Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 16267. (Read 26609360 times)

LOL, how can it be "wrong" when it hasn't happened yet? ATH won't count by the way, it has to be a bonafide floor. (No dips!) That might take months to confirm.

That said, I would happily (sooner) be wrong. 

Nice work.

I wonder what it would look like if you used market cap instead of price, i.e. adjusted for the monetary inflation of bitcoin? I know that when using market cap btc has never gone below previous ATH wave highs on each floor.

Awe  Fuck... let me fix the reference.. .because I cited you in the wrong post, earlier...  Although, in your response, you knew what I was talking about.   This one here has the proper reference.... .





I understand what you are saying; however, I still think that you gotta figure out a way to keep cash flowing into bitcoin.. and I am not just saying because I put my money where my mouth is.

I will give you a hypothetical first, and then I will also describe what I did in 2015.


1) Hypothetical:   
 Let's say that you have a real modest income of about $3k per month.
a)  you spend about $2k per month on food, housing, entertainment, maintaining an emergency fund, feeding the kids throw-up food, etc....
b) you spend about $1k per month on various investments including your business and projects.


All I am saying is take 1% of that.. and of course, you could do even lower than 1%, but bitcoin is likely to continue to be a very good long term investment.  You could consider the whole income - and that would be $30 per month into bitcoin (which could be too high), or you could just consider the business related income which would cause you to inject $10 per month into bitcoin.  Of course you could choose a smaller amount, like .5%, yet my point is that you should continue to set aside something for bitcoin.,. even if you have already invested into bitcoin because there continues to be few other investments that are long term going to be as good as bitcoin.


2) what I did in 2015:  I had spent the whole of 2014 investing into bitcoin, so at the end of 2014, I felt that I had pretty much established my investment stake into bitcoin.  In the beginning of 2015, my plan was to continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin throughout 2015 and into the future; however, to be a hell-of-a lot less aggressive about my investment (as compared with my 2014 approach), since by then, I felt that I had already established a very decent and respectable bitcoin stake.  So, yeah, in essence, I was going to ratchet down to something like 1% per month or some similar amount that worked with my then cashflow.

In late January 2015, I encountered an unexpected business situation, that pretty much screwed up my cashflow from February 2015 until about December 2015 - and the first couple of months were the worst (February and March), but the whole year was kind of fucked in terms of my cashflow.. so yeah, I did have to stop buying bitcoins for the year; however, I only completely stopped in February and March.. while I reassessed and reorganized, and even April, May and June, I was able to begin to buy very small quantities of bitcoin.  What happened through the remainder of the year was that I had a whole hell-of-a-lot of real small transactions; however, throughout the totality of my down period, I was still able to increase my bitcoin stash by about 1.5% for the entire year through my extensively streamlined purchases of BTC... .. and it ends up that those 2015 purchases had pretty much averaged in the $250 per BTC territory, which ends up being between 16x and 20x (depending on if we refer to current prices or the ATH prices from nearly a month ago).

Sure, maybe 2015 was a bit of a unique situation because the prices were so low; however, I still think that it is prudent to continue to invest in bitcoin - which personally, I continue to do, even though I have a stash that is quite decent and adequate - but it also continues to grow on a regular basis, even if only a couple percentage points a year.




Well, I will concede that there can be a variety of approaches and perspectives about this particular topic, but I doubt that your characterization of continuing to buy or invest in bitcoin is fair or accurately made out to be "stupid.

Surely, I can imagine hypothetical scenarios in which people would be selling and not buying more, and those would be scenarios in which they have way too fucking many bitcoins and they are over allocated in bitcoins, and this surely does not seem to be the case with RJClarke..

Accordingly, we should be attempting to consider the case in front of us, rather than some hypothetical situation that is not currently in front of us... and then asserting that it would be "stupid" based on some non-existent hypothetical situation.

I know that your hypothetical situation does not apply here because RJClarke has been making assertions that he would be able to cash out certain portions of his bitcoin stash if the price were to go up to some much higher level such as 3x or 5x or 7x... so in other words, RJC is not currently cashing out of his bitcoins and RJC is not currently overinvested in bitcoin.. therefore, RJC is waiting, hoping and possibly praying (between puke episodes) for BTC prices to appreciate more...

It is my view that in a large number of situation (in which someone does not perceive himself to be overinvested in BTC), then he should continue with accumulation strategies - unless of course, he does not believe bitcoin to be a good investment.  Anyone who thinks that it is reasonable that bitcoin could double in less than 10 years, should be taking prudent steps to continue to invest in bitcoin because that means that he believe bitcoin to be a good investment, and there are not too many investments that you can have that level of confidence.

of course the strategy could differ from mine, and maybe it would be a strategy to just accumulate dollars in a bitcoin fund and to have those dollars ready to buy on dips, otherwise dollar cost averaging might work, too.



I do something like what you are doing, too; however, I do not characterize what I am doing as gambling.  I do characterize what I am doing as a form of hedging my bets in terms of preparing for the downsides and attempting to profit from what seems to be nearly inevitable volatility.  If anything bitcoin seems to be nearly guaranteed to be volatile, and selling on the way up and buying on the way down remain decent strategies to profit from volatility, so long as BTC prices go up in the long run (and BTC prices going up in the long run is a kind of built in presumption that I have that I believe to NOT be based on gambling, but instead my perspective of the solidness of a variety of ongoing BTC fundamentals). 

If you believe yourself to be engaged in gambling, rather than investment, then likely you do not have confidence in the solidness of the underlying BTC fundamentals.

None of these perspectives need to be set in stone, and for this reason if your perspective about bitcoin changes, then it would also be prudent of you to consider ways to adapt your strategy based on your changed perspective.

They have both Bitcoin Segwit and Bitcoin Cash. As have all addresses untouched since the split. Right? Riiiight?

After all, as a true Bitcoiner, I imparted the wisdom to HODL.

If you buy enough bitcoins at the beginning (a much lower price), then it is stupid if you want to increase your bitcoin by + 1% and invest twice as much.
You understand ? (English is not my native language.)

But I gamble too :-) Selling tops, buying dips and extract cash. (with 5% of my long term holdings)
Buy back is not wise because you can lose everything(100%) and everything you can win is the only (5%). ... but good for gamblers :-)

I am aware this is a good idea but all my "spare cash" has gone on a building project we have nearly completed. I have had no spare fiat. I had a goal regarding the minimum amount of btc I'd like to hodl from the start and this has been increased by bcash coming along so I am pretty content with what I have. Always nice to have more but as I said, I've had other projects in the go and I have to inject money there.

The last square is wrong! His prediction is very conservative. But what will happen is exactly like on Square No. 3!

The new ATH will probably be between 30 Sept < > 2-3 Oct. And the $10.000$ will be probably around Christmas!       

Fidelity is mining Bitcoin!

https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/28/fidelity-ceo-abigail-johnson-says-the-company-is-mining-cryptocurrencies/amp/

^{(actually just on 21.co cards but still)}

 

you seem to be using the term "incremental"   WRONGLY!!!!!!         

You said bitcoins, not bitcoin cash coins. I'm sure that you meant Bitcoin Cash (BCH), correct? Right? Riiiight?

I am not sure if the above is a good proclamation....

Sure it is good to attempt to lower your cost per BTC, but it seems like a mind block, and even a form of inactivity to NOT continue to acquire BTC (on dips, for example).. especially if you have an ongoing cashflow, a certain percentage of your cashflow could go to bitcoin, no? 

Even 1% might be sufficient, no?

The amount could even be less than 1%, and still be good... depending on tailoring the amount to your own situation.

END list, good luck!

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I thought you were the inveterate bachelor? How's mom feel about that investment? Returns from siblings?

Three kids, two grandkids here. Each an owner of a paper wallet with a number of bitcoins. I send another dose to each address from time to time.

Most of these professionals are very rich from their strategy so they don't really care.

People with no money that live in the "real economy" getting screwed by the financial industry, they should be upset.

Bitcoin is a better story in terms of currency. Transparent, decentralised and permissionless. Global, agnostic and, for the considerable future, rising like a meteor.

It will continue to attract more and more people trying to evade the current financial system that is reeling under debt and looming destruction of value. It can't be stopped so it won't be stopped.

You're still early, so hang on....... hang on and HODL for dear life.

Is it ok to be proud that we saw something years ago that highly paid and public "professionals" are only just realizing? Is a moment of smugness in order?

Source : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-28/macquarie-lashes-out-jamie-dimon-modern-finance-not-bitcoin-real-fraud


You see that ?

It's happening ... the epiphany moment of Bitcoin.

It's funny, I just can't see it doubling into this heights so soon.

But then again .. I didn't think we would reach 4000 (or even scratch 5000) 3-4 months ago.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14320675/1/bitcoin-is-a-fraud-says-wolf-of-wall-street-jordan-belfort.html

So much laughable bullshit in this MSM article, I don't even know where to start. They've really outdone themselves this time.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/28/north-korean-hackers-attempts-to-steal-bitcoin-are-a-huge-wake-up-call-commentary.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104704799&yptr=yahoo