Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27661. (Read 26712668 times)

Right, it must be all that infrastructure and adoption that has caused the price to drop from 800$ to 450$ over the last 3 months. 

Let's see what effect that will have on price when (if?) China drops out of the picture.  At present I cannot see any, there is that elephant blocking the view. 

There were also many negative developments in the West since November, to counter those positive ones.  Such as the IRS interpretation, the continuing arrests from the SilkRoad case, the MtGOX heist and the dozens of other similar "accidents", the Neo&Bee fiasco, the Fortress embarassment, the bank account closures in Australia and the US, ...


I never claimed that.  Surely the price went up in Oct-Nov because the Chinese traders bought a lot of the coins that were in the Western market.  How many, I have no idea; but it must have been a large fraction, in order to lift the price from ~120$ to ~1200$.  It could have been 90% of the coins, why not?  In any case, if price went up from 120$ when they came buying into the market, we can expect it to go down to 120$ if (when?) they cash out and leave the market.

Also Leon Li claimed to have 10'000 active clients; discounting the hype factor, it seems reasonable to guess 10'000 active traders for all the Chinese exchanges combined.  How many coins does the average trader own?  How many traders are active in the Western exchanges, and how many coins do they own?

Do you have any estimate of those numbers?


I do not ignore that, quite the opposite! It is those who cry "fake" who ignore that.

If you prefer to put it that way:  Bitcoin was confined to a tiny section of the market; with China it got another small section,  now it may lose that and go back to the tiny section it had before.  To get a new and 10x bigger rally it needs to find another small section, that is 10 times less small than the Chinese one was.

It is bizarre to see those "experienced bitcoin traders" scoffing at me when they cannot even tell whether the current buying sprees are coming from China or from the West.   

i'd love for bitstamp to get give us some margin. then maybe it could compete with the best of em

i do think Chinese exchange volumes are pumped by margin, western traders and potentially faking of volume by exchanges (a la OKcoin)

Nah, I don't buy that "this altcoin doesn't have anything BTC doesn't". Nobody cares about that apart from marketing purposes in pumps. Both LTC and DOGE will get pumped again, and again, it's just matter of time and if we'll see divergence in alts as it was before December, that's tricky part.

I liked divergence before but since I am already invested in some alts it would be pretty shitty if it would occur at the moment.

Explanation

Just noting for those that don't think China matters, volume during this runup on Huobi (one of 2 big Chinese exchanges) has been 4x that of Bitstamp (Westerner's largest exchange).

Both Huobi and OKCoin represent 60% of the global Bitcoin exchange market.  Bitstamp is 7%.

Darkcoin saved my alt portfolio, but i think other ults will start pumping, when the new crypto proponents enter, this space, (they all dislike bitcoin for some reason and justify using alts, just wait until the feedback loop starts)

At the start of the bitcoin run up from $120 to $1,000 i picked up a fiew LTC at $3 it then outperformed bitcoin i believe for the reason above. I never thought it could take off, but it did.  The same thing will happen to a few select alts, not sure how LTC will go though, but it will be something to monitor.

Maybe thats true. Maybe not. Its not like you really have any data to support this theory. Maybe buy and hold works perfect for you. Maybe trading works better for others. Me, I needed to have at least a few X my initial investment off the table to not feel despair in a bear market

Anger? Not at all.
It just amazes me when i read all these stories here every day. Buying, selling, drawing lines, waiting to buy back in blah blah.
I buy and hold and it works perfect. And i'm pretty sure my profit if i'd sell now would be better than 9 out of 10 of the traders here.
But no, i'm not angry. Just keep using all these trading theories. Totally fine  with me.

Maybe, not sure about all that, but tbh, I part of me thinks cheap XRP in the next months (especially if BTC bubbles up and alts diverge again like November) could be a very good buy.... dunno if i will risk much on it though. I did manage to profit nicely on 2 XRP bubbles

Of course he could be evil, buy this opportunity to buy more. Then after buying publically announce his trick (which would make prices spike). And then dump into the elevated market (unannounced).

Lots of money chasing the BTC rise.  Usually once BTC levels off some of the money flows back to the Alts.

LOL! There you go, biggest premine there ever was. What could ever go wrong?!?!

(referring to XRP of course)

Sure, you could have gone "full in at 400". Quite a few did (or even below that). But the same mindset of unbridled optimism prevented a lot of people to sell at 1000. Or 900. Or 800. Or at all. You get the picture.

Point being, not everyone who bought back "late" (i.e. now) sold early early enough to buy at a profit, but not everyone who buys back now does so at a loss.

Which makes your anger at those who get in now puzzling to me. Let them buy back whenever they want. Be happy that they do so at all, I'd say.

I agree and I am looking forward to some alts dying off. Hopefully when the next overall alt bubble (ie not just darkcoin etc) the alt economy will have pruned back a bit, easier to ride the bubble that way and not get caught holding the wrong coins.

It's judgment day for the altcoins, a whole bunch of them will have to die because we simply have too many of them. A few will survive and will come out stronger I think, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Sure. Just wait till it reaches 600. You could've gone full in at 400 but why do that if you can spend 200 a coin more. You have to be sure, right?

So the third closes later today right?

Explanation

Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?

Love the poll.

800 on june 1st. Would be epic.