Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1481. (Read 26709890 times)

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This is a kind of new question regarding where we are at because it largely seems that we have deviated around 10% or so outside of the don't wake me up zone and we have not yet corrected in any kind of significant amount .. so then maybe we could consider a new zone of $30k to $50k - but that seems to be TOO BIG of a zone and therefore not really saying very much.  It seem that there would be some kind of resistance before getting to the current ATH, and surely when we start to get close to the current ATH (in this case $69k) resistance will frequently fade away.. so then a question might still concern at which points between here and the ATH might constitute some resistance?  Perhaps right around $45k to $55k.. so the middle of that would be $50k, so then what do we do with that information?

If we are already mostly stocked up on BTC that is one story, if we are not mostly stocked up on BTC and we are still accumulating, then I doubt that anyone should be stopping, even though I know that people get worried about buying on the way up, so what can we say?  The answers would be in the hands of each of us in regards to how long we may have had been stocking (and stacking) sats and were we engaged in such activities in the last year and a half while prices were lower than they are now, and even much lower than they are now.. .. even our low of $15,479 is about a 58% discount as compared to current prices.. so whether we have any dips or not, there are needs to decide what to do if you had not been sufficiently and adequately stacking in the last 18 months or so. 

I understand that some folks do not have anywhere near enough of a cashflow to be able to feel comfortable in terms of the quantity of BTC that they had acquired, and even the person who had been stacking fairly aggressively since June 1, 2020 (after witnessing March 2020 type liquidity events and the craziness of money printing) at $300 per week would have invested around $54k into bitcoin, and would have accumulated about 2.3187 BTC (current value of around $62,600), and so I would suggest that such person should be feeling as if s/he is in a decently good place in terms of having some kind of a meaningful stack of BTC for the amount of time that s/he spent stacking..and maybe even foregoing some other pleasures in life by directing some of his/her income towards bitcoin.


Does not hurt to have some extra space, and maybe within a kind of bounds that it does not become burdensome to maintain.. and sometimes considering splurging on some kinds of luxury goods can sometimes have extra costs.. such as having to hire maintenance people..  yachts and airplanes and gosh do you buy your own but then you might still need a pilot, even though some folks do learn how to be pilots and captains of large boats.  Even a good sized mansion.. how much help is needed to maintain it, and who is going to oversee the hired help?


We could say that 4x in 18 months is fairly bullish in normal terms but surely if such a scenario would end up playing out, it seems to be fairly bearish in terms of how much the exponential price rises are diminishing... and sometimes it can be unclear in regards to where to start our measurement.. a kind of jumping off point. 

For the 2017 run I like to use $250 because we were there so long in 2015... So that would be about 78x for that run up to $19,666. 

For the 2021 run, I like to use $4,200 because it was the ballpark of the price arena for the April 2019 run, but then also we returned to that price arena in late 2019 and then of course during that flash crash of 2020, so it more or less seems like fair jumping off points for measuring the extent of the price run.  So that would be about 16.5x for that run up to $69k

So far nothing really concrete has popped off as a jumping off point, except maybe so far something like $30k... so gosh if we are talking 18months that is mid 2025. .is that going to be the peak or what if we talk about 2 years which brings us to the end of 2025.
 Do your numbers change for that?  4x from $30k seems pretty wimpy, and even 5x or 6x does not really seem outrageous.. those 4x to 6x (which would be $120k to $180k) kinds of trajectories seem pretty conservative overall.. and then maybe if we extend Saylor kinds of numbers out to 2 years rather than one year, then middle trajectories might be 8x to 15x (which would be $240k to $450k so then the higher end of the trajectories would be something like 20x to 30x. .which would still be under $1million, and I feel bad because even the last cycle I had given $1.5million and above as having a 0.5% chance, so it does not really seem fair to stop at less than $1 million in our trajectories, so I think maybe one more set of kind of fantasy trajectories might need to include supra $1.2 million to $2.4 million or maybe even higher to be all inclusive.. even if the odds are low for such higher numbers would end up being 40x to 80x (and more). .not very likely but still perhaps getting into the less than 1% odds territory and of course easier to reach the prices at the lower ends of the spectrum of around $1.2 million versus something at the higher end like $2.4 million and above.. but still seems to be non-zero odds.

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It’s gonna be a thing of beauty, are you ready?



@MikybullCrypto
BTC tends to hit new ATH 6 months after halving.

We are still in the pre-bull phase.

https://x.com/mikybullcrypto/status/1723329710107558263


@Washigorira
BTC 1st Parabolic Advance in progress. 📈🚀

It's just the beginning.

pic sharing
https://x.com/washigorira/status/1723401109673214462

https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/11/10/armistice-day-and-the-empire-a-name-change-and-the-catastrophe-that-followed/

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The more Saylor and others talk about their profits, the more their stocks will go up and the more people will see these consistent results and want to try it themselves.
My prediction is that it's not going to stop here. Fink and Saylor are going to keep showing profit and the more they show the more their stocks go up, the more people buy bitcoin and the more fuel they'll have to keep going. We're witnessing the bitcoin snowball effect. Possibly the biggest price explosion in bitcoin's history when it comes to market cap is ahead of us.

Saylor has said he believes Bitcoin will x10 over the next 12 months. This shouldn’t surprise anyone given how much BTC he owns personally and with his company. However, as bullish as I am, I think we are more likely to see a x4 over the next 18 months, which isn’t as bullish as Saylor but is still pretty damn bullish in my opinion.

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Happy Armistice Day Bitcoinland. It was 105 years ago today that the Great War ended.

Let's hear it for peace and the avoidance of war... more diplomacy and less militarism.

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Indeed...  and they also build bitcoin funded, giant garages with a useless 2nd floor shrink office.
(Well, maybe not totally useless... One could always go up there, lie on the couch and spout all one's sob stories to an imaginary therapist with a fancy college daygree)

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I wont give you a merit but I liked the chart.

If you went into the chart numbers and explained them better you would have gotten a few merits.

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