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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32371. (Read 26712938 times)

legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1047
7 Day Trading Volume

MtGox,
112,250BTC Sold
102,759BTC Bought
215,010BTC Total Volume
<- 4%

Bitstamp,
52,755BTC Sold
58,750BTC Bought
111,506BTC Total Volume
5% ->

BTC-China,
86,913BTC Sold
84,709BTC Bought
171,623BTC Total Volume
<- 1%

BTC-e,
43,509BTC Sold
44,318BTC Bought
87,827BTC Total Volume
1% ->

VirtEx,
2,348BTC Sold
3,302BTC Bought
5,651BTC Total Volume
17% ->

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
You're speaking as if "new blood" exists in a vacuum outside of the rest of the market, as if traders haven't been speculating on this news at all. That's ridiculous. Sure, new blood is entering the market. Much of it won't have gotten money to the exchanges, either, by the time we see a reversal. But, according to your theory, because of news they read last week or last month, they'll keep buyingbe more inclined to buy. Right?

You're actually supporting my point.  

#1 is the time delay you mentioned.  We really don't know what the incoming money will look like, be it flood or trickle.  Traders have been proven time and again to not have any ability to tell the future than anyone else so they cannot "price in" anything.

#2 people won't buy anything the first time they hear of bitcoin.  The odds of them starting up increases with sustained and interesting news articles.  No one here yesterday thought the bitcoin-buying-apartment story would be front page reddit material today.  Who knows what news will come out tomorrow.  Will the price go up $100 because this creates a ripple that will eventually catch the eye of some uber whale? I dunno. The "traders" don't either.  

EDIT: Though, if we really are talking about the news from a month ago, then I could accept that the price could be mostly set in.  I'm talking more about this general surge of news we're experiencing now.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
Its still possible that the Chinese exchanges are just full of day traders and manipulators. Its not like any of us have been to China (or have you?) and actually  verified that Chinese are buying up and holding large amounts of coins. The charts don't lie though, and the bearish wedge is worrying me.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 508
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.  Undecided

Ok a tiny bit of bear. Isn't all the good news priced in already?

No.

If you go out into the real world the vast majority of people still really haven't heard of bitcoin, let alone own any.  The more big news there is it'll push that many more people towards actually owning bitcoin and participating in the economy.  I don't think anyone here besides the trolliest of bears thinks that bitcoin has reached full market saturation.

That's not what he's saying --  nothing to do with market saturation. The market, by definition, has already been pricing in the news. Speculators aren't going to wait until the whole world knows about bitcoin to buy some.

That is what he's saying. He asked if the news has been priced in. It hasn't. Why? Because the people who will be buying/using bitcoin are just now reading it.

I mean, unless you think those people woke up yesterday and thought "Man, I'm going to read something tomorrow. Better buy today!"

You're speaking as if "new blood" exists in a vacuum outside of the rest of the market, as if traders haven't been speculating on this news at all. That's ridiculous. Sure, new blood is entering the market. Much of it won't have gotten money to the exchanges, either, by the time we see a reversal. But, according to your theory, because of news they read last week or last month, they'll keep buying. Right?

legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.  Undecided

If the 233$ peak was wave 5, and we saw the 3 down sub-sub-waves, followed by 2 up sub-sub-waves, of which
the second is much larger than the first, then we should see another 3 down sub-sub-waves.
Those new 3 down don't have to look like the previous 3 down, but if they do, we are on a descending trend.
If they look different, then it's possible to resume an uptrend and reach an ATH.
Right now, we already are in the 4th sub-sub-sub-wave of the second sub-sub-wave, so I expect to go down.
But for now the Chinese keep buying and Gox and other exchanges struggle to follow.
Maybe the Chinese will write a new chapter to the EW theory, exceptions to the rules?

You sure about that?

That's my analysis, after looking at several scenarios. But with bitcoin I can't be truly sure about the future moves of the market.
Just wait a bit, maybe the Chinese will overturn the normal wave pattern. If enough fiat enters their exchanges, and more panic buy follows, it may be possible.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.  Undecided

Ok a tiny bit of bear. Isn't all the good news priced in already?

No.

If you go out into the real world the vast majority of people still really haven't heard of bitcoin, let alone own any.  The more big news there is it'll push that many more people towards actually owning bitcoin and participating in the economy.  I don't think anyone here besides the trolliest of bears thinks that bitcoin has reached full market saturation.

That's not what he's saying --  nothing to do with market saturation. The market, by definition, has already been pricing in the news. Speculators aren't going to wait until the whole world knows about bitcoin to buy some.

That is what he's saying. He asked if the news has been priced in. It hasn't. Why? Because the people who will be buying/using bitcoin are just now reading it.

I mean, unless you think those people woke up yesterday and thought "Man, I'm going to read something tomorrow. Better buy today!"
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.  Undecided

Ok a tiny bit of bear. Isn't all the good news priced in already? That is why the price is at $210. Bitcoin has been in the world news so many times. If you are new to Bitcoin because of the current news and look back at the price, you are basically buying in at the top now, is that a good idea? I arrived late to the party in the beginning of may and waited, which was a good decision, bought in in july at around $63 on Bitstamp, a bit lucky though.

And this $27 to $855,000 story, I am sure will give a lot of people an arriving late to the party feeling, so they can't be bothered.

You are right. I may add that price is far above long term, already exponential, growth line (around $80), and returns this year are now equally high as 2011 year (1300%). I would think that percentage increases must go down over time as market cap goes up, so indeed: risky.

However, it is possible that adoption, and price, follow an S curve and that we are now in the first curve where adoption, and price, actually go up faster and faster. This means the uprise of 2013 would be considerably stronger percentage wise, not weaker as the similar 2011 rise.

In case of doubt choose for the side of safety. Question is, from which perspective: that bitcoin is money, or fiat is money?
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 508
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.  Undecided

Ok a tiny bit of bear. Isn't all the good news priced in already?

No.

If you go out into the real world the vast majority of people still really haven't heard of bitcoin, let alone own any.  The more big news there is it'll push that many more people towards actually owning bitcoin and participating in the economy.  I don't think anyone here besides the trolliest of bears thinks that bitcoin has reached full market saturation.

That's not what he's saying --  nothing to do with market saturation. The market, by definition, has already been pricing in the news. Speculators aren't going to wait until the whole world knows about bitcoin to buy some.
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1047
full member
Activity: 202
Merit: 100
Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.  Undecided

If the 233$ peak was wave 5, and we saw the 3 down sub-sub-waves, followed by 2 up sub-sub-waves, of which
the second is much larger than the first, then we should see another 3 down sub-sub-waves.
Those new 3 down don't have to look like the previous 3 down, but if they do, we are on a descending trend.
If they look different, then it's possible to resume an uptrend and reach an ATH.
Right now, we already are in the 4th sub-sub-sub-wave of the second sub-sub-wave, so I expect to go down.
But for now the Chinese keep buying and Gox and other exchanges struggle to follow.
Maybe the Chinese will write a new chapter to the EW theory, exceptions to the rules?

You sure about that?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.  Undecided

Ok a tiny bit of bear. Isn't all the good news priced in already?

No.

If you go out into the real world the vast majority of people still really haven't heard of bitcoin, let alone own any.  The more big news there is it'll push that many more people towards actually owning bitcoin and participating in the economy.  I don't think anyone here besides the trolliest of bears thinks that bitcoin has reached full market saturation.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Ultranode
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Indeed, although good news has a 1-2 week delay normally before it affects the price.

It also seems to me that people are not only talking about valuation but are starting to discover that Bitcoin can actually solve some pretty huge problems we have.


And create at least two larger problems for each one it solves.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
If you read those news articles and your a geek, your probably already own bitcoin. If your not a geek, your probably an average Joe that will look up the bitcoin wiki site and go..what the hell? crypto what?

There's a lot of education going on on reddit: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/oct/29/bitcoin-forgotten-currency-norway-oslo-home

People are even sending $27 bitcoin tips to newbs, who are then quite dumbstruck.

An awesome opportunity to increase exposure in a positive way.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
newbie
Activity: 51
Merit: 0
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Somebody hit me with some bear, please! Not enough bears around here -- this makes me worry.  Undecided

Ok a tiny bit of bear. Isn't all the good news priced in already? That is why the price is at $210. Bitcoin has been in the world news so many times. If you are new to Bitcoin because of the current news and look back at the price, you are basically buying in at the top now, is that a good idea? I arrived late to the party in the beginning of may and waited, which was a good decision, bought in in july at around $63 on Bitstamp, a bit lucky though.

And this $27 to $855,000 story, I am sure will give a lot of people an arriving late to the party feeling, so they can't be bothered.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Indeed, although good news has a 1-2 week delay normally before it affects the price.

It also seems to me that people are not only talking about valuation but are starting to discover that Bitcoin can actually solve some pretty huge problems we have.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
http://www.businessinsider.com/man-buys-bitcoin-forgets-about-it-remembers-finds-a-fortune-2013-10

"Kristoffer Koch invested 150 kroner ($26.60) in 5,000 bitcoins in 2009, after discovering them during the course of writing a thesis on encryption"

moral of the story?

buy $26.60 of btc, and wait 4 years

That thing is on the reddit frontpage (4th place) currently.



is he holding?
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
http://www.businessinsider.com/man-buys-bitcoin-forgets-about-it-remembers-finds-a-fortune-2013-10

"Kristoffer Koch invested 150 kroner ($26.60) in 5,000 bitcoins in 2009, after discovering them during the course of writing a thesis on encryption"

moral of the story?

buy $26.60 of btc, and wait 4 years

That thing is on the reddit frontpage (4th place) currently.
hero member
Activity: 841
Merit: 1000
Why so slow? Everything bitcoin related is blowing up at the moment.

Indeed, although good news has a 1-2 week delay normally before it affects the price.

But that $27 to $855,000 story is everywhere. And just after the Novogratz thing... uh oh  Cool

A little conspiracy: Western media bring up this story encouraged by governments. Western governments are scared that the chinese will run away with Bitcoins, so they encourage their population to buy and seize some for them selfs ( FBI )  Grin Grin Grin
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