With Besiktas basically out of the title chase, we once again have only two teams that can win it this year, which is basically same as last year, and pretty much same as year before that as well. I cannot really say about that during 2021-2022 because Besiktas wasn't totally out there, but last season and this season has been pretty similar.
Fenerbahce and Galatasaray will fight, even though Galatasaray is ahead right now, with one loss anything could change, so we can't really see who will win it this year just yet. Mourinho is a wonderful manager, hasn't been that awesome lately I agree, but he is doing fine so far and I believe they could still make a comeback, I am not saying they will, but the possibility is there.
I wouldn't talk so confidently. There will probably be big changes in Beşiktaş tomorrow. According to the insider information I received, there will be resignations in the management.
Although Beşiktaş is currently far behind in terms of points, after these changes, if they enter the Winter break with their wounds healed, they can compete again with 2-3 on point transfers. It should be taken into account that the opponents won't win all their matches and will lose points as well. Especially when you look at the last 6 matches, Beşiktaş has the most advantage. If they win the Fenerbahçe derby, they can make it six out of six. Opponents are almost certain to lose points in this period.