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Topic: Track Record Forum Members - page 3. (Read 8618 times)

sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 28, 2013, 01:39:58 PM
#93
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1764508

Quote from:  Arzack on April 10, 2013, 10:10:14 AM
Did you sell all bitcoins?
Yes. I am 100% out. No matter where it will go next, I worry i will not find a buyer for my volume for any price above.

---
BrightAnarchist revealed after prices peaked at $266 and dropped instantly to around $110 that he sold some at $100 and $143:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1797068
Quote from: BrightAnarchist April 10, 2013, 09:33:55 PM
Quote from: underground_ on April 10, 2013, 09:33:04 PM
Didn't you sell everything at ~$100?

Some at $100 and some at $143
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 28, 2013, 12:36:47 PM
#92
Bubbles happen. It's human nature. You can't stop them.

People made way too much out of the last bubble, proclaiming the "end of bitcoin" when it popped. All nonsense. It was just a hype bubble, nothing new in the world here.

That's why if you believe in Bitcoin, as I do, but you're not into market timing or speculating, you can just use dollar cost averaging by buying BTC every month -- and stop worrying so much about the day-to-day price changes. Let the speculators sweat that stuff, you don't have to if you only care about the long-term success of BTC.

I've bought BTC at 6 cents, and I've bought it at $30. Overall I've been increasing my wealth since I discovered BTC because the long-term trend is up. And I don't worry about it.

Good call by BrightAnarchist. After going through a long bear market for 6 months coming from a high of $32 in June 2011 and only a good month earlier in November 2011 finding a bottom around $2 but since then doubling again to $5 he predicts the long term trend to be up and advises others to dollar cost average.

Price averaged $5.21 that day January 2, 2012 and indeed went up in the long term to $13 by the end of the year 2012 and to $130 as of today, 1.5 years later.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
August 28, 2013, 12:32:09 PM
#90
looking back at the last 10 days we can clearly see the bubble popping and the first good attempt at catching the resulting knife.

you can see that when the bubble popped at ~266$ their was a big dip in price without much volume ( everyone let the knife fall  )
but now at 80-50$ rang we are seeing HUGE volume spikes when their is any kind of movement up or down.
I think if we are not already at bottom, its not too far down...


+1 for me  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
August 28, 2013, 12:13:09 PM
#89
OP, I think you are missing the most epic and representative call by our beloved rpietila, who was absolutely sure that we would reach 300k USD per BTC by the end of the year:

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 28, 2013, 12:05:53 PM
#88
The reason they're falling is simple. The broader economy is slipping back into deflation. This makes inflation hedges like Bitcoin less attractive.

Bitcoin always tops with the stock market, or at least it has so far, and acts much like a penny stock. The last peak in BTC occurred prior to the flash crash, and so it's absolutely no surprise to see it falling right now as stocks fall and t-bonds rise.

I'm planing to buy a lot of BTC eventually but I've been waiting for the next major deflationary phase to run its course first.

Naturally, this is all my personal option/conjecture.

Bad call by BrightAnarchist. When price averaged $0.76 on March 19th 2011 and had just fallen from a high of $1.06 one month earlier he predicts, although with modesty, bitcoin to fall more and informs others he waits to make his large btc investment.

The price bottomed out 2 weeks later at an average price of $0.67 on April 5th 2011 after which it started shooting up parabolically peaking out already 2.5 months later at an average price of $29.58 on June 9th 2011. Since then it never fell back to $0.76 again but bottomed out 3 times higher at an average price of $2.14 by the end of the year, on November 18th 2011.  

 
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 25, 2013, 12:51:13 PM
#87
i would like to buy $1000 in BTC from an honest trader.  can someone help me?  

Great call from cypherdoc. Not that he advised others to buy but he was openly declaring his bullishness on bitcoin when average price was $0.67 on that 5th of April 2011. Price was coming from a high of over $1.08 on February 12th 2011 and had been correcting for 2 months by -40%. That day marked the low as it started to go straight up the next day peaking out 2 months later on June 9th 2011 at $31.5. 


 
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
August 24, 2013, 12:55:22 PM
#86

He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:


I think it already bottomed at $50. I do not expect price at the end of year goes bellow $68. But who knows :-) More probably Bitcoin price can skyrocket anytime.

I'm curious to know why you think this? Smiley

I see more logic in a continued correction since the bubble went up for so long, 3 months hyperbolic, historically corrections took more than double the time of the hyperbolic rise, so that would be a bottom indeed around november/december. Bottom meaning it touches the long term trend line that you drew on your chart also, meaning touching at least $60/$70 around the end of the year.

But I didn't make such a great call before this thing went to the moon so I consider you more of an expert in takeoff detections  Grin

1. big volume in april (5M BTC) at average price $130
2. long term trend line rises 550% per year.

so why sell at a lose ($60) in 2014 when you can sell with profit in 2015 (long term trend line over $300) ?
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 24, 2013, 12:07:49 PM
#85

He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:


I think it already bottomed at $50. I do not expect price at the end of year goes bellow $68. But who knows :-) More probably Bitcoin price can skyrocket anytime.

I'm curious to know why you think this? Smiley

I see more logic in a continued correction since the bubble went up for so long, 3 months hyperbolic, historically corrections took more than double the time of the hyperbolic rise, so that would be a bottom indeed around november/december. Bottom meaning it touches the long term trend line that you drew on your chart also, meaning touching at least $60/$70 around the end of the year.

But I didn't make such a great call before this thing went to the moon so I consider you more of an expert in takeoff detections  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
August 24, 2013, 09:22:00 AM
#84

He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:


I think it already bottomed at $50. I do not expect price at the end of year goes bellow $68. But who knows :-) More probably Bitcoin price can skyrocket anytime.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
August 23, 2013, 03:17:33 PM
#83
Historically the buy&hold strategy has been the absolute winner in BTC, this is a hard cold fact
Or not, some might disagree:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2815963


I'm referring to buy&hold vs cashing out profits, or buy&hold vs "risk balancing" strategies which purpose is again to secure fiat profits while reducing the exposure to BTC. Long term, BTC has only gone up exponentially,  thus the best you can do is to buy as much as you can

Plus, does Goomboo consider fees and slippage in his back tests? Because those are two profit killers in this market. In fact, he shows backtests of hourly 10/21 EMA crossings, but he admits that he trades once daily at most, picking up very carefully his trades, because otherwise slippage and fees would eat all his profits. Making a long story short, the theoretical graphs of Goombo are very nice and very instructive, but the reality is quite different.

legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
August 23, 2013, 12:03:02 PM
#82
Historically the buy&hold strategy has been the absolute winner in BTC, this is a hard cold fact
Or not, some might disagree:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2815963
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
August 23, 2013, 09:49:53 AM
#81
RationalSpeculator: In almost 4,000 posts I've made plenty of good and back calls, serious analysis and just trolling, I'm just pointing out that as a "track record" you chose quite poor and ambiguous examples.

About the guy wondering what to do on April 8th with BTC at $175: I would give the same advice today. If you care about your FIAT profits, sell (especially if the price just went to $175 from $14); if you are into BTC precisely as a hedge against fiat and the current financial system, just HOLD and forget about the exchange rate. Historically the buy&hold strategy has been the absolute winner in BTC, this is a hard cold fact, and obviously the quote you just posted can read very differently in a few years from now. Frankly, I've made much worst calls about specific trades in concrete timeframes. Plus, that same day (April 8th) I posted that Bitcoin was in the middle of a speculative bubble that needed to burst ASAP, and we all know how that plaid out. Being beginning of April a time in which I posted +30 times per day (trolly and spammy as you say), probably you will find good, bad and ambiguous calls made during the same day Cheesy

Finally, you might be right that I'm correct only 33% of the times. I guess the point is to lose the minimum when you get it wrong, and earn the max. when you get it right. I definitely didn't achieve to double my BTC stash during these months of post-crash volatility - as I guess a decent trader would have done - but nevertheless I'm reasonably up, thus my calls are good enough for me. I do not pretend them to be good for anyone else, as I'm no financial advisor.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 23, 2013, 08:09:02 AM
#80
Waking up to see this ...another completely failed rally attempt... I think there might be some panic today
60's on their way soon ... have to say, I didn't think it would happen so quickly
What do you think Rampion and IAS ?

Well, I had a bid at $71ish that wasn't filled for a few cents (unfortunately, the bounce from $72 was very profitable for those who caught it), and I pulled it. Didn't catch it the first time, I won't be trying to catch a falling knife for the second time in the $70s for sure.

I may play a bounce in the $60s, but with a smallish position. Its risky.

I will for sure play the bounce from the $50ish with significant money, that its going to be nice action indeed.

I still see too much denial for the very bottom to be close, but it's also true that these forums are über-bullish by nature (its bitcointalk.org), so I don't really know how good indicator they are.

This was a bad call. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now in the $70's Rampion thinks price will go down even more to $50's. He says he does not buy at current price around $70 and might buy a little in $60's.

Price dropped to only $65 that day July 5th and strongly recovered the days and weeks after to $111 by July 31st.



I was wrong about the price going to the '50s in that moment, but how was buying some coins in the '60s to play the bounce (to $110, as you pointed out) a bad call? It made me money.


You are now misrepresenting the call made. Your call was not to buy some coins in the 60's. It was to maybe buy some coins in the 60's, but you found it to be risky.

If you are unable to see that this call was overall a bad call, you are incapable of critical self analysis. I strongly suspect this to be the case with you, just like I think this to be the case with cypherdoc too.

This is much worse than making a bad call as critical self analyses is the only way to learn and improve.


I'm considering selling all of mine at the market price of $175, and waiting to see what happens next. Its so hard to decide lol. What if it hits $200? etc.

You are in BTC because of fiat profits? SELL SELL SELL

You are in BTC because of freedom? HOLD HOLD HOLD

Every BTC sold goes from weak hands to stronger hands. Just do it!

This was a bad call. After the market has gone up for many months in a row, parabolically, Rampion advises someone who considered selling at $175 to hold.

2 days later, on April 10th, the price peaked out at $266 and crashed to $105, only to end the day at $165.

It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.

This is lame. I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong), and you nitpick a trolly post I wrote? Anyhow I stand correct in what I told the guy - if you are in BTC because of fiat profits, then SELL (that was a very good moment to sell for FIAT profits, right?). If you are in BTC because of something deeper (monetary freedom) - then HOLD and fuck the exchange rate.

Anyhow, this is a fun (and useful) initiative - but me, Blitz, Cypherdoc, Odalv, etc. have made dozens (if not hundreds) of calls and here you are cherry-picking a lot, selecting very few, which makes this thread incomplete and biased. I think it would be cool if you'd do an exhaustive recount of all the calls - I guess its almost an impossible job for the past (tens of k's of posts to be read, etc.) but maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on.


In my opinion your response to me analysing your call is 'lame'. You still do not recognize this to be a bad call. You are instead misrepresenting again the call made (no, it was not advise to sell... you made a mockery of someone considering to sell), are making up excuses ("I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong)"), are trying to discredit the messenger with unfounded accusations ("you are cherry picking") and you are trying to make this thread into an impossible task ("maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on").  

I want the track record to be a fair representation of one's performance here in the past. It is my experience that you have been more wrong than right Rampion. Advising to buy and hold when prices were relatively high ($230) and to not buy when prices were relatively low ($70). And this in a trolly and spammy manner thereby adding to the widespread greed and fear that dominated this board and likely mislead many. I agree that my impression is subjective and my representation of your track record also. If you find it to be an unfair overly negative representation please quote calls from you here that have proven to be great/good and helpful for others.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 23, 2013, 07:04:14 AM
#79
I made a pretty good call in November 2012, predicting a rocket would ignite within 1 to 3 months. As we all know, it did indeed take off 2 months later.

I'm pretty proud of this call because it was well-argued and of course because it was correct Wink. I would feel honored if it was listed.



Great call indeed, thanks for bringing to my attention, I listed it.

Since you have posted a lot. Did you make bad/horrible calls too?

I'd like the list to be a fair representation of one's track record.

Of course I made some bad calls, too, because I'm generally ultra-bullish. But honestly: I can't find one I put as much weight into as the above one. I will try to find a bad call...
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 23, 2013, 06:55:07 AM
#78
I made a pretty good call in November 2012, predicting a rocket would ignite within 1 to 3 months. As we all know, it did indeed take off 2 months later.

I'm pretty proud of this call because it was well-argued and of course because it was correct Wink. I would feel honored if it was listed.



Great call indeed, thanks for bringing to my attention, I listed it.

Since you have posted a lot. Did you make bad/horrible calls too?

I'd like the list to be a fair representation of one's track record.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
August 23, 2013, 06:45:07 AM
#77
my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited

my rational mind tries to find explanations for the intuition:

  • ECB Paper, ZeroHedge coverage / ... taps whole new reservoir of potential supporters and enemies, this might initiate wider public/academic discussion
  • I see an above-average amount of newbs trickling in that seem to be quite educated and understanding already (not your typical gamer kid)
  • Market turmoil ahead with the reward halving
  • Long consolidation period has been going on
  • Ongoing and increasing distrust of fiat money and banking system amongst the general population
  • Bitcoin fundamentally rocksolid and more and more people "get it"
  • All this taken together might push bitcoin beyond the next "critical mass" checkpoint of adoption / public awareness within the next 1-3 months.
  • ...
  • rocket ignition

don't jump off Wink

Great call by molecular. Although no price target is given, he predicts it to go up a lot very soon, gives rational arguments to support his case and advises others to hold. Indeed average price that day November 5th 2012 was $10.73 and has not been seen again. Price went straight up from there for 5 months in a row peaking out at $266 on April 10th 2013.  
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 23, 2013, 06:20:38 AM
#76
I made a pretty good call in November 2012, predicting a rocket would ignite within 1 to 3 months. As we all know, it did indeed take off 2 months later.

I'm pretty proud of this call because it was well-argued and of course because it was correct Wink. I would feel honored if it was listed.

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
August 23, 2013, 03:20:11 AM
#75
Waking up to see this ...another completely failed rally attempt... I think there might be some panic today
60's on their way soon ... have to say, I didn't think it would happen so quickly
What do you think Rampion and IAS ?

Well, I had a bid at $71ish that wasn't filled for a few cents (unfortunately, the bounce from $72 was very profitable for those who caught it), and I pulled it. Didn't catch it the first time, I won't be trying to catch a falling knife for the second time in the $70s for sure.

I may play a bounce in the $60s, but with a smallish position. Its risky.

I will for sure play the bounce from the $50ish with significant money, that its going to be nice action indeed.

I still see too much denial for the very bottom to be close, but it's also true that these forums are über-bullish by nature (its bitcointalk.org), so I don't really know how good indicator they are.

This was a bad call. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now in the $70's Rampion thinks price will go down even more to $50's. He says he does not buy at current price around $70 and might buy a little in $60's.

Price dropped to only $65 that day July 5th and strongly recovered the days and weeks after to $111 by July 31st.



I was wrong about the price going to the '50s in that moment, but how was buying some coins in the '60s to play the bounce (to $110, as you pointed out) a bad call? It made me money.

I'm considering selling all of mine at the market price of $175, and waiting to see what happens next. Its so hard to decide lol. What if it hits $200? etc.

You are in BTC because of fiat profits? SELL SELL SELL

You are in BTC because of freedom? HOLD HOLD HOLD

Every BTC sold goes from weak hands to stronger hands. Just do it!

This was a bad call. After the market has gone up for many months in a row, parabolically, Rampion advises someone who considered selling at $175 to hold.

2 days later, on April 10th, the price peaked out at $266 and crashed to $105, only to end the day at $165.

It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.

This is lame. I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong), and you nitpick a trolly post I wrote? Anyhow I stand correct in what I told the guy - if you are in BTC because of fiat profits, then SELL (that was a very good moment to sell for FIAT profits, right?). If you are in BTC because of something deeper (monetary freedom) - then HOLD and fuck the exchange rate.

Anyhow, this is a fun (and useful) initiative - but me, Blitz, Cypherdoc, Odalv, etc. have made dozens (if not hundreds) of calls and here you are cherry-picking a lot, selecting very few, which makes this thread incomplete and biased. I think it would be cool if you'd do an exhaustive recount of all the calls - I guess its almost an impossible job for the past (tens of k's of posts to be read, etc.) but maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on.
hero member
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