Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27660. (Read 26712678 times)

First time I ever heard about MRO was in one of your posts on this thread. Great discovery I made thanks to you.

In general, I agree.  LTC for example, is, in my opinion, done.  DOGE is in inflationary hell and doomed.  Only feature coins which provide useful novel functionality have a snowball's chance at this point.  They all have a story, but almost all are stories about unicorns and rainbows.  Some very small number can turn those into pump and dump gold, but I prefer to avoid that space.  I think privacy is the biggest feature of all.

The space is watched very closely by punters who want to be in the next bitcoin, so in general, unless you get lucky or do a lot of work, it's not even worth looking past the first 15 in the coinmarketcap.com list, which you then filter for fundamental factors.  As usual, I will plug MRO as the exception:  It is newly listed on one minor exchange, so cap is still low.  When more exchanges get comfortable with the new technology, it will get listed on all the major alt exchanges, if they are self-interested rational actors.

Oh, oh, oh!  I have an opinion!

I think currencies are a natural monopoly.  There are two known markets for global instant liquidity:  The transparent liquidity market, and the private liquidity market.  BTC + one alt will win.  The rest will be very minor players, and almost all will die of starvation.

When DRK was the only real horse in the privacy-enhanced market, I invested, with success.  I sold it and bought MRO because it has the best tech (clone of BCN) a viable development team and no premine (BCN is a scamcoin).  So far that is working very well.  MRO dominates cryptonote hash power completely.   Price is up 20x since I bought in, albiet down from the 40x mark during the initial listing bubble.  I expect many bubbles to come, a la BTC, but faster.

DRK is pumping right now because evan is a master operator, but I don't think it is sustainable because the tech is not going to provide the kind of privacy guarantees required when your wealth or even your life are at stake.  MRO plus TOR will do that now, but MRO code is advancing rapidly (and open source, unlike DRK).  I'm happy with the trajectory so far.

Obligatory:

Where's the fun in here? Where are the pics? AND WHERE'S ADAM?!?!?!

TO DA MOOOON!!!!1

You answered your own first point with your last. Those few businesses do not take away from the countless others in regard to is infrastructure being built.
keep dreaming of $120 but absent am actual flaw with the protocol just not gonna happen. Why do you ignore all the non-chinese who are in btc since when you believe China entered the market in these assumptions? You are assuming that if the whole Chinese market leaves (which it won't) we will be back to the same number of people holding the same number of coins.

Add into that the traders who happily trade on both exchanges and your 10,000 figure for just Chinese shrinks somewhat.

A guesstimate at best obviously but more than 10,000 traders for sure. Gox had a million accounts, can't you glean something from that!



Um, no what happens if that section invests more fiat? It may be the same size but guess which way the price goes.

Nobody can tell for sure where the buying sprees are coming from that's why, you'd be a fool to suggest you could for sure for a start. Also unless coins are transferred from the west to China or vice versa the buying sprees in % holdings per markets doesn't change regardless of price.

Edited for formatting.

 

i would agree with this. i also think if and when we see a new bull cycle (if it has not already begun) then we might see alts plummet against BTC as they did last Novemeber

I for one think investing in alts at this point risky.  There is a good chance we are in a bull run that will turn out to be a part of a bearish continuation. As alts lag, an investment in alts could turn south quickly. All the alts are still at historically high levels vs. where the were prior to the last bubble including LTC.

I would think many people invested in Ripple are switching over to BTC after this announcement 

https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/

The first circled section is the Chinese new Year's week, Jan/31--Feb/06, when banks were closed in China. The drop on Feb/07 may be people needing cash to pay bills.   

In the Chinese exchanges, that drop was only ~5%.  It was followed by an ~8% drop on Feb/10, apparently right after Mark's "bug in bitcoin" announcement.

Curiously on Bitstamp the drop on Feb/07 was deeper than in China, about ~8%, and there was no drop on Feb/10.  Perhaps because the West misinterpreted the Feb/07 Chinese drop as being some bad news from MtGOX, but laughed at Mark's claim on Feb/10?

In the second circled area, the drop on Mar/27 was clearly due to the Caixin leak about the PBoC "strenghtening" circular.

The small drop on May/11, after the third circled area, may have been the announcement by FXBTC that they were closing down.

Explanation

"But, Blitz!", Jorge said, "there cannot possibly be any way to determine if supply and demand 'finds itself in disequilibrium' as you call it. That'd be like, magic!"

Low volatility causes high volatility when inevitably, supply and demand finds itself in disequilibrium, which doesn't need any "reason" to happen.

Theories for this week's spurts:

(1) @walsoraj suggested (seriously or not) that some large exchange may soon block CNY withdrawals without prior notice.  Traders who got that info are buying BTC now because they expect the price in that exchange to go throught the roof once that happens.  presumably they are privileged clients with a way to take the CNY out in the end.

(2) The Chinese exchanges are about to open offshore sections.  Chinese clients who can trade there are buying BTC in order to move their money to those exchanges without paying the bank fees and limits to convert from CNY to CNH or whatever currency they use there.

(3) Some people claim that SecondMarket's BIT fund only buys bitcoins for its investors on Thursdays.  Perhaps they got extra investors this week and/or their off-market sources were not enough.  (Their minimum investment is 25'000 USD = 50 BTC.)

(4) Someone offered to exchange a large pile of altcoins for BTC, and interested parties scrambled to buy the BTC.

(5) Someone got insider news of some significant positive development in the West.

What else?

To me, the spurts of the last two days look like insider trading; each separate jump being another tradr or group of traders getting some significant news.  That would rule out (3), maybe (2) too.

EDIT: typos.

Indian exchanges would be huge on a fundamental level, because India is a significant destination for remittances from immigrant labor in the Arab gulf states.

anyone think there's anything to these Indian exchanges opening up? you think demand will develop there like we saw in China last year?

This is completely flawed logic. Incoming fiat would be likely to raise prices but the two are loosely coupled.

Of course, a growing market is preferred.

the mining algorithm they were using had a bug, which determined how many coins would be rewarded

correction:

Was Darkcoin Instamined?

~2mn coins were issued in the first 48 hours due to problems with the difficulty readjustment. That represents approximately 10-15% of the total money supply that will ever be issued.

The majority of these coins were distributed through the market in the following weeks and months at very low price levels* (0.0000x BTC per DRK to 0.000x BTC per DRK) and a lot of them were also absorbed in the April/May 2014 price increase.

• Examples of prices and selling action almost two weeks after launch:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4861558

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4889177

really? i had no idea. any idea how those coins were distributed? was it just a handful of insiders who developed the coin like an actual premine? or was there just a general mining frenzy?