Topic: Track Record Forum Members - page 5. (Read 8632 times)

That's a pity. I hoped to get one Satoshi or even two Satoshis as a reward



Fair. Extremely happy to have gotten a plus.



Newsletter? - not with my English. Fund? - already did this. Will stick to etc in the future

I realize he is the mod. I don't think he will remove it. Could you quote some more grave bad calls from him? I'll put them all on the list. It's just that $10 difference seems low, and it's so recent, so he could end up still being right on that one. Wasn't he also screaming sell around $70 1 month ago?

dude, blitz made MANY wrong calls (few right calls too) but, his latest calls have been way off base and since he said we will not see triple digits this year COULD have caused people losses of sorts. you don't want to put him on cause he's a mod here?

That argument holds no water. There is an external situation keeping prices high at Gox. It doesn't logically follow that prices at other exchanges are artificially low.

It's the value of USD in question. At Bitstamp, $1 = $1, so price should accurately reflect the market. At Gox, this isn't true, and we know that the market values Gox $ significantly less than $ at other exchanges. So the real price should be determined by an aggregate of exchanges, excluding Gox.

Sorry OP, delete posts if needed.

well if gox is artificially keeping prices high - other exchanges are artificially keeping the price low.
if gox is 50% of all exchanges - then like i said the ACTUAL price is somewhere in between gox and bitstamp.
using the numbers you've provided i'd say my nonscientific estimate is about $110.88 being the real value

People, please there are other threads to discuss price difference gox and others. I'd like to keep this thread focused on track record and evaluation of calls only.

"Stay on target ... stay on target ..."

BTC-E still has 6% of the market. I mention it mainly because I trade there and it echoes Bitstamp's prices, not Gox's. Considering that every exchange has a considerable spread with Gox, it is clear that Gox is not the real price and that it is much closer to the other exchanges.

Gox 121
Stamp 104
BTC-E 100
CampBX 103

No question that Gox is quite artificial at the moment.

This is a wrong call indeed, price was at $110 on July 14th/18th, Blitz predicts it goes down, and today it's at $120.

But not worth people's time to list and study, I prefer to quote calls that led to huge losses or profits if followed.  You know, the juicy ones

No actually it's just you and me.
I am an ELIZA bot and operate 99.9% of Bitcointalks forums accounts.

Also I stalked you home last night.

bitstamp and btc-e are not the real price either - it's somewhere between mtgox and both. btc-e has such low volume (i think coinbase prob even does more) that they shouldn't even be referenced any longer

blitz: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2822165;topicseen#msg2822165

EM - his nonsense is all over this forum (dude likely gets paid by someone to sit on here all day)

the gang - not sure they are on my ignore list and some used to make new topics everyday with their doom and gloom statments

maybe blitz got rid of some of them or they could all be EM's alter egos

What I or others did has no relevance to his call being good or bad.

I agree it was not easy then, and Rampion his call shows little regard for that and on top turned out completely wrong.  

For your info, I advised others to sell some, and keep some (and did the same myself) but was mostly screamed over by messages such as Rampion's one above.  

Some-but-Not-all-traders are readers of this forum.  It appears that RS is looking to give some advantage to those-that-are-readers over those-that-are-not.
Whatever you may think of the methods and motives for this, the result is a condensation of information which may benefit those-who-are-readers.

Great call from Loozik. When price was $66 on July 7th he predicted it would go up. He did not mention $120 but did draw the line to $120 on his chart (first chart below). On the same day when the price had gone up from $66 to $72 he confirmed it was still a good trade to make and predicted it would continue to go up (second chart). A week later on July 14th when the price had moved up already strongly to $96 he confirmed his call that the price would continue to go up (third chart).

Indeed price bottomed right at $66 that day when he called it. When he confirmed at $72 the same day, it indeed continued to go up. When it hit $96 on July 14th he confirmed again that it would continue to go up, and indeed it hit $120 a month later on August 18th.

For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark.

Post their calls here and we will get a better picture.

I'm especially interested in 'the gang' since I suspect their opinions/reputation are overvalued since it's mostly based on quantity and funz instead of quality. But finding their calls and refering to subsequent price is some work. Your help would be valued by me. I would say target those that you find overvalued or undervalued.

Hi Loozik

There is no reward or price. I hope though that this thread helps people to evaluate better who's opinions to follow and who's opinions to be careful about.

Having a proven good track record has high reputation value and can be leveraged in different ways: newsletter, fund, etc.

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?

I'm beginning to think that your requirements are for a freakin' oracle.  Markets are fractal.  Nobody could predict that Apr 10 was going to be THE dump; in a mirror universe we could have topped at 150 or 500.  But it doesn't matter that that could not be predicted because anyone playing the "dip" made a lot on the dump -- or lost a lot less then they would have if they weren't playing the dip.  Sure they might have made MORE if the prediction had been "this is the dump".  But it remains good advice.  In other words, some people were noticing that we were in the stratosphere and advocating shaking loose some fiat for btc repurchase at a lower price and others -- rpietelia for the most extreme example --- were still pumping for a much higher price.  Which group do you think is the one making honest predictions and which is the one attempting to influence the market?

Stock prediction is complex and I think you are falling into the trap of simplifying it down to uselessness.  I know someone who back in '99 (during the internet investing bubble) entered a stock prediction challenge (it was promoting a stock opinion website) and actually won 10k.  Just to give you an idea of how he did it ... first step, pick a stock with incredibly low volatility.

But in the real world, its better to be partly right most of the time rather then being exactly right once.


Also, FYI price hit near $50 around 48 hours after the drop... the price was flying all over the place due to DDOS.  It then hit it again 6 days later on the 16th, which is the bottom that I think you keep referring to. http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig15-minzczsg2013-04-09zeg2013-04-16ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv.

These 2, plus the recent $65 price form the "triple bottom" that has provided the confidence needed for the current run up.