Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32206.

Its About Sharing

legendary

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Antifragile

Quote from: Rampion on November 08, 2013, 01:48:23 PM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on November 08, 2013, 01:44:41 PM

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 08, 2013, 01:34:53 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 10:30:35 AM

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64
Then we can say X/269=3.64... X= $980
Is that our top? Grin

I have to say that's the top I have in my mind. My initial plan is to realize some profits at $700, and some more at $970. I mean... x30 profit on average is good enough to cash in some fiat for me. But I will keep most of my BTC stash for the long run

Brother Rampion, hope you are well!

You bring up a great point. I really wonder about selling some at 700 ish (to make up for my initial investment, or maybe 1/2 of it). Then just watch the next 5 years unfold.

Now, when BTC goes to 10,000 dollars, that is when we need to start giving away BTC's to organizations to change the world. Just think of what Satoshi could do there...
Remember, this is a disruptive technology, let's disrupt.

IAS

ps - Yes, the mining investments were bad for me too. But, we will still make our money back at higher prices, so just look at it as a hobby that pays for itself.

Loaded

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whale eater

Quote from: 2_Thumbs_Up on November 08, 2013, 01:14:35 PM

Quote from: Rampion on November 08, 2013, 12:47:54 PM

The amount of coins on sale on the exchange is shrinking fast. Only 6k on sale on BTCChina, 7k on Bitstamp, 11k on Gox.

This is the "all time low" in terms of BTC on sale. Just think about how Avalon holds 65k coins in one address.

In my opinion is not a very good sign, it would be better for the trend to be fueled by new money in instead of scarcity of supply - just because the scarcity can be easily reversed by only one big holder.

I guess this is the nature of "penny stock market", and BTC behaves completely as a penny stock market.

Tighten your seat belts.

Thing is, more coins than ever are locked up for the time being and can't make it to the exchanges in the foreseeable future.

The FBI has 174.000 BTC and probably won't be able to sell them until after the case against Ulbricht

Bitcoin Investment Trust has 60.000+ BTC locked up that they are obliged to hold on to for their customers for probably at least a year (the number is based on the fact that they had 15.000.000 USD invested when the exchange rate was ~250 USD/BTC). This number will probably rise quite a bit in the coming months as they will buy more bitcoins to supply to new customers.

Possibly, the success of BIT will make other high profile individuals/companies imitate them and start buying up coins to start competing businesses. This would lead to additionally 10ks of coins being looked up for the time being. This is just speculation though, but a fairly reasonable assumption as far as I'm concerned.

You also have the Winklevii twins claiming they had 1%+ of all bitcoins in the beginning of the year waiting for their ETF. That's at least 110.000 BTC.

We also have Chamath Palihapitiya, ex Facebook-executive, who claimed to have 5.000.000 USD invested in BTC at the end of october. At the exchange rate back then, that would be 25.000+ BTC. He also said he was still looking to acquire more.

And there is a very high likelihood we have unknown high profile investors who have made private bets but hasn't said so officially. This is hard to quantify, but I belive this is at least a multiple of 10ks of bitcoins being locked up for the time being in anonymous rich investors' wallets.

If you add it all up, far more coins are being "on hold" right now, than ever before.

40000 here that will not be for sale any time soon. Might move more from my active trading wallet.

Nemesis

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: dserrano5 on November 08, 2013, 01:46:57 PM

Quote from: gandhibt on November 08, 2013, 01:37:04 PM

Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?

Obviously, because of the "loss" part. It's difficult to do it the first times, then you get used to that warm feeling "hah good thing I bought again, it's going UP!".

+ 1... everyone should just buy and hold.

sell btc to SPEND on real things or services!

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: Its About Sharing on November 08, 2013, 01:44:41 PM

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 08, 2013, 01:34:53 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 10:30:35 AM

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64
Then we can say X/269=3.64... X= $980
Is that our top? Grin

I have to say that's the top I have in my mind. My initial plan is to realize some profits at $700, and some more at $970. I mean... x30 profit on average is good enough to cash in some fiat for me. But I will keep most of my BTC stash for the long run

Nemo1024

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Activity: 1680

Merit: 1014

I have an interesting decision to make. I'll not be able to trade over the week-end, and probably for the whole next week.
Most of the coins were moved to a cold wallet.
Now, what to do with the rest...
Initially I planned to sell all and place scattered buy orders from below 250 and down to 150 with 3-5 dollar distance, and see which of them would get filled during my absence.
Looking at the latest development and extrapolating what happened in April, I am starting to get inclined to do the opposite: place scattered sell orders from 350 and up to 600, and hope that the top will not arrive before that, to subsequently re-buy at the new level, which I think will be around 400 (+/-100).
Any input from the experts?

dserrano5

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Activity: 1974

Merit: 1030

Quote from: gandhibt on November 08, 2013, 01:37:04 PM

Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?

Obviously, because of the "loss" part. It's difficult to do it the first times, then you get used to that warm feeling "hah good thing I bought again, it's going UP!".

Wekkel

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Activity: 3122

Merit: 1538

yes

Its better to avoid big price dips than anything else. Get out soon enough saves capital. If too soon, just wait for the next opportunity.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 08, 2013, 01:34:53 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 10:30:35 AM

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64
Then we can say X/269=3.64... X= $980
Is that our top? Grin

gandhibt

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Most of my trades end up buying back in with a loss, that's the best way to trade in my opinion =)

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: gandhibt on November 08, 2013, 01:37:04 PM

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 08, 2013, 01:34:53 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 10:30:35 AM

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?

Because its very hard to see that you fucked up and that you have less BTC than you had on beforehand. For me that's the worst feeling

jojo69

legendary

Activity: 3388

Merit: 4775

diamond-handed zealot

Quote from: gandhibt on November 08, 2013, 01:37:04 PM

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 08, 2013, 01:34:53 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 10:30:35 AM

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?

because as soon as you do we correct down to $150 for 3 weeks

adamstgBit

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1037

Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: gandhibt on November 08, 2013, 01:37:04 PM

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 08, 2013, 01:34:53 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 10:30:35 AM

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?

it just is Cry

gandhibt

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 08, 2013, 01:34:53 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 10:30:35 AM

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?

BlueTemplar

full member

Activity: 164

Merit: 100

Gone for a minute now back again

Quote from: justusranvier on November 08, 2013, 10:30:35 AM

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Sitarow

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Activity: 1792

Merit: 1047

gandhibt

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

You don't have to sell before the "big crash", you can sell in the first rebound. This is the big secret that keeps your stress levels low. Sure you lose some %, but this is a very risk free tactic vs. try to catch the top.

theonewhowaskazu

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: adamstgBit on November 08, 2013, 01:07:44 PM

the trajectory is pretty clear, to the moon! Cheesy

At this point the question is whether we can get caught in the gravitational influence of mars.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: chriswilmer on November 08, 2013, 01:15:40 PM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on November 08, 2013, 01:08:12 PM

For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.

I'm pretty sure the people who are the richest in the Bitcoin world are the ones who just held.

I second that. I've made quite a few BTC by trading during the bear market after the obvious bubble pop, but that's just an "impasse" in my usual strategy (buy & hold). There's a clear chance of increasing your stash when a bubble pops, that happened in 2011 and happened this year too. But 99% of the time buy&hold is a winner, and the only purpose of trading in my book is to increase one's BTC stash.

Additionally, most of the times I spent BTC I fucked up. I sold a few hundreds coins to buy ASIC miners, and I made back only 50% of them so far - with the increasing BTC/USD exchange rate noobs will keep throwing fiat to ASIC miners like there is no tomorrow, driving the difficulty crazy high just because they do not realize that 90% of the times is better to buy BTC directly. This has been historically true, like its historically true that the ones who first bought and never sold are doing better than anybody else.

One of the few investments in BTC that were good to me were LTC (bought at 0.002 and sold at 0.012) and MSC (bought from Exodus address, not realized profit but x10 so far), most of the others I screwed up (my "cRipple" investment lost 75% of its BTC value).

On the contrary, buying BTC has always been a GOOD decision. This is historically true. Nobody lost money by buy&hold so far. This is a hard cold fact. Personally, I've bought most between $10 and $20, but I also bought at $130ish - and it has always been a good choice. BTC never fails on you Wink

crazy_rabbit

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RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME

Quote from: chriswilmer on November 08, 2013, 01:15:40 PM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on November 08, 2013, 01:08:12 PM

For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.

I'm pretty sure the people who are the richest in the Bitcoin world are the ones who just held.

Yeah. I keep telling myself that.

chriswilmer

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Quote from: crazy_rabbit on November 08, 2013, 01:08:12 PM

For a non-pro trader, it's really incredibly hard to discern the best course of action at the moment. Sell or hold, sell or hold. It's so crazy high it doesn't make sense. But it was so crazy high it didn't make sense 24 hours ago too, and now look where we are. The incredulity of it all makes $500 or $100 on monday seem entirely possible.

I'm pretty sure the people who are the richest in the Bitcoin world are the ones who just held.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32206. (Read 26713007 times)