Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 37. (Read 6260 times)

What Trump "did" in 2016 was just amazing, if that word makes any sense. He won a) all swing states and b) won states that had a long-ish history of being won by the Democrats.

Regarding b) this is Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, totalling up to 46 electoral votes (remember the electoral votes: Trump 304 - 227 Clinton). These 46 ev he won with a combined margin of 1.72%: Michigan 0.23%, Pennsylvania 0.72%, Wisconsin 0.77%. These three states were democratic territory for a long period of time, but in 2016 were republican:

Democrats won Michigan from 1992-2012.
Democrats won Pennsylvania from 1992-2012.
Democrats won Wisconsin from 1992-2012.

There was no state that was suddenly won by the Democrats with having a republican history.


Yes, Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 as well and Biden is 1.60-ish for winning it this year, while Trump is 3.00+.


I found this one today:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-props

They do accept crypto, if you want to take your chances But KYC is needed imo.

Wow. The answers to this topic vs what I see on the front page of Reddit, Twitter, Google, MSM and in the top comments of all these is mindblowing. Maybe I'm looking at 2 different mindsets, put the list above next to BTCTalk and you have 2 completely opposed things.

Anyways, I don't really get the "cents" and all those things some members have talked about (including graphs) to be honest but I'm very interested in the US Presidential Elections. I was wondering, is there any gambling website offering the possibility to bet on the delay/cancellation of the elections?

Most MSM articles I've read say he just cannot cancel them, "But that doesn’t mean disasters can’t wreak havoc on democracy as usual". I'm not thinking about what Trump wants but I'm rather looking at it from a rougher perspective: if a second, tougher wave of the pandemic comes in after summer and countries will need to take even stricter measures than the ones we took in the past months, is there really no way the elections could be delayed/cancelled? I'd bet on a second strain/wave of the virus coming through this autumn, so I'm wondering whether this is a possibility or not.

Trump is the favorite?

During the past 6 months, none of the national polls have shown a lead for Trump. All of them have shown Democrat candidates leading by anywhere from 5 to 10 points.

But then the US elections are a bit complex. It's not the popular vote, but the electoral vote which counts. And Trump do have a fair chance in some of the "battleground" states, such as Florida (29 electoral votes) and Ohio (18 electoral votes).

Florida is going to be the most crucial state. If Trump loses that state, then the elections are over for him.

Trump is the incumbent, so I firmly believe he will be the favorite. Just like a famous quote, "There is no such thing as bad publicity," he received so much air time for the last five years and even gaining more air time with the Covid-19 task force. And who is the strongest candidate from Democrat? Biden? I have the feeling Democrat will be spanked hard this election.

We also need to take into account that the last president to lose the reelection was George Bush(the father) on 1992, that was 28 years ago and before him the last one to lose the reelection was Jimmy Carter on 1980, that was 40 years ago, as we can see it is unlikely for a US president to lose the reelection and in times of crisis people have the tendency to leave the current president in charge instead of taking the risk with a new president, this happened during WW2 and if this crisis is unresolved for a long time and people are afraid of what it is to come then Trump may gain voters without actually doing anything.

Well.. that's what happened in 2016. Those who voted for Sanders, at least a large part of them stayed at home or turned out to vote for Jill Stein. But the circumstances have changed. Back then, Hillary was accused of stealing the primary election from Sanders. This time Biden is defeating Sanders comfortably in most of the states. And the idea of a second term for Trump horrifies many of the Sanders supporters. They will be forced to support Biden, albeit unwillingly.

Thank you! Every gambler would be happy to  hear these words.

Now I'm thinking on continuing with this strategy, only with some corrections made: maybe I will stop placing bets on the events where odds are too high. I prefer betting on high multipliers anyway, but there is a big difference between a dice bet with 200x multiplier, and a bet with the same odds on sports betting. There is no such thing as "too high odds" for luck-based games, I personally won with 9900x multiplier on dice several times and I won with 9k+ multiplier on Mines just recently, but in sports betting, with the exception of multi bets, odds higher than 100.00 mean it's never gonna happen.

As DarkStar_ said, betting on high odds requires a lot of patience, stamina and mental strength, because you will go through long droughts. And very important as always is to shop for the best odds; it makes one hell of a difference longterm and we can only think longterm with betting to eliminate the luck factor.

I was checking the odds for Cuomo at various other bookmakers:

Bet365: 26.00
Stake: 26.62
Dafabet: 26.00

Betfair: 50.00

See the difference ? Nearly double the odds, a difference of 1.8%+ in implied probabilty, this is huge.

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Regarding the health issues, I found some bet at 5dimes:


Source: https://www.5dimes.eu/

Very borderline imo.

How has he messed up? Should you not consider that it was really China that messed up? Also, if everyone hates Trump, why do you speculate that he might win again?

I shake my head.

In any case, there are some commentaries that the Democrats are underestimating Bernie Sanders' ability to gather independent votes. Many independents who might vote for him might not vote for Biden.

Yeah I don't think any of us, anyone in the media, anyone writing articles, and so on and so forth understand that when you're this close to the presidency -- you're not going to just drop out to be a team player. Maybe if you were a younger democrat and you thought it would be benifitical down the line (think of someone like Mayor Pete) but if you're an older person and you can't wait another 4 years for another shot, you're gonna stick in this and hope and pray.

I can't even imagine what that would be like. Imagine being this close to being the leader of the free world and then losing the election? Whew. Thank god none of us on here will be close to that, hehe.

Trump was already the de facto Republican nominee before or by the time Corona became an issue in the US:


That is what I would do, yes, or at least consider, if I rated my chances 50%, while a colleague of mine has 70% maybe. But I am not the person looking for power and politicians are a different species. I would talk to that colleague first of course, if he would be willing to do it. If he convincingly rules it out 100% and I see no other candidate with way more chances than me, then I would keep going.

Biden having once in a lifetime chance to become the most powerful person on the globe. Do you really think that he would sacrifice that and select one of his colleagues for the Democrat nomination? And that too someone who doesn't even figured in the primaries? Forget about his age. Biden would still be the candidate, even if he is 87 years old.

As you said, Biden needs to put his own goals above the goals from his party and the future of the United States. Agreed. But what if Biden thinks that by running for the president (as a moderate Democrat, he has one of the best chances against Trump), he is perfectly in line with the goals from his party? I am sure that Biden thinks that he is doing a favor for the US, by running against Trump.

I'm not too sure about that. I can't find Betfair historical data for some reason, but on PredictIt, this is how shares for Trump to become the nominee have traded:


On PredictIt, a share pays out $1 if the result occurs. Volume is lower than Betfair, but spreads are also 1 cent. There's no clear period where COVID-19 wasn't a thing at all, so there's always going to be some COIVD-19 uncertainty and/or impeachment uncertainty. After Trump was acquitted, he traded at 94 cents for a few days (1.063 odds = 94% implied), which was prior to any major worry in the USA and the general thought was that it would largely stay in China. I'd say that health uncertainty definitely contributes at least 2 cents/1.02.

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If you did know what you were doing and believed that you got +EV on most/all of your bets, you could have lost due to variance and not because the strategy was bad.

I can relate to your view on this situation because in the recent times I made mostly these kinds of bets. Obviously it doesn't work with the regular sports betting because if you bet on something with 46.00 odds, you are doomed, man. But then I thought, why not try this strategy with Oscar betting? For example, the odds for Todd Philips getting Oscar directing Joker(a great movie imo) were 60.00! And the odds for Maleficent: Mistress of Evil getting Oscar for Bets Make Up and Hairstyling were 36.50.

Long story short, I placed over 40 bets on various sites by the principle high odds/not that low probability. And you know what? I lost all of them. I lost every single bet I placed, despite the fact that I saw almost all nominated films and that I follow Oscars for than 15 years.

Sorry if it's a bit off-topic. I just wanted to say that this strategy didn't work for me, like, at all.

There is no real data yet if it works. Some patients, not only in US, were treated with it and showed somewhat good results. But for the majority there is no evidence of this med being useful - and it can even worsen things, since huge side effects are likely to show up (suicidal thoughts, hallucinations, cardiac issues etc.). All docs I heard are rather skeptical and don't see this being a medication for the masses, but only for individual cases after thoroughly weighing the pros and cons. Trump is mentioning that med in every media briefing as kind of an availalble cure though and you are wondering why, when the experts and his staff are not that high on it.

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Here is some article regarding the health of Biden. This is what Bidens doc says:


The major factor in every regard is this virus imo, because no one knows what will happen, so lots of uncertainty in the markets. Without this virus, Trumps odds for Republican nominee would surely only include the health factor (so like 1.01 to be expected), but in these times even he has to choose his words very wisely. I agree, this 1.09 for Trump looks indeed huge though, since he gets away with almost everything.

Come on people. Do you seriously expect Trump to not be one of the favorites at any point of time? He will remain the favorite despite his falling approval ratings in my opinion.

You do realize that he has messed up on a cosmic level when it comes to controlling the COVID situation in his country, don't you? Literally, everyone hates Trump these days though he will still probably be re-elected.

I can't seem to find historical data from a quick search, but I believe odds for Trump the Republican Nominee have stayed mostly the same and Biden as the Democratic Nominee went up a little bit (from around 1.1). COVID-19 or not, they were still way higher than I expected. Betfair Exchange as a whole is definitely a lot sharper and more knowledgeable than I am though, so I'm really curious if this reasoning is all chance of death/illness or if there's other major factors too.

@DarkStar_. It might appear higher, however, the sportsbooks may have taken considerations on open unknowns that might occur. The situation under this pandemic is very unpredictable.

There should be a bet if a 2020 election would continue or not hehe. The pandemic might become worse on November.

Worth mentioning that odds for Biden to become the nominee are 1.16 (vig removed probability of 85.58%). They are way higher than I thought they'd be and I'm really curious how much of that pricing is death/health issues and how much of it is a different candidate winning.


FiveThirtyEight is projecting Biden at ~99.9% chance of winning the primary assuming the current race stays the way it is:


I think it's really interesting how Cuomo is now the (Biden/Trump excluded) favourite for becoming the next president. Hillary Clinton was the favourite before he made himself more known which I also thought was odd, but I guess she has/had a decent chance of dropping in and gaining a lot of support should something happen to Biden. Cuomo is probably similar, though I'm not that familiar with how US politics work.

Another interesting stat is the odds for a Biden vs Trump fight: (from Pinnacle)


51.57% implied vig removed for Trump and 48.43% implied vig removed for essentially a bet on Biden. The selection is "Field", but the rules require both Trump and Biden to be viable nominees on election day, which I'm assuming means no death/illness preventing either of them from running.

On the Republican Nominee side, a bet on Trump pays 1.09 (implied vig removed 90.98%):


For someone more familiar with American politics, would it be fair to say that these odds are essentially the odds of him not dropping out due to illness/death? From what I've seen, it doesn't seem like there's any chance he willingly drops out or fails to gain the required delegate count, regardless of what actions he does. 1.09x is also way higher then what I would have expected.

I am certain that the Trump haters on this thread forgot what occured versus Hillary during the 2016 election. Trump was given worse odds on 2016 than what is given today, however, he won.

Also, I am always skeptical of the mainstream media. If they hate him, why and what is their agenda?

@tyKiwanuka. Lupus meds? What is on the data that it works and what is on the data that it does not work? What are doctors saying?

It is the year of the election, he will be more careful and avoid to make false assertions.