20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that...
I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck
I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.
Careful. We may go much lower in the interim. Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses. Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening.
If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line. 2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019.
I was clearly overinvested in Q4 2017. I can hodl it all right now.
I am just going to morgtage again, for second time in my life, for another property that I
feel know it is clearly well under market price. My regular income cannot cover it, but I do have enough FIAT savings to pay it for almost 10 years even with no income and without having to sell my Bitcoins.
I guess the worst that it could happen is that I would need to sell the property (probably for more than I am buying it).
As I said I am extremely conservative, but it is more risky bet I have ever made in my life. Wouldn't like to have to sell my Bitcoins at a "bad price". But I can perfectly hodl for 5+ years no matter what.
It's just that I thought I would never buy anything on debt/mortgage again (already paid my main home).... but sometimes you don't have any choice if you don't want to miss the train.
If Bitcoin pumps sometime in the next 5 years I will have made the best decision in my life. If it doesn't, I will probably have to sell the property. Hopefully not losing any money, but it will be a failure for me.
