited the database giving money to special friends so he turn around and said well i was not a share holder just like a adviser like i was in 2012 so he kicked me out
believe me they do, look how many "features" did they deploy after they kicked me out
What's your story with Bfx?A former disgruntled employee, who made it his business to bash Bitfinex with every opportunity (...for about some year now I think)
believe me they do, look how many "features" did they deploy after they kicked me out
What's your story with Bfx?
Long term businessman don't kill the goose which laid the golden eggs.
believe me they do, look how many "features" did they deploy after they kicked me out I have a solution for Bitfinex issue:
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
Don't give them ideas...
They can actually sell coins from hot wallet which don't belong to them, actually they belong to their customers. It is a scenario which has 100% probability to be successful.
Market is not regulated...
Long term businessman don't kill the goose which laid the golden eggs.
Mark Karpeles is a software developer. Not a good businessman as some posters here already pointed out.
I have a solution for Bitfinex issue:
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
Don't give them ideas...
They can actually sell coins from hot wallet which don't belong to them, actually they belong to their customers. It is a scenario which has 100% probability to be successful.
Market is not regulated...
Long term businessman don't kill the goose which laid the golden eggs.
I have a solution for Bitfinex issue:
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
Don't give them ideas...
They can actually sell coins from hot wallet which don't belong to them, actually they belong to their customers. It is a scenario which has 100% probability to be successful.
Market is not regulated...
Long term businessman don't kill the goose which laid the golden eggs.
I have a solution for Bitfinex issue:
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
Don't give them ideas...
They can actually sell coins from hot wallet which don't belong to them, actually they belong to their customers. It is a scenario which has 100% probability to be successful.
Market is not regulated...
I have a solution for Bitfinex issue:
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
Don't give them ideas...
I have a solution for Bitfinex issue:
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
- on 21th Bitfinex or some of their friends sells 5000 BTC at market price, bitcoin price drops to 500 USD
- new rules starts immediatelly afterwards
- price continues to drop, margin calls accelerates price drop
- at 1 USD a big chunk of money is waiting to buy everything (part of money from 5000 previously sold bitcoins)
- remaining money is used to push bitcoin price higher above 700 USD - and new baloooon is triggered
All those 5 steps are done within a minute. Only bitcoins changed their owners...
You used to be able to choose "insured" or "uninsured" swaps. They sent an announcement around a month or so ago increasing their take and saying that they will all be "insured" now. You are right, what exactly that means is perhaps unclear.
Unless the swaps would be "insured" by some 3rd party insurance company that has the ability to pay out an insurance contract in the event that the market were to crash/spike and they were unable to close out the margin positions in time (I would doubt they have this kind of insurance) then you would basically be betting that they have the financial ability to cover any trading losses in excess of 100% and without being able to audit their financial records, this (IMO) means very little. BFX takes 15% of swap interest that would otherwise be paid to lenders, to build an insurance fund. As far as I know, they have not made any obligation to pay beyond that fund. I assure you it does not amount to $32 million...
You are correct in that with current interest rates, there is no way that the 15% would be able to cover 100% losses from all margin trades, however would probably be enough to payout if losses were not too severe, that is assuming this is what those funds are being used for.
You used to be able to choose "insured" or "uninsured" swaps. They sent an announcement around a month or so ago increasing their take and saying that they will all be "insured" now. You are right, what exactly that means is perhaps unclear.
Unless the swaps would be "insured" by some 3rd party insurance company that has the ability to pay out an insurance contract in the event that the market were to crash/spike and they were unable to close out the margin positions in time (I would doubt they have this kind of insurance) then you would basically be betting that they have the financial ability to cover any trading losses in excess of 100% and without being able to audit their financial records, this (IMO) means very little. BFX takes 15% of swap interest that would otherwise be paid to lenders, to build an insurance fund. As far as I know, they have not made any obligation to pay beyond that fund. I assure you it does not amount to $32 million...
We might increase leverage in the future if we see our swap market is cooling off a little.
For the time being we believe it's a good idea, for the sake of traders, liquidity providers and the bitcoin market to slow down a little the growth of our swap total market.
I hope this helps.
Have a good day
Giancarlo
Bitfinex Team
For the time being we believe it's a good idea, for the sake of traders, liquidity providers and the bitcoin market to slow down a little the growth of our swap total market.
I hope this helps.
Have a good day
Giancarlo
Bitfinex Team
"Earlier today, Mt. Gox halted trading, saying the market needed to "cool down""
I knew i heard that phrase somewhere else before...
Hehe, I don't know about the validity of that analogy, but this is a pretty clear acknowledgement by Bitfinex that swaps/leverage have gotten out of hand vs. liquidity.
"cool down" is a very common phrase... bitfinex is guaranteeing the lender's principal, AND it schedules the margin calls. In other words, bitfinex can choose to not execute a forced sale if it wants. So clearly they aren't going to do margin calls so fast that they flash crash to the point where principal is lost because that will be suicide. Its therefore unlikely we'll get a deep flash crash on bitfinex alone... but a flash crash (or even something smaller than a crash) on other exchanges could trigger a big flash crash on bitfinex.
You used to be able to choose "insured" or "uninsured" swaps. They sent an announcement around a month or so ago increasing their take and saying that they will all be "insured" now. You are right, what exactly that means is perhaps unclear.
Clearly, right or wrong, Bitfinex doesn't want that information published or they would publish it.
I think customers have a right to know, even if they don't like. Other people, no. It's not hard to get the information, but it's harder than if it's published on a forum post. I wouldn't like to see my name published on a forum in association with bitcoin.
Since I'm a customer, my goal is to know the full name of all owners of Bitfinex and any other relevant information. I hope I won't ever need it, but...
I think customers have a right to know, even if they don't like. Other people, no. It's not hard to get the information, but it's harder than if it's published on a forum post. I wouldn't like to see my name published on a forum in association with bitcoin.
Since I'm a customer, my goal is to know the full name of all owners of Bitfinex and any other relevant information. I hope I won't ever need it, but...
But you dont have a public bitcoin business so you could have an expectation of privacy. IMHO officers of bitcoin businesses should be public knowledge... might discourage cut and run.
Clearly, right or wrong, Bitfinex doesn't want that information published or they would publish it.
I think customers have a right to know, even if they don't like. Other people, no. It's not hard to get the information, but it's harder than if it's published on a forum post. I wouldn't like to see my name published on a forum in association with bitcoin.
Since I'm a customer, my goal is to know the full name of all owners of Bitfinex and any other relevant information. I hope I won't ever need it, but...
I think customers have a right to know, even if they don't like. Other people, no. It's not hard to get the information, but it's harder than if it's published on a forum post. I wouldn't like to see my name published on a forum in association with bitcoin.
Since I'm a customer, my goal is to know the full name of all owners of Bitfinex and any other relevant information. I hope I won't ever need it, but...
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