I still believe that Real Madrid will win at the Etihad Stadium, even though City have dominated everyone at this stadium. I can't say that the task is easy as City beat Schalke 7-0, Arsenal 4-0, Liverpool 4-0, Bayern Munich 3-1, Chelsea and Tottenham 4-1 each. So yes, City is terrifying at home.
But that's not the whole story, when Real Madrid went to Manchester in 2000 to face the strongest team in the world at the time (Manchester United) after drawing 0-0 in Santiago Bernabeu, they were told: you can't win at Old Trafford because the Reds had not lost at home that season, nor had they lost at their home stadium for a year and a half!
Real Madrid's response was to lead 3-0 in 53 minutes, then win 3-2, qualify for the semi-finals of the Champions League and then win the title.
Winning away from home is Real Madrid's specialty, you could ask that to Liverpool at least, this season they only lost at Anfield to Leeds United but lost to Real Madrid, or ask Barcelona how they lost the Copa del Rey after a 4-0 defeat at the Camp Nou, even though they had only lost once before in a match that didn't affect anything.
In short, City is very strong at home but if anyone can stop them it's Real Madrid and the matter is conditional on Karim Benzema returning to form, without him Real Madrid will not qualify and none of their best players are performing well.
And from our knowledge of Benzema, he's really capable of returning.
Everything is open in the return match, can't wait to see how things will go but I'm pretty sure it'll be such a really good game.
Nothing is lost yet for Real Madrid as we are still speaking about Real Madrid and not Elche or Getafe. I think everyone agrees that Real Madrid isn't going there without any chances. They are too strong and the result was a draw, not a loss by 3 goals.
But Real Madrid missed the chance to put themselves into a good starting position for the second leg. Especially when the first leg ends closely like a draw or a 1 goal difference only, I think it is a significant advantage if you play the second leg at home. That's not like a walkover into the next round, but it is an advantage.
You went back to the year 2000 to find an example that comes close to the conditions now between Manchester City and Real Madrid. The reason is that more often than not the home team is winning. But nobody who followed the Champions League in recent years forgot what Real Madrid did in this competition.