It sounded a bit strange to me to sell 2 years worth, and that was part of the reason that I was motivated to make a kind of hypothetical to try to make it seem like it makes sense, yet now you have disclosed some additional facts that make it even more complicated.. so I am thinking that I am just going to leave it.
Yes please, just leave it.
We're all gentlemen here, we don't speak the size of other WO-members' stash....
you guys can speak about my 0.0021 BTC anytime!
Currently, your goal should be at least 0.21 BTC.. while it is still reachable. In the past few years, I have frequently proclaimed that I have more than 3x the current minimal target, and surely part of any successful bitcoin may well be able to establish reasonable goals to be able to hang onto various threshold amounts that he would consider to be meaningful towards providing more options for him down the road... and yeah, if we have even reached a status of over accumulation, we might be able to start to withdraw from our stash based on either price or time. I personally believe that the price based withdrawal methods should come into play prior to the time-based withdrawal methods, yet we need to come to an assessment that we have reached a state of overaccumulation within the context of our own circumstances.
I become a bit confused myself from time to time in terms of figuring out the difference between being in an overaccumulation status as compared with being in fuck you status. I used to consider entry-level fuck you status to be between 20x and 30x of your annual salary (or at least your annual anticipated expenses), yet I have more recently come to the conclusion that entry-level fuck you status could be as low as 10x your annual income (expenses) if you are mostly valuing your BTC stash from the 200-WMA... so accordingly entry-level fuck you status could well be anywhere between 10 years and 25 years of your annual expenses, and guys have to figure out how conservative that they might want to be in terms of having some kind of a cushion.
Regarding overaccumulation status that is more difficult to establish, especially since initially I had thought that having bitcoin as 10% of our investment portfolio would be prudent, so if the bitcoin appreciates or if you invest more than your allocation target, then it would seem that you would be in an overaccumulation status. More recently (mostly since 2020) I have begun to consider 5% to 25% to be reasonable BTC allocation investment targets, so within that range a person could be whimpy or aggressive in terms of setting his target, so then overaccumulation could come from either investing beyond the target or from the BTC price appreciating to such an extent that it goes beyond the target.. so then part of the question might come from how much beyond the target does BTC valuation need to appreciate before a status of BTC overaccumulation should reasonably be assessed.
I no longer really believe in the idea of reallocating back to your allocation levels, but to allow the winners to ride.. so perhaps overaccumulation could still be assessed within the extent to which any guy might presume that his BTC valuation level has gone way beyond his initial allocation.. perhaps if the initial target was 25%, yet through bitcoin price appreciation, it had become more than 50% of the investment portfolio, then maybe that doubling of the allocation might be a sufficient surplus to feel free to sell some beyond such double overallocation levels? I am not claiming to really know the answer, since even for myself, in around late 2014, I had come to the conclusion that 10% was sufficient allocation to bitcoin, so I thought that my continuing to buy BTC during 2015 and reaching something like 13.5% allocation to bitcoin was also overallocation, yet even though I authorized myself to sell some small amounts of BTC on the way up, I tended to remain somewhat afraid to sell any large amounts of BTC so my allocation went up to 85%-ish in late 2017 and then dropped back down to 40%-ish in 2018 and 2019 and then it want back up to 90%-ish in 2021 and dropped back down to 60%-ish in 2022, and I think currently it is back into the 85%-ish areas.. .. so I think that with me there is a bit of overaccumulation, even though I continue to be reluctant to overly engage in selling my winners (which is BTC).
I don't claim to know the answers, even though I am trying to still suggest that getting to some point of overaccumulation within your own definitions would help to assess if you have put yourself into a position of having more options, including that potentially evaluating how much is enough in light of your other assets, figuring out the extent to which you are going to be able to continue to accumulate (if needed), and then surely later if you have assessed yourself to have had reached overaccumulation levels, then figuring out if you might be able to engage in price-based or time-based withdrawals in terms of both budgets that you might have and perhaps even if you want to make sure that you continue to maintain a certain quantity of BTC or not.. I surely would like to try to maintain at least 0.63 BTC or more, but sometimes there might not be enough of a cushion.. and surely it is difficult to imagine that even someone with 0.21 BTC would not still be in his accumulation stage, yet people are at different points in their life too in terms of their abilities to continue to accumulate and if they might have to start to consider withdrawal techniques.. preferably sustainable withdrawal techniques rather than getting in and out of bitcoin, which does not seem to be a preferable approach.
