Topic: Track Record Forum Members - page 4. (Read 8632 times)

Great call by Odalv. On February 22, 2013, when the exponential rise had been going on already for almost 2 months and price was at $28 he predicts it to go above $200. Indeed it topped 1,5 month later at $266 on April 10th after which it collapsed. A very accurate call made very early helping others to hold.

He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:
note: he cancelled this call here

I'm not sure what the price was when you made that prediction but the average price for that day July 12th was $96. Predicting the price will go to $103 2/3 weeks later seems too close a price to be of much value.  I agree it was the right call but not worth mentioning in the list in my opinion.

Bad call from Blitz. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now at $66 Blitz thinks panic is just starting. He says mtgox withdrawals are fine now and thinks selling will accelerate now that people can withdraw their fiat.

Price bottomed at $65 that same day July 5th and went straight up from there. It closed over $100 already 3 weeks later on July 29th. It continued to go up and by August 19th hit $120 on mtgox, going to premiums of 20% at times over the other exchanges likely due to continued withdrawal problems at mtgox.

I was talking about possible upcoming "forecasting thread" not this one (I was replying to his quote).

This thread is not meant to make predictions. It is meant to judge and document past predictions, from yourself or others.

This kind of thread should be educational with clear explanation and even maybe charts. Othervise this thread will become lucky guessing thread.

Agreed, I want a forecasters' thread too. I'm almost ready to post my next prediction there.

Ha-ha you can watch me velcarations dhenson vycid volcaniceruptor icebreaker etc and put them all into a list just using the securities thread  
And MPOE-PR

But lets get this started he-he it will be fun having them find this thread later but I'll try to keep it to recent predictions you guys feel free to quote anyone else might be able to make this thread quite amusing if everyone posts predictions of the day and looks back on them months later

I can see evil potential here

Vycid right after Friedcat post

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2984500

Yes, even nicer would be a seperate thread for forecasters, where they can make their public prognostications for grading.  If only that would corral them all into one place and those not corralled could be told to post there or not be considered serious, as most seem not to be anyway (the "goin' to the moon" or "worthless monopoly money" etc).
The vain hope is that it would diminish the hubris of imaginings that the future is visible.

It would be much easier if forecasters posted pictures of their calls.

Imagines the manual tracking through 100's of posts XD
Lol

lol

So a speculation track record thread 
This will be interesting

I'm sorry, you are right. He said 'don't sell' on the highs. He did not say 'buy now'.  

I stand corrected. Still a bad call though to advise to 'hold' and the market ends up crashing.

Thanks for your confirmation.

Thanks a lot for your appreciation.

There is a big difference between "don't sell" and "buy now".  Or, to use your example, you are suggesting "sell now" when he would have said "don't buy".


I agree he has a potential blind spot, but with most of the potential failure modes of BTC, we will all be caught by surprise.

I don't think I am misrepresenting his 'soon'. I have followed cypherdoc his newsletter and soon means the coming weeks, not in 5 months after first correcting -80%.

I hope you are able to judge a call objectively, independent of your feelings for this person?


Let's say like cypherdoc I predict, but that the market will go down soon and say: "sell your coins to all those suckers. we are going down soon." The inverse happens, it goes up by 800% for 5 months in a row. I continue to predict it will go down though, also right on the high. Then it starts to go down but it takes 2 years to go below that price where I made the call, but indeed it goes much lower and my call becomes true.

Proudly I bump the thread continuously where I called it will go down right at the top. Someone points out that was a great call indeed but the call earlier was wrong and I say: "hey I sold even more coins as it went up, and now 2 year later the price is indeed much lower as original". Even if this is right, it was still a poor call as it first went up by 800%.


I agree he is way up at current prices, just like anyone who bought in 2011.

Stick with it was the art though, and he definitely succeeded in that, and helped many others to stick with it, me included.

However, he does not teach any risk management, is silent about his wrong calls while very public about his right calls, gets defensive if you confront him about his wrong calls, and repeats his mistakes to continue to advise to buy even after parabolic epic rises. He did it in 2011, and again in 2013 as I prove in this thread.

Basically he is acting as a goldbug. Always bullish, always advising to buy, even when proven seriously wrong, not recognizing it, not taking responsibility and when confronted denying, minimising and ridiculing.  

This is a serious red flag. Very likely, if bitcoin fails, he fails and everyone who follows him. Be aware.

  

Nice initiative.  And very interesting this thread. Obviously there will be people who will feel very hurt but we have a right to know these analyzes and the degree of successes.

And because he is well capitalized, he was able to buy all the way down.  Perhaps his "soon" is different from what you assumed "soon" to mean.  He's way up at these prices.

Hi! I'm no day trader. But here's some self-aggrandizement anyways. I've made a number of longer term predictions on this site that still lie in the future. But I do nominate myself for this prediction:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2823035

wherein I predicted on 7/12/13 the price would be $103 on 7/31. $103 was about the average price between Mt Gox and Bitstamp that day, though it was quite volatile around it.

So that's one of out one predictions that lie in the past

monkeybars +1