I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't.
I have a
simple model that shows (among others) that after bubble pop, as long as the price is 0.2 or more log-units over the trendline,
it is not possible to sell at a profit in 1-6 months timeframe. It is quite sobering: by selling at $628 today, the buyback at a
profit is guaranteed for many months to come.
Chances that the model ends up faulty (that despite their mutual differences, 2 previous bubbles have something intrinsic in common that the 3rd does not have) are 20-30%, which means that the odds are way in favor. With this kind of odds it is Kelly optimal to risk about 40% of your net worth.
Any doubts I had that you might have been as knowledgeable as you claim to be have just been washed away in one stroke.
Sadly your mind apparently cannot grasp the concept that in a chaotic, dynamic system, what happened in the past cannot be used to predict the future unless the circumstances are exactly the same.
Not to mention: it was far more likely that the two bubbles would show some mutual similarity (both being bubbles) than no similarity at all. But just because those similarities exist does not mean should be understood as anything more than stochastic noise; it could have just as easily been any other of the countless possible permutations that you would now be using to "guarantee profit".
I'm close to ignoring him to be honest. He's the type that says very little with a lot of words, but I doubt his sincerity and skills. And while he certainly spends a lot of time telling everyone how much money he has, I've seen no evidence of that. I have however seen that picture of him posing in front of someone else's Rolls Royce and pretending it's his.
Maybe he has rich friends, but hey, there are a hell of a lot of new rich people in the world as of the last few months, many of us in this thread included.
I don't pander to ego generally. It annoys me. And it's often those who spend so long telling everyone how amazing they are that are end up being quite the opposite in reality.
Less big man talk, and if you want people to actually pay attention to what you say, give them a reason to.
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