Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 33. (Read 6260 times)

There are arguments both in favor and against Trump in this subject. It is true that he stopped the flights from China against the advice of the experts. But at the same time, he delayed the lockdown measures until it was too late. And on top of that, I am surprised by his trust on Hydroxychloroquine, which according to the medical experts have not yet proven to be effective against COVID 19.

I don't think there is any scenario that hurts Biden

1. If the COVID 19 outbreak remains a major issue during the elections in November, which candidate is going to get hurt as a result of it? Will it negatively impact Biden, or will it be more damaging for Trump? Which one may get hurt, if the turnout dips?

2. If the outbreak is having a disproportionate impact on the inner city areas mostly inhabited by the minorities, will that have a negative impact on Biden? If the elderly population is more vulnerable to COVID 19, will that put Trump in trouble? Elderly population in the US is overwhelmingly white non-Hispanic, and if they stay at home, then Trump's chances may dim.

So he suggests looking into injecting/ingesting disinfectant into people, to treat patients. Every kid knows, that disinfectant is only for external use. Now later of course he said, that he was being sarcastic. But a) he doesn't seem to be sarcastic to me and b) lets assume, he was indeed being sarcastic. This is definitely not the right time to be sarcastic in such a bad crisis and with such a life-threatening "advice", that already resulted in people actually drinking disinfectant. This is not funny

I see no way in the world that this would happen. I like to gamble on high odds, but there couldn't be any odd high enough for me, to risk a penny on that. He has too many enemies, even in his close circle imo

I sent you a merit, and it says this cannot be undone.

However, what is done by one man can always be undone by another (generally speaking). I agree with you that it will be a daunting task on its own. But ultimately, all it takes is changing a few words or lines in some document, even if it is the U.S. Constitution. Did Trump think about that, or rather, is he thinking about that now? As they also say, if there is a will, there is a way

This is very unlikely and next to impossible to do. I think it would need something way worse than Corona (don't get me wrong, this is already very bad) to cancel the elections and make Trump de facto lifetime president. We talked about a postponement earlier in this thread and that alone would already be something not that easy to do.

Source: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/presidential-election-postponed/

Is it possible to pull off?

(...)
The Presidential Election Day Act, passed by Congress in 1845, mandates that “the electors of President and Vice President shall be appointed in each State on the Tuesday next after the first Monday in the month of November of the year in which they are to be appointed.” The sitting president has no ability on his own to alter that date — he cannot issue an executive order or otherwise act unilaterally to change the deadline.
(...)
The 20th amendment to the U.S. constitution states that the current president’s four-year term ends at noon on Jan. 20.
(...)
Altering that Jan. 20 deadline would require amending the U.S. Constitution in a matter of months, a virtually impossible feat.
(...)
“We’ve had elections in this country when we were at war, even when we were in [a] civil war. And we should have the elections on time.”

OK. I didn't considered that fact. There is some(?) uncertainty about the Dem nominee. But still, the difference is very small. I would have expected a larger gap. 1.99 vs 1.96 doesn't represent the current voting preferences, I'm afraid.

I don't understand. Does this mean that they don't believe in these opinion polls? Even agencies such as Fox News and Rasmussen Reports are indicating that Trump is trailing Biden by considerable margin.

Not denying what happened in 2016. Back then, the polls failed to measure the silent undercurrents. But the big question is, are they doing just the opposite now, by over-predicting the support for Trump?

I am yet to find a calculation, where Trump receives 270 electoral votes. I have made my calculations and right now Trump is assured of 163 electoral votes (after including TX). Here are the states which I consider leaning towards Trump: AK, LA, MS, MT, UT, IN, MO, SC, TX, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, AL, TN, KY and WV.

He needs a further 107 from the tossup states. I can give FL, GA to him (although Biden is currently ahead in FL as per the latest polls). That gives 208 for Trump and he still needs 62.

OK.. I can give IA (6 votes) and OH (18 votes) as well. Even now, Trump is at 232, needing another 38 votes. To be honest, I don't think that he has any realistic chance of winning any of the remaining tossup states.

(...)

Trump is ahead of Biden, but he is actually behind the Democrats. There is still a little bit more uncertainty about who the democratic nominee will be, while Trump is more or less a a lock to be republican nominee and this reflects in the "Next President" market. The winning party market gives a clearer picture:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128988348

The betting markets include a lot of speculation about the democratic nominee imo. The betting public is not very confident in Biden beating Trump (so am I), but they are very confident in any other nominee than Biden beating Trump.

And on top, the betting markets don't forget. Trump shocked the markets 4 years ago and lots of people still have this in mind. Say what you want about Trump, but he is a good campaigner, while Biden is not.

I really don't understand the betting odds. How can Trump be ahead of Biden?

<...> This could lead to interesting developments in North Korea, which Trump could use to his advantage. Opinions ?

However, Trump was taking he coronavirus seriously from the beginning. On February, he ordered that some of the flights from China should be cancelled. This was against the advice of his advisers on health care.

What was he called by mainstream media after the order? Yes, a racist.

His handling of the crisis is dependent on what month you're talking about. You can't merely lump in 3 months, January, February, and March all together in one rating because each month warrants a separate discussion.

In January you had the WHO lying about the extent of coronavirus to the point where their counsel and advice was useless. China was heavily censoring their data and coronavirus had exceeded China's borders and were spreading around the Eastern hemisphere. The U.S, nor many other countries still did not understand the potency of coronavirus which is why countries did not close down their borders from incoming travel. The U.S took a step in the right direction by banning travel from all areas of China at the end of January which drew criticism from democrats. Nonetheless, it was a damn good move no matter what partisan hacks want to say about it. So Trump's response January was satisfactory.

February is where things fall apart. Trump's response to coronavirus in February ended at the travel ban from China. He did not implement any sort of action that would have mitigated the spread of the virus and in fact, continued to have campaign rallies. To be clear, not Trump nor any democrat (besides only a handful of exceptions) saw coronavirus as being a national crisis. No one had the foresight to predict the U.S. economy would collapse and that coronavirus would begin to kill thousands of people a day. However, I'm sure there were disease experts looking at coronavirus and advised the President on potential ramifications of coronavirus meaning actions that Trump should have taken include ramping up production of PPE, ventilators, and ensuring supply chain logistics could deal with a sudden influx of patients. Creating a pandemic task force and implementing loose social distancing measures are things that could have happened as well. No one is arguing that Trump should have shut down the entire U.S. economy in February. Realistically, you cannot shut down the world's largest economy based upon a few dozen deaths from an upper respiratory illness.

March is when Trump took measures seriously and coordinated a federal response to coronavirus which included national agencies working with states to mitigate spread. He established the coronavirus task force, and implemented CDC guidelines with the "30 Days to stop the spread" sentiment. According to Dr. Fauci, when he advised Trump about a national lock down predicament in March, he listened to the experts.


If we're criticizing Trump's response, I would focus February and I think it's fair to say that his response was pathetic in that month.

yeah, it is a great result, and the crisis is known to influence better rating for the president, in any crisis, in any country, so this is expected that due to corona, no matter response people are more attached to the government, since they are dependent on the government for help, and president is more on tv giving statements and similar

May be. But that is not the right way of looking in to it. Almost all the world leaders are witnessing a spike in their popularity ratings. For example, Angela Merkel was at rock bottom a few months back, and she has bounced back by quite a bit. But I can't witness any similar spike with the approval ratings for Donald Trump. And we need to remember that the pandemic in the United States is likely to get worse in the coming weeks. Another 6 months to go for the elections, and Trump is in for a disastrous re-run. It's going to be a no-contest. Perhaps the most lopsided POTUS elections the US ever had.