Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 30. (Read 6260 times)

The situation in europe is very different.
Usually many more political parties participate in the government and small political parties also can affect the adoption of important state decisions.
In addition, see examples of Spain or Italy.
In the last 10 or 20 years, some major political parties have almost disappeared from the political scene and all new political parties emerged and took over the governance of the state.
In America, something like that is not possible and some new national political party has not emerged in the last 100 years.
From that point of view, america's political system seems outdated and conservative.

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming 

it is a fact that people do not like changes, and that there is a good part of population that is always voting for the current government, no matter how they are doing, although i do think that Merkel is doing good job

regarding USA, it is great thing that their president could have two mandates top, not more than that, look at the situation in most countries where some people are always in the government, or presidency, it has to develop some kind of autocracy, it is inevitable

You would say that Europe doesn't really have two party system because there are more parties but looking at the party voting results, there is almost always two parties that get the most votes anyway and others are not getting enough to even matter. Look at UK for example, Boris and labor has been the two big ones, there is really not anyone else that really matters all that much.

Or look at any other place, look at Germany for example, they are basically dictatorship willingly, Merkel has been at the top for 400 years now and everyone still votes for her because.. well she does a good job, not really a dictator but she has been at the top constantly. So yeah USA has a bad system and should move towards more parties but we never really have like 5 parties all have a voice in anywhere honestly.

 The thing is, if governments do not come together and manage to make it simpler for other parties to get votes or anything, it would be basically political suicide to get a third part that is leaning on one side and nobody wants a third party in the political sphere, only the people do, so it won't be done. Think about it, if you vote for the green party or any party that leans left, that means you are taking votes away from democratic party, which assures a republican win, if you create this weird fascist party (that is even more fascist than republicans I suppose) than you are going to make sure democrats will win it. So there is really no way you can do a third party without doing a fourth party, there has to be equally dividing parties so that it would be not a way to just let the other party win. It is easy to ask for many parties but it is not easy, nobody has the courage to start a big new third party while it would assure a win for the opponents.

I have never visited the United States, and therefore my knowledge may not be as good as yours. There are minor parties in the United States, such as the Libertarian Party, Constitution Party and the Green Party of the United States. The most prominent among them is obviously the Libertarian Party, but even they have failed to win a single seat, either in the House, or the Senate ever since their formation. Gary Johnson managed to get 4.5 million votes during POTUS 2016, but despite all that he got zero electoral votes.

Thank you,  I know it very well,  lived in America in the past.
American democracy is very different from European democracy. We have many political parties and many choices but in America voters have only 2 choices and sometimes it looks they have to choose between 2 bad possibilities like 4 years ago between Hillary and Trump  
I think I remember one article about other political parties in America a few years ago like "green party " and some independant local politicians but it seems they don't have power and resources to reach national level.
If you are from America , do you know something about it and can you share with us?
Is possible that someone else join Presidential election this year, not just candidates from 2 main parties?

The US is having a two-party system, unlike most of the European nations. So most of the population identifies with one of the two main political ideologies. All of those who votes for Trump doesn't necessarily support his views on most of the subjects. They have their own reasons for voting for Trump. For example, the Evangelicals vote for him, in order to create a conservative majority in the SCOTUS.

Since the start of the crisis, Trump has been behaving very irresponsibly and has not taken the necessary measures to protect the population.
He talks a lot more about opening up the economy than it does about the health of the population and saving lives.
Former President Obama commented a few days ago that there was no organization or plan to manage this crisis and that crisis management is chaotic.
Obama made the remarks during a half-hour phone call with former associates of his cabinet, a recording of which was obtained by Yahoo News.
But it seems that Trump still has a large number of people who support him no matter what he does.

So Megyn Kelly did an interview with Tara Reade, Joe Biden's accuser, and the full interview was released recently which can be seen here. It's long, but it's compelling so I'd recommend giving it a listen.

A few main points to highlight -

• Tara Reade alleges Joe Biden inappropriately pushed her against a wall, grabbed under her skirt, and sexually assaulted midday in a corridor at capital hill.
• She alleges prior to this incident, Biden would be overly touchy and recalls one instance claiming Biden touched her neck and rubbed it.
• She claims that when she attempted to report inappropriate office conduct, that she was immediately shut down by her Biden's executive assistant.
• She filled out a document which stated sexual harassment allegations but never made a copy of the complaint.
• She supported Joe Biden on Twitter as recently as 2017 by retweeting statements claiming Joe Biden supported women's rights.

There are some aspects of Tara Reade's allegations that are dicey but there is some circumstantial evidence that would corroborate her story, barring documentation that would support her claim that she did in fact report sexual harassment in Biden's office in 1993. Tara Reade stated that she told multiple people about getting sexually assaulted which include her mother, and her friend "Karen", a pseudonym to maintain her anonymity. Reade's friend "Karen" has verified that she recalls hearing the story Reade told her about getting sexually assaulted while working for Biden's office. Reade's mother called into Larry King's show on CNN asking for advice on how to handle an issue her daughter was having pertaining to a prominent politician without having to go to the press. This video clip can be seen here.

Joe Biden is calling for a National Archives search of his records to uncover any reports involving Tara Reade but has refused to allow a search of his Senate documents that were turned over to the University of Delaware which could potentially contain a record of the complaint made by Reade. Reade has agreed to testifying under oath but refused to take a polygraph unless Joe Biden took also a polygraph, claiming that "'she was not a criminal" and that polygraphs were not admissible in courts regardless.

So the question is, who's telling the truth? I cannot imagine this doesn't damage Joe Biden's chances against Trump. This interview contains extremely damaging information that, if true, would undoubtedly guarantee a Trump victory -- key phrase being "if true". Reade agreeing to testify under oath was a good move, refusing the polygraph was not a good move. If you recall, Christine Blasey Ford took multiple polygraphs while also testifying under oath during the Kavanaugh hearings. I think Reade's allegation contains more evidence than Ford's allegation, but nonetheless the "correct" answer to a polygraph would have been yes.

It seems like not a lot of people are buying Reade's story, reflected by the betting markets. Maybe polling data in the upcoming weeks will be released showing a slight Biden drop, but it looks like Biden might cruise past this controversy. I myself am on the fence of who to believe. Reade did not have a good defense as to why she was retweeting tweets that stated Biden was a champion for women's rights nor was she particularly convincing as to her defense of waiting so long to reveal these allegations. Biden ran with Obama in 2008 and Reade claimed she voted for that ticket. You claimed to have gotten sexually assaulted by a guy, but you turn around and vote for him years later?

 Dude basically appeals to his base and thats it for him, all of human life including his life can be given away just for some votes and popularity. This dude is so obsessed about being loved and getting attention that, he saw all of his supporters going out protesting the lockdown and didn't wore masks and just simply risk their lives for "freedom of dying if the chose to be infected" type of moronic behaviour that Trump probably doesn't wear a mask to appeal to them.

 You have to understand, he can't just suddenly become a better person and a better president, thats not going to happen because he doesn't know how to, maybe Bush could have been a better president if he had a change of heart, maybe papa bush could too, hell even Nixon could have, these people are smart people who knew the right way that would help the majority but decided against it to simply win votes and get their friends at the right places richer, they weren't complete morons who had no idea what they were doing like Trump is.

Phew, this is really hard to tell (read: guess). We don't know how his body will react. He looks fit to me and has no publicly known underlying conditions. Death rate in his age group is around 8%. So one could assume he will not die from it.

Since there are too many variables - just the announcement of him being positive, I could see the odds going to around 1.30+.
What happens afterwards is to be seen then. Boris Johnson is 18 years younger and from what we know, it was close for him. He probably got a way higher Corona dose, since he was even more careless than Trump is/has been. And he also looks a bit unhealthier (all things considered) than Trump.

I think it's not a bad trade opportunity, since the downside is quite low, but upside is good. Even without a positive test in the next weeks/months, the odds won't go lower than ~1.04 with all these economical consequences still to completely unfold (in US and all over the world).

it's really quite amazing, especially considering how inaccurate current testing is. this is trump yesterday, not a single mask in the room:



i get that they are trying to give off a perception of normality, but indeed it seems like really rash behavior.

where do you see the odds going if trump tests positive for the the coronavirus?

Do not really try to reason with BluePowder, he is so far gone that he actually made a full cycle and makes sense in mainstream media for probably the biggest wrong reason there is yet the result makes him right while the path he took was wrong. This is USA, there is a million thing goes under the behind closed doors, however voting is voting, you go to vote and if people do not vote for someone they can't win.

If you want statistics, basically look at the day Obama won and how many people was there to watch his inauguration, and also take a look at Trumps. It is obvious that Trump is the most divisive president USA has ever had, that doesn't mean he won't win, he might, but that doesn't change that there is 50% who hate him as well as 50% who love him.

That’s incorrect (as yet). Spain has been under severe lockdown until Saturday the 26/04/2020 (only essential working activity and purchase of provisions were allowed), where parents were allowed to go out with their kids for a (theoretical) short period of time.

On the 02/05/2020, the rest of the population people began to have some liberty to do some non-essential business such as going out for a walk (permissible activity hours assigned by age layers). People being people are often irresponsible, and certainly do not all comply with the fineprint, but there has not been any spike yet (quite on the contrary, numbers of both deaths and contagions are decreasing day by day).

Tomorrow, 51% of Spain enter a new phase, with more liberties and smaller business being able to open providing they comply with the guidelined security measures. This is going to be a real test to the whole pandemic control system there, but as yet, nothing has skyrocketed in terms of number (although I personally expect them to spike in the coming days by sheer logic after relaxing the confinement terms and cases).

^^^^ Infection rates skyrocketed in countries such as Italy and Spain, when they partially relaxed the lockdown. If the same happens in the United States as well, then Trump would be in big trouble. Already the state of New York has one of the highest infection rates in the world (17,653 cases per million, when compared to 5,661 for Spain and 3,610 for Italy). Trump may or may not get infected with COVID. But his approval ratings are going to fall steeply in the coming months if the situation doesn't improve.

Those presidents who didn't take the virus seriously are responsible for thousands of additional deaths. I am not just talking about Trump. There are at least a dozen others, including Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico and Stefan Löfven of Sweden.

Looks like we have a little Corona cluster in and around the White House now. We had one of Trumps valets, Mike Pence's press secretary and a personal assitant of Ivanka Trump testing positive in the last days.

Trump himself and the people around him get tested every day now. It's good to discover the virus early, but since there is no real treatment yet and Trump still refuses to wear a mask, he is always in danger to catch that virus and he is among the vulnerable persons just by his age.

Just recently Pence visited a hospital, without wearing a mask:


Source: https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/04/coronavirus-mike-pence-flouts-hospital-mask-rule.html

It's quite amazing that neither Trump nor Pence have caught that virus yet, regarding the risk they (have to) take each day. With the latest news about the cases near the WH, the market for Republican nominee saw some action as well and there is now a big lay for Trump being nominee (it's not from me, if anybody thinks that^^):


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128999265

18k lay is quite a big amount in this market and looks like someone is speculating on a) Trump getting tested positive or b) the situation in the US getting so bad, that Trump comes under huge pressure. To me it looks like the situation is all but under control in the US, while they are already re-opening their economy and public life step by step. I wonder what would have to happen non-healthwise for Trump to NOT be republican nominee.

Save your money.. I read a few of your comments, you don't understand a thing about US politics.

Tulsi got less votes than every other woman. how is that going to help. she's not even welcome in the DNC. she already announced she's not returning next year and the DNC blacklisted her, on top of that she has a $50 mill lawsuit against Killary.

Gabbard is someone who can get additional votes for Biden. I mean votes outside the traditional Democratic vote block. And she may help Biden in swing states and with some of the demographic groups. On the other hand, Kamala Harris may not get any additional votes for Biden. She can help him only in deep-Blue states and deep-Red states.

@tyKiwanuka, I haven't decided whether I should make a bet in favor of Tulsi for veep. May be I'll, but with a very small amount. The only confirmed bet as of now is in favor of Biden for the 2020 POTUS elections.

Agreed! Do you read a lot about American politics?

In any case, if I was given the power to choose who would run under the democratic party, I like Bernie Sanders and Tulsi. They are scared of people who want real change, however hehehe.