Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 31. (Read 6260 times)

We talked about Bidens health issues earlier and it was actually part of my reasoning for opening a trade on Cuomo. Not what I hope for, but from an investment point it maybe makes sense (or for me it does look valuable).

If you are a Hillary believer (are there these people ? ), there is a nice free bet opportunity between Betonline/Betfair. Betonline has @76 for Hillary next president (or winning the election to be precise) and you can lay her at @36+ at Betfair. If I max out my limit at Betonline, it would look like this:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures#

Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

It's a bit mixed up, because Betonline is in USD and the exchange in Euro. But you basically get your money back with the lay at the exchange and thus have a freebet on Hillary with the chance to win 10,000+ USD/EURO in the unlikely event of Hillary being the next president. You just need to have enough money at Betonline/Betfair. But it also works with smaller stakes of course.

You can also choose to make it a classic surebet. In that case you would win around 280,- Euro no matter the outcome of the election.

This is probably more an educational post, but shows what is possible.

4 days later and it's currently


Sportsbet.io had Clinton @10.00 odds a couple days ago. As of now:


Well? Are bookies thowing some bait? (i'm being tempted to take the bait lol) or is Hillary actually gaining ground? What @figmentofmyass said a few days ago in this thread got me thinking for a bit:

Hmm, if I am not mistaken, Biden repeatedly said, that it will be a woman. Politicians are rarely to be trusted with their words, but the betting markets also have no male candidate listed among the favourites:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures

The exchanges have Sanders and Romney listed with more or less the same odds (around @100.00) as B. Obama. Cuomo is 230+ and you can bet on Biden for 830^^

@Vishnu.Reang

Since you mentioned Gabbard. You can see she is @61.00 in the screenshot - at Betfair Exchange she is @410.00, so always shop for the best odds, makes a difference longterm

What about some of those primary candidates, such as Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand? Personally, I would prefer someone who is energetic and popular with the youth, such as Tulsi Gabbard. He's 77 years old, and non-Hispanic white. He needs a running mate, who is young, and non-white. Someone who can attract the youth vote.

Similar to what the polls said about Hillary and Trump on the last election hehe.

I speculate that Biden's running mate might be a woman. The democrats want their first woman president after their first black president hehehehe.

The only way for this is through 77 year old Biden who the democrats will make sure not finish his term.

Here is an excellent short clip for those of you stuggling with problem solving and critical thinking. Which seems to be most of the forum. Its  short 15 min and gets to the point.

It shows how even the liberal young dued didn't let flawed polls and media rackets get in the way and put his own $1000 cash on Trump, despite not voting for him. That's a pretty powerful statement so its worth watching. You always hear things like put your money where your mouth is and he actally did, here he was in May 2016 predicting with analysis, not just wild prediction who would win.

A must watch for your own benefit even if you're a Demonrat, you can definitely learn from it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LibRNYJmZ-I

Not really , your out to lunch. Hillary has blood and corruption on her hands since the 1970's when she was fired from government. She should be a 5% candidate, its exactly the media who got her to 50% and a fighting chance. I think you need to back to the drawing board for more research.

Last election results was enough to prove that media isn't the real game changer. They are just a part of election drama and Hillary clinton knows that much better than anyone. American citizens were enough aware about colorful media's election related news and prediction last time and that's gonna be same for upcoming election too. Its common that most news channel will try their best to increase their TRP but finally voters are the real game changer.

Expecting 90% is kinda over ambitious IMO where recent corona situation will definitely going to be a big issue for trump. Specially who have already lost their family members due to covid19 will think twice before submitting their vote for trump. Lack of preparation in health sector is clearly showing to all US citizens but still trump is trying to say that they were well prepared. I don't think US citizen will left this matter so easily.    

Joe was nowhere a few months ago, he was on his deathbead as far as the public was concerned, old, damaged, corrupt, do nothing all his life but enrich his family. Now he's #1 because this is how the game is played.

The Democrats choose their candidate behind closed doors and have done so since 1980.  They put a bunch of players on the stage so everyone is represented, blacks, jews, gays, women etc. but the whole game is for those people to bring their people to the main party candidate which they choose and is aligned with their vision. As time goes on, they all drop out and endorse the main candidate. who in this case is so bad that he needs full damage control from the media. The endorsments are made regardless if the main candidate is aligned with the playera 2-7 ,,  a perfect example is Pete who praised Bernie all his lie and even wrote about him in college, but by the time it came to get out he endorsed creepy Joe.  who goes from ditching their life long hero for a hair sniffing pervert.

Should things turn bad for the chosen hero, he/she passes the delegates to the backup player.

Quite frankly Bernie won in 2016 and 2020 .. Why do you think scabs like Whoopi Golderberg call Bernie on live TV to ask humiliating questions like "all the public wants to know is why you haven't dropped out" despite being a close second, and first when you take away the gifted delegates from the players I just mentioned.


I meant 90% of voters, not 90% of the population.

It seems to me that the polls lately are no longer as reliable as they used to be.
Polls aren't just wrong with US presidential election and Trump's victory but also didn't predict that Britain would decide to leave the EU in the referendum.
Trump has been helped quite a bit by the Hillary Clinton's affair with the use of private emails for official purposes and it's convenient that the details of this affair were made public just before the presidential election  
And of course, let's not forget many fake news on FB and other social networks.

The polls you see on TV are fake. Why do you think they have such things as liberal polling firms ? You can create any result you want out of a poll, even when the poll numbers don't look good, you can break it down until you get the stat you want, you can even throw it out and start over, like the famous 97% fake climate science poll, where they had to discard 99% of the data to get the fake 97% stat. Politicial polls are even easier since your address, family name, age, etc is pretty close to a certain predictor of you vote for, not to mention the other things a firm might have on your like mined data or results of a previous poll.

Maybe this will ring some bells in the heads of the sleeping idiots. there is a meme going around now of Bill Gates and his favorite books, the top book on his desk is something like "how to cheat on statistics"

Dude is a trumper, do you really expect him to make sense? Dude is basically saying Trump would get 90% of the votes in a fair election, 90% of the votes! That is over 100 million votes, to think that there is over 100 million people who would vote republican is either a moron or a troll, I rely on the second one because no serious person would say something as stupid as 90% However one thing is for sure, polls do not matter, people think it matters but it really does not.

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden was basically head to head, few big long lines of voting that took 7 hours to be able to vote sent all the youth away because why bother waiting in line for 7 hours in exchange of your whole future, and we got ourselves a HUGE lead with Biden. It was literally just one line difference to whole future of USA, so do not really rely on polls that much.

From where did you get this idea about "fake polls"? Opinion polls and exit polls have resembled the actual results very closely, at least for the past several decades. However, what happened in 2016 was an exception. Many of the Trump supporters in the rust-belt region never disclosed their voting preference to the opinion polls, because of fear of backlash against them. Also, the opinion polls at that time over-predicted the voter turnout among the Democrat voters.

If they are fake-raising those numbers, this will probably result in the exact opposite of what they want to achieve If Biden leads the polls, you have a) some undecided, but likely democratic, voters not giving their vote, because polls say Biden will win anyway and b) this will motivate the undecided, but likely republican, voters to actually participate.

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Agree. Biden looks very fragile to me, which is of course not unusual for a person of his age; he often seems a bit clumsy and is not very good at defending himself. But he also lacks leadership, personality, charisma. The political/bias aspects aside, Trump is a good leader and has personality - whether you like his leadership/personality is another story.

In a fair and open world without cheat by mail voting.. Trump wins 90% of the vote hands down.

but that's not the world we live in. the media is owned by the same people that want him out and they will be raising Joe's fake poll numbers
like they did with Hillary as time goes on.  for do nothing democrats it pays to lie and cheat. just look at Bloomberg, day one he announced no candidate investigations for Dems but yes for Trump..
 
Pretty sure Trump will come out on top. He should get 90% of the vote but because of the rigged society we live in he will win with 52% or so.

Biden! really if he had not received Obama's support to win, his delegates were literally called to vote for him, but as they mention in the OP under the scheme of a system that left out "Bernie" and not  the worst candidate for president "Biden."

As the matter goes from "elections" to a bet If it was "Bernie" vs Trump: "Bernie"
Now in the current plane "Biden" - "Kuomo" - "Other" vs "Trump": Trump..

My potodds:
Only 4 presidents have not been re elected from 1900.
In the past elections, his candidacy induces Democrats and Republicans its laughs. This election year "concern"

Where are you pulling the 90% figure from? Sanders was leading Trump in polls but those polls were taken with many democratic candidates in the field. This tends to over inflate the poll numbers because there isn't media scrutiny or attacks from the opposition against the candidate until they become the clear nomination.

Right now, Trump is getting a bump in the polls because of the whole Reade situation but also because he's probably suffering dementia. If Sanders were to be in his place, he'd be hounded for his policies being overly socialized. No candidate is immune to oppo research and that includes Sanders.

never say never. everyone thought trump was toast after the "grab em by the pussy" saga. look where we are now! if the economy tanks into the election, people aren't gonna be loving trump.


it didn't take long for republicans to pile on about the sexual misconduct allegations. check out trump's latest campaign ad: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/05/01/trump_campaign_ad_hits_biden_on_tara_reade_allegation_believe_all_women.html

the odds i'm seeing:
trump 48% to win
biden 41% to win

https://odds.watch/trump-2020

a lot can change in 5-6 months though, especially in this pandemic atmosphere. i truly wonder if another democrat might emerge, if only because of biden's apparent health issues.

@tyKiwanuka, great thread.  I can't believe I only just noticed it.


Sanders had a very well marketed campaign, but his popularity wasn't main-stream at all.  Most Americans don't want a socialist president, and even if they got one, his powers would be limited.  Any socialist policies he would try to impose would have to be approved by Congress and the Senate.  In Sanders' case he would have no support from Republicans (of course) and very little from Democrats.  A Sanders administration would be mired with decent from both houses, and be rendered largely ineffective.  Assuming he could have beat Trump, anyway, which I highly doubt.



The polls seem to favor Biden, but polls are wrong more often than not.  In reality polls are a joke, often posing questions designed to illicit the response the pollsters want.  I really believe that Biden doesn't have a chance against Trump.  I think the Democrats are starting to see it as well.  I doubt they'll give the nomination to anyone else, but I think they are desperate to find a strong running mate for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if they are negotiating with Cuomo, who seems to be the Democrats' Darling Du Jour.

Sanders had a good chance of defeating Trump (I would say around 90%), but I would rather say that Biden is having a higher chance. Sanders is too far to the left, and the moderate voters in swing states may not like him. Biden is regarded as one of the center-left candidates, and he may be able to gain votes in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia.etc. Sanders is very popular among the youth and the Hispanic voters. But he trails among the black voters real bad.